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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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You can get wet snow at those temps. It also cools later in the storm.

35-40 can give you wet non accumulating snow, maybe. Its 37-39 in NYC and PHL at 156 when the heavy precip is moving in. Its still ~35 at PHL and NYC at 162, when the heavy precip is already moving out. Less than a tenth of an inch falls after that point.

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Why are we analyzing a 162 hour storm lol.

Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off.

Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end.

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Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off.

Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end.

Yes on this run but it can easily change for the best or for the worse.

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Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off.

Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end.

I don't think we need that. We said that if it's snow, it won't accumulate much verbatim. To far ahead for that argument.

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The 0z CMC came significantly west this run... my biggest concern is that this could come more west and we once again end up with rain, but considering the time range and the awful model performance this winter, changes will continue to happen. While a big snowstorm is unlikely IMO, this set up could perhaps produce a decent sized snowstorm in the better case scenario.

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Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off.

Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too?

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Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too?

Not at all. If you don't want to hear reality then by all means, set your settings to "ignore" me (I think that's possible).

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Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too?

He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter. If you want to live in wishcast regarding the model verbatim, feel free to ignore Ray (who's a pretty damn good met).

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00z GFS is the same garbage we've seen all winter -- very weak lows off the East coast, which won't do much for accumulating snow. The synoptics are not conducive IMO for a bundling of energy and a strong sfc low; the strung out/disorganized wave of low pressure will probably be the best we'll muster in this pattern. The PNA ridge is already in the process of being beaten down by short waves pounding into the BC/AK coasts next weekend, the NAO is positive, there's no 50/50 low, and the PV is not in a great position. I could see how we'd squeeze out maybe a 1-3 minor type deal, but nothing more than that.

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More reality.....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

827 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU FEB 09 2012 - 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF

TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND

PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS

BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE

PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE

EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE

OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD

SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW

INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO

INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW

IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO

SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION.

CISCO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter.

In fairness, I haven't really had any thoughts about the winter as a whole, though the October snowstorm was a bad omen to me as history has shown several occurances of poor winters after extremely early snow. Most of my thoughts are about individual events. I'm no long-ranger.

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He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter. If you want to live in wishcast regarding the model verbatim, feel free to ignore Ray (who's a pretty damn good met).

Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind:

1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question.

2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS.

3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable.

4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong.

5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains.

6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns.

*The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality.

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that is where we want the Gfs right now-a miss S and E. Euro will be interesting today

The 500 mb pattern featuring positively tilted troughs does not appear to favor a trend north. A significant change will need to occur in that respect for this to come further north.

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Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind:

1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question.

2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS.

3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable.

4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong.

5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains.

6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns.

*The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality.

tl;dr

Figured since that's what you PM'd me, it was OK to respond to this in kind :P

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Soooo you are saying he's right then...

Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind:

1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question.

2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS.

3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable.

4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong.

5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains.

6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns.

*The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality.

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12z GFS is a miss but it trended in the right direction. It barely missed a phase.

Cant really say it trended in the right direction. We aaid that for 00z then 06z doesnt even have a storm. Its bouncing all over the place, so when we see more than one run of the gfs show a storm right off the se coast then we can say its "trending". But for now no model has a clue, euro didnt even have the storm at 00z.
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Cant really say it trended in the right direction. We aaid that for 00z then 06z doesnt even have a storm. Its bouncing all over the place, so when we see more than one run of the gfs show a storm right off the se coast then we can say its "trending". But for now no model has a clue, euro didnt even have the storm at 00z.

Right now all the models are struggling, more then usual , after 3 or 4 days. Just as HM said they would on the main forum a couple of weeks ago. None of them have shown ANY consistency run to run. I believe over the next couple of days we are going to see all kinds of solutions show up on the global models. From hits, near misses and no storm at all. Buckle up because the weenies as well as the Debbie Downers are going to go crazy.

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