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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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tl;dr

Figured since that's what you PM'd me, it was OK to respond to this in kind :P

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...

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I don't believe this has to do with blocking in this example but of capture by an upper level low. Very different.

There is no blocking - there hasn't been any blocking all winter and there is no blocking forecasted - totally different situation then 2010 - we have not had one storm come up the coast to phase and produce a snowstorm this winter and the pattern did not change enough to produce one now...

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Its not reasonable if the upper level low just keeps heading east, as it appears likely to do.

Sorry but you shouldn't really say this until it gets closer. How many times have we seen storms this far out in the same position which trend closer. Not saying that it will def trend closer but no one should write this storm off.

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There is no blocking - there hasn't been any blocking all winter and there is no blocking forecasted - totally different situation then 2010 - we have not had one storm come up the coast to phase and produce a snowstorm this winter and the pattern did not change enough to produce one now...

Correct but this time we have a PV situated over Eastern Canada, which will force the two short waves to phase somewhere in the Southeast. One will be coming out of the Baja region and the other short wave is diving in from the Midwest. If the two phase, they will come up the coast. GFS phased them too late.

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Sorry but you shouldn't really say this until it gets closer. How many times have we seen storms this far out in the same position which trend closer. Not saying that it will def trend closer but no one should write this storm off.

When I wrote "as it appears likely to do" in that comment, I was referring to the extrapolation from 180 hours on the GGEM. Though, I tend to think that whatever develops is still unlikely to come up the coast.

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The GFS is pretty close to phasing at hr 144.

I'm actually kind of impressed by this run.

Man if the pieces aligned just a bit better....this would be a beast.

Looks like we'll miss this run to the east, but that trend of more defined energy to the south looks better...I'd actually love to see that become dominant and have the PV lift northeast at the same time...we did see some impressive ensemble members at 06z show what would happen if the southern energy got more involved

5vfhe.jpg

Check out the trough orientation at hr 120. Notice how we have the polar vortex moving into Hudson Bay with a lobe extending into the Great Lakes. Also notice the strung out area of vorticity going around the base of the trough. Now notice the shortwave trough across Colorado and also the ULL diving through Mexico.

At hr 144, now look at the orientation of the trough. Notice how both troughs...the piece by the Great Lakes and the CO trough, and even the weakening ULL in Mexico all are sort of lined up or pretty close to it. Usually, you want to see the s/w's diving on the back side of the trough and they should be in alignment. In this case, the s/w energy across the southwest is a little west and out of placement with the energy diving into MN, but the alignment is much closer and not far from something more significant.

Will and Scott are two of the best mets on this board. Neither one of them are PREDICTING this storm to happen but i will take their analysis over 95% of others on this board. Funny how neither one mentions blocking, 2010 or something 6 days out is a definite.

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Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind:

1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question.

2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS.

3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable.

4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong.

5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains.

6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns.

*The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality.

Yeah Ray does enjoy questioning snow totals. I guess you can call him the dream-killer weenie-crusher of winter weather. :whistle:

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I don't think any model's verification of MJO prediction is worth the time that this forum has put into it. The basic 200mb structure has and continues to suggest that the eastern wave is legitimate and will alter the N PAC.

I don't really care if it nose dives in phase 8-1 to the COD. It doesn't mean anything because the damage has been done at that point. It isn't until the forcing reemerges in phases 4-5-6 again when we go back to winter 11-12 "default"...

And this to all those humping the MJO and how it going into the COD means no storm or cold in the east.

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Will and Scott are two of the best mets on this board. Neither one of them are PREDICTING this storm to happen but i will take their analysis over 95% of others on this board. Funny how neither one mentions blocking, 2010 or something 6 days out is a definite.

we really need more great analysis in here instead of the "not gonna happen" stuff. this threat has been outlined by many for days going all the way back to early last week. to give up with all the potential at this stage doesn't make sense to me at all right now.

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With HP off the coast, you don't really think that it would hold in place do you? Not to mention, the GFS is rapidly progressive with each system over this period. There is no blocking. How can you have it both ways?

WX/PT

Agree, there's not much in the synoptics that supports a snow event as I noted before. Unfortunately the PNA ridge is being torn down by next weekend, along w/ the lack of blocking, or 50/50 to hold the cold,

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we really need more great analysis in here instead of the "not gonna happen" stuff. this threat has been outlined by many for days going all the way back to early last week. to give up with all the potential at this stage doesn't make sense to me at all right now.

Agreed. As i said, neither Will or Scott have said this storm is happening. However they give reasoning as to what needs to change for us to have a chance. They just don't say, "oh it's to far east, it ain't coming up the coast" They explain what we need to see happen and don't say it can't 6 days out.

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Ensemble members 4 and 5 give us hope and are somewhat similar results to what the Canadian run did today and Euro control run did yesterday, although further north than the Candian run. http://www.meteo.psu...E_12z/f174.html

The key point here though is that nearly all of them have some sort of storm, whether it's weak or elongated and OTS, or if it is a MECS giving places NW of I-95 a significant snow event.

That indicates strong agreement between the ENS for some sort of storm, which is impressive being that it is 174 hours out.

The question is, where will the storm go?

That is a question that will probably not be resolved until 3-4 days before, at the very earliest.

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Will just said in the SNE thread that this run shows a cold front.

and the cold front passes with little precip and cold high pressure with normal to slightly below normal temps is in control for many days with no organized areas of precip in sight - a long stretch of dry weather ahead ........

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From Will in the NE board, referring to the Euro:

"It sould be noted though that the southern extention of the pv lobe digs about 500 miles further south than the 00z run so that would certainly make for an interesting setup if it decides it wants to eject some of the southern stream eastward in future runs. "

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and the cold front passes with little precip and cold high pressure with normal to slightly below normal temps is in control for many days with no organized areas of precip in sight - a long stretch of dry weather ahead ........

It seems that with each model run, your posts are verbatim as if what is depicted beyond 3 or 4 days is what will occur. You have been following weather for longer than this to be so foolish.

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