February 10-12 Potential

[NEG NAO]

I don't think we have to worry about this storm being an inland or coastal plain runner - it will stay over water - but need the phase so it gets closer and a little blocking wouldn't hurt

[Chris L]

This is likely the only shot of this February, because, as some said, the ridge breaks down; and that is pretty ugly. Let's get this one! Hopefully.

[Edge Weather]

Look how close we are on the NOGAPS at 150 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020518∏=prpτ=150&set=Core

[CooL]

This is likely the only shot of this February, because, as some said, the ridge breaks down; and that is pretty ugly. Let's get this one! Hopefully.

Well the gfs still has a snowy pattern after the 11th but this is definitely the best looking threat. GFS is starting to keen in on a weaker first wave and a more dominant second northern stream s/w that phases with the southern stream.

[Junbug]

Look how close we are on the NOGAPS at 150 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=150&set=Core

NOGAPS = DGEX 2 of the worst models.

Anyways, The PV is too close to allow anything to ride up the coast here so far. Still ways away.

[NYCSuburbs]

Look how close we are on the NOGAPS at 150 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=150&set=Core

Although I almost always never pay any attention to the NOGAPS, this run is to the east of the last run and less organized than the 6z run... trends aren't too encouraging for this.

[famartin]

Although I almost always never pay any attention to the NOGAPS, this run is to the east of the last run and less organized than the 6z run... trends aren't too encouraging for this.

Its hard to say that anything is a "trend" this far out. More likely, things will be flipping back and forth, here there and everywhere.

[Edge Weather]

We don't all need to beat up on the NOGAPS we all know it is a putrid model, but, that being said, it has been consistent on bringing this low up the coast, and this model run is the most organized one of the bunch, at 150 hrs. it looks more organized than all the prior runs. The GFS also brings this up the coast and the GFS is currently running better than even the Euro in the longer range. So who knows, but to say the NOGAPS looks worse is not totally correct. It is true that prior runs brought us some light precipitation, but the lows themselves did not look that organized, especially on its prior run.

Although I almost always never pay any attention to the NOGAPS, this run is to the east of the last run and less organized than the 6z run... trends aren't too encouraging for this.

[Junbug]

We don't all need to beat up on the NOGAPS we all know it is a putrid model, but, that being said, it has been consistent on bringing this low up the coast, and this model run is the most organized one of the bunch, at 150 hrs. it looks more organized than all the prior runs. The GFS also brings this up the coast and the GFS is currently running better than even the Euro in the longer range. So who knows, but to say the NOGAPS looks worse is not totally correct. It is true that prior runs brought us some light precipitation, but the lows themselves did not look that organized, especially on its prior run.

I'm pretty sure today's updates is the first time the NOGAPS has something off the coast. Anyways we are pretty darn far away and anything is likely to happen. Btw the 0z/12z Euro have nothing at all o.O

[Isotherm]

I will say this - of the pitiful "potentials" we've had so far this season, next weekend is without a doubt the most conducive set-up we've seen, but that doesn't mean its all that conducive (compared to the past 2 months it is). MJO wave will make it into phase 8 which is better than its done all winter, so there's the main plus. However, other key signals one would need for a significant east coast snowstorm simply aren't on guidance right now. With that being said, I can see an event producing snow totals similar to that of January's storm (a light to moderate), but I don't see anything in this pattern that would bomb the storm at our latitude, like we often saw the past couple winters.. At this point in the winter I think all of us would be happy with a 1-3/2-4 type deal, so hopefully we can pull that off.

[Edge Weather]

Keep in mind that the GFS currently has better verification scores in this range than the Euro. The Euro has not locked onto a solution yet in this time frame and has been changing on every single run, quite dramatically. The GFS has pretty much locked onto a general idea and has been somewhat consistent.

I'm pretty sure today's updates is the first time the NOGAPS has something off the coast. Anyways we are pretty darn far away and anything is likely to happen. Btw the 0z/12z Euro have nothing at all o.O

[Edge Weather]

The individual memebers only show one nice hit and I am not even sure it is from the same wave. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f150.html

[Isotherm]

Tom, well said...

Sadly, I thought THIS time frame would have a chance; but its declining. However, we have more model runs to go.

Yeah Chris, I'm holding out hope for maybe a light event, but its unfortunate we can't buy a -NAO to save our lives this winter. If we had some sort of block for next weekend we'd have a far better chance for something big.

[mattinpa]

The individual memebers only show one nice hit and I am not even sure it is from the same wave. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f150.html

Luckily, the ensembles have been even worse this winter, and they still show some signal.

[famartin]

Keep in mind that the GFS currently has better verification scores in this range than the Euro. The Euro has not locked onto a solution yet in this time frame and has been changing on every single run, quite dramatically. The GFS has pretty much locked onto a general idea and has been somewhat consistent.

Actually we're in day 6 range, not day 7 or 8. So technically, the EC beats the GFS at *this* range.

[BxEngine]

Yup, no need to come back when your team gets blown out....

