NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It seems that with each model run, your posts are verbatim as if what is depicted beyond 3 or 4 days is what will occur. You have been following weather for longer than this to be so foolish. Once again - I am not predicting what will happen - just stating what most models are showing right now - thats what most of us are doing here - no one here has the skill level ( including the mets ) to make an accurtate prediction more then a few days in advance........thats why HPC gives confidence ratings and the last couple of weeks they have stated they have low confidence in their forecasts past a few days...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 What Will said was very encouraging. We just need a phase for this storm to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I am still waiting for the mega PNA ridge a met on here guaranteed would happen when I argued with him his forcast was very bold being 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 What Will said was very encouraging. We just need a phase for this storm to happen. Yeah, a phase, a Greenland block, a height rise over NW Canada, a 50-50 low, and s sfc high in Canada. Other than that it looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I am still waiting for the mega PNA ridge a met on here guaranteed would happen when I argued with him his forcast was very bold being 10 days out. Its actually happening already....here's a 48 hour forecast which all guidance agrees on A big PNA ridge doesn't guarantee a snowstorm, but its certainly soemthing that is more favorable for them than a negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yeah, a phase, a Greenland block, a height rise over NW Canada, a 50-50 low, and s sfc high in Canada. Other than that it looks great. Tom, well said... Sadly, I thought THIS time frame would have a chance; but its declining. However, we have more model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Its actually happening already....here's a 48 hour forecast which all guidance agrees on A big PNA ridge doesn't guarantee a snowstorm, but its certainly soemthing that is more favorable for them than a negative PNA. and despite all that amplitude and meridional flow, the flow is pretty zonal in the northeast. At least a factor of that has to do with the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 and despite all that amplitude and meridional flow, the flow is pretty zonal in the northeast. At least a factor of that has to do with the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 and despite all that amplitude and meridional flow, the flow is pretty zonal in the northeast. So you admit that the monster PNA ridge is in fact happening...that is a good start for stopping the pretty bad trolling you've ramped up recently. Now if you ramp ahead several days...the flow buckles more...and that is why we are watching the threat to begin with. The amount of elongation of the PV and any southern stream is what can ignite a storm...it isn't favored to happen, but its worth watching anyway You can say "cold and dry...won't happen" or you can discuss some actual meteorology behind the reasoning if you are ever to be taken seriously. Saying "won't happen" is really going out on a limb...especially for a 6 day threat. I might put myself on the line at some point too and say NYC will hit 95F this summer, but will probably wait on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 So you admit that the monster PNA ridge is in fact happening...that is a good start for stopping the pretty bad trolling you've ramped up recently. Now if you ramp ahead several days...the flow buckles more...and that is why we are watching the threat to begin with. The amount of elongation of the PV and any southern stream is what can ignite a storm...it isn't favored to happen, but its worth watching anyway You can say "cold and dry...won't happen" or you can discuss some actual meteorology behind the reasoning if you are ever to be taken seriously. Saying "won't happen" is really going out on a limb...especially for a 6 day threat. I might put myself on the line at some point too and say NYC will hit 95F this summer, but will probably wait on that one. I will never sports troll you again if you find a way for this summer to not go above 90. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I might put myself on the line at some point too and say NYC will hit 95F this summer, bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 For all the wishcasters out there including a few high profile mets around the internet EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 218 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 12Z WED FEB 08 2012 - 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FINAL... MADE NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TREND IN THE 12Z/05 CYCLE WAS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...WHICH CAME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE MANUAL BLEND IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LIMITING THE AMPLIFICATION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 144h UKMET is vastly different than the new ECMWF with handling the s/w. The ensembles will, as always, be interesting. It is going to be a long week of model mayhem. Long week of model mayhem? The pattern looks like transient cold, dry, and boring. The PV is modeled to be in an awful position for east coast snow. That's great. As for the rest of us in science, it is going to be a long week of model mayhem. Why don't you ask the weatherman how the Mid Atlantic forecasts from Friday went. HM with a smack down of Know It All in the NE forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 For the record, I have not once said that this threat is dead. (if I thought it was dead I wouldn't bother posting in this thread) I've only pointed out what isn't being depicted as favorable. And I'm in exactly the same camp. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 and despite all that amplitude and meridional flow, the flow is pretty zonal in the northeast. At least a factor of that has to do with the NAO. Read more, post less. Two mets have smacked you down this afternoon. Take a break. Come back in two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Lets all chill and watch the Superbowl, then come back later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Lets all chill and watch the Superbowl, then come back later Me coming back depends on who wins and/or the 0z Euro showing an HECS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Me coming back depends on who wins and/or the 0z Euro showing an HECS. lol Yup, no need to come back when your team gets blown out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 bookmarked. Kettle meet pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Through hour 144 of the 18z GFS, the southern piece of energy is more defined than it was in 12z, and the northern stream is digging WAY more than it was in 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 18z GFS is one step closer. Brushes us with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't understand how noone can get excited looping the gfs. It literally just misses coming up the coast with plenty of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 18z GFS improved from the 12z GFS. It has light precipitation reaching the area from this system, and the storm is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 There is definitely potential. The slight chance of snow has been in my forecast for next weekend for a week already. I don't understand how noone can get excited looping the gfs. It literally just misses coming up the coast with plenty of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looking at hr 162 on the GFS, you can see the northern branch is oriented due north to south near the upper mid west compared to the 12z's nw to se look. Good improvement there. (h5 maps) Wish I could post images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't understand how noone can get excited looping the gfs. It literally just misses coming up the coast with plenty of cold air in place. Most sensible people know it is too soon to jump on the bus or too soon to drive the bus off the cliff. Having the GFS showing a pretty healthy storm off the coast 6 days out is a plus. If this was showing a huge hit right now, the very same people brushing the threat aside would be saying congrats Chicago. I know some discard it since the Euro shows nothing but we are not in the Euro's wheelhouse right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Strictly speaking verbatim, it does like like a decent* air mass in place before the storm hits. Guess you could call this a solid baby step of a run. (till 0z GFS changes the run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The ensemble mean and the individual ensembles should be particularly interesting. Omg 18z GFS is soooooooo close to a phase. Hours 150-156 made no sense with the low making that big of a jump northeast. But whatever, the storm is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The ensemble mean and the individual ensembles should be particularly interesting. Yea most definitely. Man the ridge definitely looks to break down after next weekend though. Hopefully we get something to out us out of our misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Strictly speaking verbatim, it does like like a decent* air mass in place before the storm hits. Guess you could call this a solid baby step of a run. (till 0z GFS changes the run) agreed, with the PV over SE canada like that we will have a good cold air supply, especially if the high can slide over faster..Definitely has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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