earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 3z SREF were more north than the 21z SREF. It gets light precip up to NYC. The newer 09z SREF are south by over 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The newer 09z SREF are south by over 100 miles. Yep, looks like this threat is about over unless a miracle happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The newer 09z SREF are south by over 100 miles. This is a DC south storm with perhaps some light snow for southern NJ. Its pretty apparent now that the cutoff low will stay closed off way too long and that would stop the interaction needed with the northern stream. The cutoff needs to open up much earlier then what is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 12z Nam is still way south. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 12z Nam is way more amplified than he 6z run. Look how close it is to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM phases the cutoff and the northern stream late but a trailering low produces a lot of precip south of the area. Good run for the DC crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 On the 12z NAM, the 500mb vorticity is all sheared and strung out along the positive tiltled trough axis at 54hrs. It's not going to come much further north like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM phases the cutoff and the northern stream late but a trailering low produces a lot of precip south of the area. Good run for the DC crew. It just misses the area to the south. Big improvements, although not sure if it will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 On the 12z NAM, the 500mb vorticity is all sheared and strung out along the positive tiltled trough axis at 54hrs. It's not going to come much further north like that. True but its happend in previous years - this still has a shot of coming as far north as NYC. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT OZ. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 you really don't even have a remote shot with the NAM.. The sounding tells the story... Aside from the fact that it's nowhere near saturated, look at the wind profile.... kiss of death... winds are backing with height.... aka.. cold air advection.. aka.. sinking motion in the atmosphere... not only do you not have any forcing mechanism, you've got the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 12z RGEM looks a little more amplified than the Nam. Have to see the GGEM if there is any precip around our area. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GIVE IT UP WINTER IS DEAD sping is spung and i couldn't be more thrilled at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GIVE IT UP WINTER IS DEAD sping is spung and i couldn't be more thrilled at this point Again, how can spring sprung when it never de-sprung. I'm still waiting for the damn flowers to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Again, how can spring sprung when it never de-sprung. I'm still waiting for the damn flowers to die. it's just funny how people keep posting about threats/cold shots when every single one ends up not materializing.... admittedly we had that storm a few weeks ago but that vanished within two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 12z RGEM looks a little more amplified than the Nam. Have to see the GGEM if there is any precip around our area. http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif One thing is we just got to kick this low a few hundred miles north as it tracks from the southwest USA to the east. In the weather business, never say never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If we do not get precip. with the weekend storm, we will probably go a whole week plus without precip., quite impressive for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I through in the towel for December and then January...I'm not ready to cancel February yet...Or March for that matter...I'm not expecting much but I don't think we will get shut out like 2002...2002 did have a cold spell in April with three mornings below freezing and a cold first day of Spring...It still wasn't enough to keep from setting the record for the least amount of freezing days in a season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I through in the towel for December and then January...I'm not ready to cancel February yet...Or March for that matter...I'm not expecting much but I don't think we will get shut out like 2002...2002 did have a cold spell in April with three mornings below freezing and a cold first day of Spring...It still wasn't enough to keep from setting the record for the least amount of freezing days in a season... Agree Unc, your analogs have been fairly good this winter if I remember correctly; I think you called for feb to be snowier compared to dec and jan (which this year all we need is a light storm, pathetic, but true). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 it's just funny how people keep posting about threats/cold shots when every single one ends up not materializing.... admittedly we had that storm a few weeks ago but that vanished within two days. lol so true. and funny they think they actually have it all figured out and than bam reality hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 it's just funny how people keep posting about threats/cold shots when every single one ends up not materializing.... admittedly we had that storm a few weeks ago but that vanished within two days. We had 4" 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Again, how can spring sprung when it never de-sprung. I'm still waiting for the damn flowers to die. I hope spring is warmer than this, we might be stuck with this till May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I hope spring is warmer than this, we might be stuck with this till May! The ultimate kick in the face would be a 2009 type of progression - fog and 50s/60s until the end of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The ultimate kick in the face would be a 2009 type of progression - fog and 50s/60s until the end of June. Hopefully next year El Nino for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS is further north . Does not mean nothing at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The ukie is so south, it leaves even DC practically dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 And the GEFS are well north of the operational. The .25" precip line touches the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 I was just going to post that.Must be some weenie solutions in the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I through in the towel for December and then January...I'm not ready to cancel February yet...Or March for that matter...I'm not expecting much but I don't think we will get shut out like 2002...2002 did have a cold spell in April with three mornings below freezing and a cold first day of Spring...It still wasn't enough to keep from setting the record for the least amount of freezing days in a season... I agree that we should get another 1 or 2 small to moderate snowfalls. With a Feb snowfall at least the accumulations stick around for a while but the March accumulations melt away too quickly. Wishful thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 And the GEFS are well north of the operational. The .25" precip line touches the south shore. anyone remember the GEFS for the Feb 5, 2010..had MAJOR precip getting up here...nope, didnt happen..and neither is this...we wont see ONE FLAKE OR DROP of precip from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Strong chance that the GFS ensemble mean is out to lunch with a few shots of vodka too. For whatever reason they have been worse than awful lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.