CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This one is probably a decent snow event 8 out of 10 times but the southern disturbance cutting off basically kills it. we would need a phase pretty far west to get precip up here, and even then the low pressure sytem would still probably not turn up the coast. I don't like where that northern stream stream feature is dropping in, too far east and it spells supression for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Rgem at 48 is in process of phasing and amplifying. Much different then the nam. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Gfs still has low closed off at hour 48. The phased models have it open by this point, which allows the partial phase to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Gfs still has low closed off at hour 48. The phased models have it open by this point, which allows the partial phase to occur. More north than 18z at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 More north than 18z at least. Yeah definitely. Brings measurable precip to central NJ this run. Similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah definitely. Brings measurable precip to central NJ this run. Similar to the euro. How much? How far north in C. NJ? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 How much? How far north in C. NJ? Rossi The real precip is from Cape May on south. Everything north of there is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah definitely. Brings measurable precip to central NJ this run. Similar to the euro. .01 to KPHL and .06 to ACY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 .01 to KPHL and .06 to ACY.... Yup. Similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 And now the ukie is way south and completely misses the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 How much? How far north in C. NJ? Rossi Mount Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Hearing the GGEM is wet - how north does the precip get? It looks warm, but that's no surprise with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Hearing the GGEM is wet - how north does the precip get? It looks warm, but that's no surprise with the GGEM. Central NJ..slightly further north then the NAM/GFS However south of 12 Z at 72 hrs with QPF shield and low placement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Central NJ..slightly further north then the NAM/GFS However south of 12 Z at 72 hrs with QPF shield and low placement... So it's wetter where there is precip, but not further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If the vortex wasn't so far east in Canada, this would of gone better for us. Instead, the NW flow much stronger, between the vortex over Eastern Queebec, and the big ridge 500mb ridge over Canada/US border, prevent this system coming further north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 0z gefs is north of the op and the GGEM is still well north of the Nam and GFS. This is not going to be resolved until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 0z gefs is north of the op and the GGEM is still well north of the Nam and GFS. This is not going to be resolved until tomorrow night. How far north do the gefs get the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 00z GEFS were actually much more amplified/phased than the 12 and 18z means. They like to throw in some clown solutions at this range usually. Should be noted that even so, they barely give us precipitation. .10" line might not even touch NYC just glancing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro? Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Heard that the Euro was slightly more amplified but the precip stays south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nada. Someone in the KPHL thread said it was further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro? If you must know, its flat, alittle south of the op gfs. This threat has been a dud for us for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If you must know, its flat, alittle south of the op gfs. This threat has been a dud for us for awhile. With a north trend continuing tomorrow, we could maybe squeeze out an inch or two. More if the models are way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The euro did go north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Take a look at 500mb maps on WU, for the ECMWF. Not only is cut-off low being sheared by the northern shortwave, but it's also being squashed by the big ridge to the NW. I don't see how makes it still well organzied towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The euro did go north from 12z. Anthony this is the snowfall at 60-63 hrs ...after this it goes back south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf054.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I see this staying south of the area. At least for now. The flow aloft is NW and that will look to thwart any clouds/qpf away from the area. Looks dry thru TUE. The last time the GGEM had a storm coming north into the area a couple of days ago, it was an epic fail. it has been an outlier of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 3z SREF were more north than the 21z SREF. It gets light precip up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.