BUST

[Frank]

This map is from hour 90 of 0z GFS:

http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/420615_316914448360321_100001253051397_990892_1563909884_n.jpg

I highlighted the ridge in the West. I would like to see it slide a little more East into the Boise, ID area to buckle the trough a little more. Also, the PV is noticeably further South this run, which in turn, sheared the Northern energy and we have a large plume of moisture left in the GOM sliding out to sea. We need a better ridge and a phase somewhere in the green circle (on my map) for a storm to occur. We also need the PV to maintain its position in Central/Northern Hudson Bay.

[famartin]

Old GFS had a much more potent southern stream which rode over the PNA ridge, sank south and was able to turn negatively tilted and get a storm going. New GFS is much weaker so it stays positively tilted.

[MJO812]

0z GGEM has a 1010 low east of the benchmark

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[atownwxwatcher]

0z GGEM has a 1010 low east of the benchmark

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg

Judging from this image at 120..It appears like a cold front moving thru with a weak wave the would develop along that cold front..

I would think if that is the case you would want the cold front to stall along the coast in order for anything exciting to happen

[NEG NAO]

6Z GFS still a miss - 0Z Euro was a miss OTS also

HPC VERY lOW CONFIDENCE

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

244 AM EST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 10 2012 - 12Z MON FEB 13 2012

THE PREVAILING REX-BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES IS

PROJECTED TO ERODE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE

PERIOD...AND TRANSITION MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL HEIGHTS AND

TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. UNFORTUNATELY...ANTICIPATING

THE PRECISE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN CHANGE IS OFTEN VERY

DIFFICULT...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE UNUSUALLY HIGH SOLUTION

SPREAD THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC

AS EARLY AS DAY 3/THU. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC

DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IS VERY LOW...WITH A GENERAL PREFERENCE

TOWARD THE NAEFS BCMEAN FOR ALL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE

UNCERTAINTY OVER THE OCEANS...THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT HIGH SPREAD

WITH THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO

SEPARATE INTO TWO OR MORE PIECES AS IT WEAKENS...AND ALSO WITH THE

UPPER LOW CROSSING MEXICO. WILL ATTEMPT TO MANUALLY INSERT GREATER

DETAILS IN THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS FOR DAYS 3/7 BASED ON

SOME DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBER CLUSTERING. HOWEVER...AGAIN

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

JAMES

[MJO812]

0z Euro wasn't that far away from a major storm on the coast. It just missed the phase.

[NEG NAO]

0z Euro wasn't that far away from a major storm on the coast. It just missed the phase.

and what do you think has to happen for the storm to phase?

[540line]

It's something I've always wondered about here...I've been here and at EUSWX for 7+ years, and I've always wondered how this works:

We have modeling (GFS/NAM/ECWMF/UKMET, etc) that has decent trouble in predicting storms and patterns 7-14 days out. Run-to-run inconsistencies, truncation, etc. all cause forecasters fits in trying to get a decent forecast put together. It's why it's not called modelology--it's called meteorology.

So that said--models inconsistent, next to impossible to get an accurate 7-day forecast from current modeling data.

Yet we look at "longer range" modeling like it's gospel. "OMG did you see the Euro monthlies?" "The ridge is breaking down after this chance so this is pretty much our only chance of a decent snow in February." I'm not picking on any members here.

I just don't understand how/why the longer range forecasts can be trusted more than the shorter-range modeling that can be no better than a coinflip sometimes.

[540line]

Well said.

[Stormlover74]

Because in the case of the next 5-7 days we are looking for a more specific solution. For example which models have a storm and where will the track be, how strong, what type of precip. When looking 7 to 10 days out and beyond its more of a hint at what the pattern might be, not a specific solution. Nobody is going to look at a specific storm 12 days out and expect the models to agree on a solution. However if more than one model hints at a major pattern change and the reasons to back it up it has to at least be considered. This winter however there have been many times where even 7 days out the models have completely flip flopped on a pattern change.

[mattinpa]

Storm is back on the 12z GFS, but looks like the trough didn't go negative quickly enough. Slides out to sea. At least it's better than 0z/6z GFS.

[jrodd321]

Its amazing were gonna let another beautiful trough just go to waste once again, as the storm gets crushed out to sea. DT just posted that regardless of what happens with this storm, that the pattern completely breaks down afterwards and it will be mild for the rest of Feb.

[Chris L]

Its amazing were gonna let another beautiful trough just go to waste once again, as the storm gets crushed out to sea. DT just posted that regardless of what happens with this storm, that the pattern completely breaks down afterwards and it will be mild for the rest of Feb.

yes, that is correct John. Which is why we need to see some trends go our favor.

I HOPE.

[SBUWX23]

Not saying hes wrong, but he hugs the Euro and the Euro has not been that great in the long range.

Its amazing were gonna let another beautiful trough just go to waste once again, as the storm gets crushed out to sea. DT just posted that regardless of what happens with this storm, that the pattern completely breaks down afterwards and it will be mild for the rest of Feb.