Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Canadian looks more than a little interesting with this storm. Look at 180 hrs. This is nearly what the Euro control run did with it yesterday morning, it caputures it before going out to sea, then bombs it out. 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=132&fixhh=1 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 precip charts below 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Canadian looks more than a little interesting with this storm. Look at 180 hrs. This is nearly what the Euro control run did with it yesterday morning, it caputures it before going out to sea, then bombs it out. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=180&comp=1&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Does that look warm, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Time to lock this thread - the threat has passed http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The usually progressive NOGAPS 144 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=144&set=Core 150 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=150&set=Core 156 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=156&set=Core 162 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=162&set=Core Can't see it. Sites are blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Canadian looks more than a little interesting with this storm. Look at 180 hrs. This is nearly what the Euro control run did with it yesterday morning, it caputures it before going out to sea, then bombs it out. 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=132&fixhh=1 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 precip charts below 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Can't see it. Sites are blocked. A weak system coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 A weak system coming up the coast. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like it would go straight out to sea after 180. Canadian looks more than a little interesting with this storm. Look at 180 hrs. This is nearly what the Euro control run did with it yesterday morning, it caputures it before going out to sea, then bombs it out. 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=132&fixhh=1 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 precip charts below 156 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 168 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 180 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Looks like it would go straight out to sea after 180. To be fair, though, it's a good bit north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not so interesting. First of all, if it were surprisingly to come up the coast, there's no cold air locked in place to the north. The most likely track of it is slowly ne-ward just far enough offshore to miss us, almost but not quite like most of the other guidance indicates. Not to mention, the GGEM has been wrong time after time with these somewhat closer to the coast track scenarios this season. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Look how it pulled that in to the coast. The Euro control run did this yesterday, but did it further north, pulling it in to the NJ coast, then bombing it out. To be fair, though, it's a good bit north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not so interesting. First of all, if it were surprisingly to come up the coast, there's no cold air locked in place to the north. The most likely track of it is slowly ne-ward just far enough offshore to miss us, almost but not quite like most of the other guidance indicates. Not to mention, the GGEM has been wrong time after time with these somewhat closer to the coast track scenarios this season. WX/PT GFS and other models show a decent amount of cold air to the north. If it phases too soon, this will go inland but I doubt it with the PV that far south. If it bombs out, we don't have to worry about the cold air to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Look how it pulled that in to the coast. The Euro control run did this yesterday, but did it further north, pulling it in to the NJ coast, then bombing it out. If it bombs, that could certainly make up for a marginal cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 With HP off the coast, you don't really think that it would hold in place do you? Not to mention, the GFS is rapidly progressive with each system over this period. There is no blocking. How can you have it both ways? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This threat, is sadly, getting a bit less as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This threat, is sadly, getting a bit less as we go forward. Uh? The last run didn't show a whole lot. This run shows a big storm just offshore. It wouldn't take a lot for it to trend a little west to hit us. The storm just missed the phase on this run. We go through this same thing with every big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We should just stop tracking every Day 8 threat and if something happens, then let it happen. I'm not expecting much from this winter anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This threat, is sadly, getting a bit less as we go forward. It's in limbo right now with the GFS looking better and the Canadian. If the Euro shows it, things will be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This threat, is sadly, getting a bit less as we go forward. This is sadly the truth. Not only that, the likelihood of high lattitude blocking over the mid-long range has also decreased. We need to go in reverse quickly to maps of 24-36 hours ago over the next day or two if we are to salvage the dim glimmer of hope that was there! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Uh? The last run didn't show a whole lot. This run shows a big storm just offshore. It wouldn't take a lot for it to trend a little west to hit us. The storm just missed the phase on this run. We go through this same thing with every big storm. HPC and many others are writing this off already its quite obvious why....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is sadly the truth. Not only that, the likelihood of high lattitude blocking over the mid-long range has also decreased. We need to go in reverse quickly to maps of 24-36 hours ago over the next day or two if we are to salvage the dim glimmer of hope that was there! WX/PT It's ridiculous to write this off now. And we can get snow without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 HPC and many others are writing this off already its quite obvious why....... It's only Sunday. No reason to write this off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind: 1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question. 2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS. 3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable. 4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong. 5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains. 6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns. *The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality. tl;dr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The upper level low captured the surface low and pulled it hundreds and hundreds of miles west, and may still be pulling it further north and west at 180 hrs. We simply don't know. And what if this happens further north, then we would be in the game. Of course, it is more likely that it won't happen at all, but who knows? With HP off the coast, you don't really think that it would hold in place do you? Not to mention, the GFS is rapidly progressive with each system over this period. There is no blocking. How can you have it both ways? WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I also watched many people write off the December 26, 2010 storm and the October storm. This storm is a week away. No one knows for sure what will happen. I agree though that it is unlikely. HPC and many others are writing this off already its quite obvious why....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The upper level low captured the surface low and pulled if hundreds and hundreds of miles west, and may still be pulling it further north and west at 180 hrs. We simply don't know. And what if this happens further north, then we would be in the game. Of course, it is more likely that it won't happen at all, but who knows? That seems the reasonable view to me. It's far from a sure thing, but it's worthy of promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 That seems the reasonable view to me. It's far from a sure thing, but it's worthy of promise. Its not reasonable if the upper level low just keeps heading east, as it appears likely to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I will say that this is the most potential so far this winter,especially since the MJO is forecasted to go into 8. Some forecasts have it going through 8 into 1 and some have it going into the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I also watched many people write off the December 26, 2010 storm and the October storm. This storm is a week away. No one knows for sure what will happen. I agree though that it is unlikely. There is no blocking - there hasn't been any blocking all winter and there is no blocking forecasted - totally different situation then 2010 - we have not had one storm come up the coast to phase and produce a snowstorm this winter and the pattern did not change enough to produce one now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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