MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GGEM,JMA and Nogaps are more amplified than the Nam and GFS. Euro and Ukie are in between both of those camps. The latest GEFS members are more amplified and wetter than the op.It can go either way. It all depends on the timing of the northern stream and the strength of the confluence to the north of the area. It should be interesting to see this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GGEM,JMA and Nogaps are more amplified than the Nam and GFS. Euro and Ukie are in between both of those camps. The latest GEFS members are more amplified and wetter than the op.It can go either way. It all depends on the timing of the northern stream and the strength of the confluence to the north of the area. It should be interesting to see this unfold. The confluence is the northern piece of energy. If it phases with the cutoff, you get a northerly solution. If not, it acts as confluence and squashes the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GGEM,JMA and Nogaps are more amplified than the Nam and GFS. Euro and Ukie are in between both of those camps. The latest GEFS members are more amplified and wetter than the op.It can go either way. It all depends on the timing of the northern stream and the strength of the confluence to the north of the area. It should be interesting to see this unfold. I dont know anthony, nam which is usually north and amplified is pretty darn supressed, and I believe the GGEM has a tendency to always be over amplified. Just dont see the trough being sharp enough to deliver anything up here, of course I could be totally wrong, but this first pna trough is not that sharp.....hope it snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So much excitement over a supposed phase which the GEM shows to be about 1" of snow in NYC and the NOGAPS shows to be 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 I dont know anthony, nam which is usually north and amplified is pretty darn supressed, and I believe the GGEM has a tendency to always be over amplified. Just dont see the trough being sharp enough to deliver anything up here, of course I could be totally wrong, but this first pna trough is not that sharp.....hope it snows though. I will be happy if I see snow flurries. I agree that the PNA ridge with this storm isn't that good. The storm for next weekend is the one to look at more closely but we still can't disregard this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This thread has the most boom or bust potential ever, even 3 inches of snow from this storm anywhere would be a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This winter 1-2" would be big, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So much excitement over a supposed phase which the GEM shows to be about 1" of snow in NYC and the NOGAPS shows to be 2". At this point one number should be on everyone's mind...11.6 as in the inches at Central Park for the winter to crack the top 10 least snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The trough axis does not look favorable enough even with a cleaner phase to give us enough precipation to get accumulating snow. Philly south should still watch but i'd be shocked if nyc saw snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So much excitement over a supposed phase which the GEM shows to be about 1" of snow in NYC and the NOGAPS shows to be 2". With a winter like we had even an inch gets us excited. We'd take a surprise & overachieving snowfall late this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 At this point one number should be on everyone's mind...11.6 as in the inches at Central Park for the winter to crack the top 10 least snowiest. At this point I think I'd root for a final number lower than that, if the winter is going to suck, it might as well count for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 At this point I think I'd root for a final number lower than that, if the winter is going to suck, it might as well count for something Blasphemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 So much excitement over a supposed phase which the GEM shows to be about 1" of snow in NYC and the NOGAPS shows to be 2". True - but we are not exactly sure how potent this system will become plus Sunday is superbowl sunday - more folks on the roads then usual going to wherever for parties..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 And please post banter in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The confluence is the northern piece of energy. If it phases with the cutoff, you get a northerly solution. If not, it acts as confluence and squashes the storm. The whole evolution of the upper air setup makes the storm highly unlikely to bring us anything. But I guess there is the potential for the cutoff to slide E or the northern stream to dig far enough SW to back the upper level flow and bring us some light precip. I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The whole evolution of the upper air setup makes the storm highly unlikely to bring us anything. But I guess there is the potential for the cutoff to slide E or the northern stream to dig far enough SW to back the upper level flow and bring us some light precip. I wouldn't hang my hat on it. The h5 cutoff has to open up earlier as well, like the north models have. If it stays closed too long, the northern vort won't interact in time to bring the precip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GGEM,JMA and Nogaps are more amplified than the Nam and GFS. Euro and Ukie are in between both of those camps. The latest GEFS members are more amplified and wetter than the op.It can go either way. It all depends on the timing of the northern stream and the strength of the confluence to the north of the area. It should be interesting to see this unfold. The 18z GEFS individual members appear to have come closer to a single overall idea compared to the 0z run, but even so most of these members are still south of NYC or barely touching NYC with the snow. There's always going to be the few members that do show something bigger, but the same situation happened several other times this winter where a suppressed storm was shown to be further north by a few individual ensemble members but didn't verify (the DC snow event of 1/9 for example). Philadelphia could see perhaps some light snow out of this, but at best I can see how a couple of flakes make it here, there is some room for a northern trend from the latest GFS run but there's not much room for this to come far north enough to produce snow near or north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The whole evolution of the upper air setup makes the storm highly unlikely to bring us anything. But I guess there is the potential for the cutoff to slide E or the northern stream to dig far enough SW to back the upper level flow and bring us some light precip. I wouldn't hang my hat on it. It's a really delicate situation. The 0z runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It's a really delicate situation. The 0z runs will be telling. Delicate is not the best word to describe it -- I saw January 21 as "delicate" because it worked in our favor but was very close to not working out for several reasons. I think "unlikely" is better for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Delicate is not the best word to describe it -- I saw January 21 as "delicate" because it worked in our favor but was very close to not working out for several reasons. I think "unlikely" is better for this one. Ehh, a snow weenie would never give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ehh, a snow weenie would never give up There is a difference between knowing when it can't happen and knowing when it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 LOL, I barely blinked and someone deleted the link to the January 2000 storm article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 LOL, I barely blinked and someone deleted the link to the January 2000 storm article. I replied to him and it was gone. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Delicate is not the best word to describe it -- I saw January 21 as "delicate" because it worked in our favor but was very close to not working out for several reasons. I think "unlikely" is better for this one. Yeah, agreed. Posted a few days ago that I thought this weekend event was threading a needle within a needle. I think some of the trends we saw at 12z will end up being a tease, but we'll see what 00z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Just glancing at the mid and upper level height field at 36 hours on the 00z NAM -- this storm has very little chance of bringing precipitation to NYC's latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That northern vort is sharper than 12Z but the damn upper low over KS just does not budge, what we may need to happen is that the northern vort continues to be stronger and slower to the point its so late it catches the southern low as it finally ejects but that may be a virtual impossible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No chance with the cutoff low staying closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Not going to happen with the above upper level setup. Looks nice in Denver tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This one is probably a decent snow event 8 out of 10 times but the southern disturbance cutting off basically kills it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Not going to happen with the above upper level setup. Looks nice in Denver tonight. I agree with you on this one. Everthing in the upper level setup is probably 200-300 miles east of where we would want it. When the northern stream drops in that far east, the only thing it can give us is a quick cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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