Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ECMWF MJO has it going toward phase 8-1-2 from now until February 20. (check main the main page). If so, we could have a window, but, I really don't know anymore. La Nina is killing and combined with other factors is harming the whole East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Not saying hes wrong, but he hugs the Euro and the Euro has not been that great in the long range. Totally agreed. But hasnt the euro been flopping around too this year? He claims its been the most consistent, although dt loves the euro almost as much as metfan loves cvs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The ECMWF Ensembles are doing much better than the OP ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The ECMWF Ensembles are doing much better than the OP ECMWF. but aren't the ensembles looking horrible too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 but aren't the ensembles looking horrible too? yes, sadly, yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well while we are on topic of the EURO and showing warmth after next weekend...the latest GFS trended in that direction as well. The MJO will probably not get to octane 1 or 2...I can see it going into 8 and quickly heading back into the COD. Winter is slowly dwindling and we have had nothing to show for it. I would like to see better trends for this storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Surprised no one commented about the fact that the GFS gives us 1-3 inches of snow on Sunday as it drives down a piece of energy from the polar vortex. Imagine if this could dig further south and capture the low as the Canadian did yesterday or the Euro control run did two days ago. Storm is back on the 12z GFS, but looks like the trough didn't go negative quickly enough. Slides out to sea. At least it's better than 0z/6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Surprised no one commented about the fact that the GFS gives us 1-3 inches of snow on Sunday as it drives down a piece of energy from the polar vortex. Imagine if this could dig further south and capture the low as the Canadian did yesterday or the Euro control run did two days ago. chances of that happening like that is slim to none and slim just left town - thats going to change by next run or 2 - there will be several more different types of solutions the next few days just like the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 To answer 540 line's post, overall patterns are more likely to be correct in the long term than exact conditions. In other words, its more likely the models will get a trough in the east correct, than that they will get a 10-20 inch snowstorm correct. One is general, the other specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GGEM trended much better for this storm http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/407688_317250854993347_100001253051397_991592_2138786348_n.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NOGAPS at 138 hrs https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020612∏=prpτ=138&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well this morning I was pleasantly surprised with some good news, a term that is difficult to come by this winter. The ECMWF MJO forecast now has the wave propagating quite easily through phase 8, then into 1-2. Most model guidance has it moving into 8-1-2 at least at a low amplitude, which would certainly be better than diving into the COD. If this holds true, I'd be very worried about forecasting a blowtorch or even a warmer than normal temp pattern in the East for feb 15-30 time frame. In fact, phases 1,2,3 get progressively better in terms of cold potential for the United States at this time of year. The threat this weekend still looks like it has poor synoptics to me. The PV is too far east and argues for the offshore solution. Maybe we can pull off a weak low or norlum like the 12z gfs but chances of that happening are pretty slim. Personally I'm now more interested in after that period, the second half of feb could very well offer some legitimate snow chances assuming the MJO continues to propagate through the octants noted. This would also promote height rises in the north atlantic. Especially if we can get the PV to retrograde SW towards Hudsons bay (and SW of there) we'd see some backing of the upper flow on the east coast and higher probabilities of a snow event. Hate to say this, but today's probably the most optimistic I've been for the pattern beyond feb 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Tom, maybe we'll get something on President's Day Weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 NOGAPS at 138 hrs https://www.fnmoc.na...au=138&set=Core More reason to not write this storm off as many twists we've seen even within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Tom, maybe we'll get something on President's Day Weekend... Chris, I'm starting to think we won't see an early spring (torch) this year, ie late feb/early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GGEM trended much better for this storm http://a5.sphotos.ak...138786348_n.jpg Yep, looks way better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 More reason to not write this storm off as many twists we've seen even within 5 days. NOGAPS has consistently showed a weak frontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 More reason to not write this storm off as many twists we've seen even within 5 days. not to write something off because the NOGAPS still shows a closer to the coast solution ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Chris, I'm starting to think we won't see an early spring (torch) this year, ie late feb/early march. It depends on how the synoptics go; I mean, yes the MJO is a huge help; which is why I think we can get a snow chance here and there. But, the blocking, etc need to be shown on the map for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 not to write something off because the NOGAPS still shows a closer to the coast solution ???? No - didn't mean it that way. It's just that the models don't seem to be set in stone at all for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 It depends on how the synoptics go; I mean, yes the MJO is a huge help; which is why I think we can get a snow chance here and there. But, the blocking, etc need to be shown on the map for us... If we see the MJO progress as progged, I would be much more confident about blocking getting going. The two have a tendency to coincide (MJO changes mid latitude circulation patterns which will influence ridge/trough orientation if it goes to 8-1-2). This is likely b/c MJO induced Western US ridges tend to promote height rises in the north atlantic as well, by nature of wavelengths / downstream correlation. Of course this is assuming the MJO forecasts verify, which may not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If we see the MJO progress as progged, I would be much more confident about blocking getting going. The two have a tendency to coincide (MJO changes mid latitude circulation patterns which will influence ridge/trough orientation if it goes to 8-1-2). This is likely b/c MJO induced Western US ridges tend to promote height rises in the north atlantic as well, by nature of wavelengths / downstream correlation. Lets hope the Euro has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 If we see the MJO progress as progged, I would be much more confident about blocking getting going. The two have a tendency to coincide (MJO changes mid latitude circulation patterns which will influence ridge/trough orientation if it goes to 8-1-2). This is likely b/c MJO induced Western US ridges tend to promote height rises in the north atlantic as well, by nature of wavelengths / downstream correlation. Of course this is assuming the MJO forecasts verify, which may not happen. I'm no MJO expert. But it seems to me that phase 8 supports a western ridge, but not necessarily phase 1 and definitely not phase 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Lets hope the Euro has a clue. Well it's not just the Euro - GFS has it too, as well as other guidance. So if its wrong, they all go down in flames (which I don't think will happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm no MJO expert. But it seems to me that phase 8 supports a western ridge, but not necessarily phase 1 and definitely not phase 2. Yeah the western ridge tends to weaken in 1-2-3 with more of a nationwide cool signal, possibly hinting at a neg PNA and neg NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 12z GGEM for this weekend. It goes OTS but it's more robust than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Somewhat OT, but we've got interesting happenings w/ the Sun. Solar values (SSN and flux) have been tanking this month. Cycle 24 has been an enigma to many scientists; we're supposed to be increasing/peaking this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro out to 162 has no storm....drop pv over us on Sunday....coldest air of the season if one is to believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Some light snow for wed night and Sunday on euro....but its not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro drops coldest air of the season into the NE end of this weknd: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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