MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 During the precip? Maybe if you want rain. Why are we analyzing a 162 hour storm lol. Anyway, surface temps are warm and the 850's are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 You can get wet snow at those temps. It also cools later in the storm. 35-40 can give you wet non accumulating snow, maybe. Its 37-39 in NYC and PHL at 156 when the heavy precip is moving in. Its still ~35 at PHL and NYC at 162, when the heavy precip is already moving out. Less than a tenth of an inch falls after that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Why are we analyzing a 162 hour storm lol. Anyway, surface temps are warm and the 850's are marginal. Yes, I'd like to see it colder for accumulating snow, but a lot of details to be worked out. Who knows if it even keeps the storm in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Why are we analyzing a 162 hour storm lol. Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off. Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off. Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end. Yes on this run but it can easily change for the best or for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yes, I'd like to see it colder, but a lot of details to be worked out. Who knows if it even keeps the storm in future runs. Yeah, people are taking a 156-162 hour GFS run way too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off. Could it trend colder? Maybe. But its not there yet. Verbatim the GFS is a miserable, cold rain storm for I-95. Some snow in NW Jersey probably. Toward the end. I don't think we need that. We said that if it's snow, it won't accumulate much verbatim. To far ahead for that argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 0z CMC came significantly west this run... my biggest concern is that this could come more west and we once again end up with rain, but considering the time range and the awful model performance this winter, changes will continue to happen. While a big snowstorm is unlikely IMO, this set up could perhaps produce a decent sized snowstorm in the better case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Unless we get blocking - its mainly rain on the coast - possiible changing to snow towards the end ................other problem is the 0z GFS does not completely phase the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Cuz I gotta get you guys to take the snow goggles off. Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yes on this run but it can easily change for the best or for the worse. 6z GFS changed for the worse - at least you don't have to worry about too far west on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 6z GFS changed for the worse - at least you don't have to worry about too far west on this run And that's why you don't take any model's solution seriously beyond 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 We ALL should know that this year in particular all models outside 60 hours cannot be trusted. Absolutely no consistency for any type of calls or busts for this possible storm. The models will lose it, cut inland, go out to sea, HECS etc. Maybe by wednesday we can take this threat more seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too? Not at all. If you don't want to hear reality then by all means, set your settings to "ignore" me (I think that's possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Jeez, I've been reading your doubts about winter weather at the coast for seven years...first at Eastern, now here...from it's too warm, to this is wrong, to, after the storm, they "overmeasured", or, if someone contends an airport undermeasured, defending the undermeasurement to the death...did the Philly forum grow weary of it, too? He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter. If you want to live in wishcast regarding the model verbatim, feel free to ignore Ray (who's a pretty damn good met). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Verbatim, this is the GFS ptype from the 0z run at hr 159. hr 156 is about 10 miles west on the rain/snow line. enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 00z GFS is the same garbage we've seen all winter -- very weak lows off the East coast, which won't do much for accumulating snow. The synoptics are not conducive IMO for a bundling of energy and a strong sfc low; the strung out/disorganized wave of low pressure will probably be the best we'll muster in this pattern. The PNA ridge is already in the process of being beaten down by short waves pounding into the BC/AK coasts next weekend, the NAO is positive, there's no 50/50 low, and the PV is not in a great position. I could see how we'd squeeze out maybe a 1-3 minor type deal, but nothing more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 More reality..... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 827 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 VALID 12Z THU FEB 09 2012 - 12Z SUN FEB 12 2012 PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED A PROGRESSIVE BLEND FROM THE 00Z/05 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF TOWARD THE 00Z/05 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE SITS BETWEEN THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH PLACES THE SAME TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH FITS THE PATTERN SEEN FOR MOST OF THIS COLD SEASON. CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY...BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS...SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. CISCO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter. In fairness, I haven't really had any thoughts about the winter as a whole, though the October snowstorm was a bad omen to me as history has shown several occurances of poor winters after extremely early snow. Most of my thoughts are about individual events. I'm no long-ranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS is a miss but it trended in the right direction. It barely missed a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The major storm is back on the GFS, but it doesn't turn up the coast enough this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 So much potential on the 12z GFS. Had a phase occured just a tad bit earlier, it probably would have gone up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 that is where we want the Gfs right now-a miss S and E. Euro will be interesting today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 He's pretty accurate about his thoughts this winter. If you want to live in wishcast regarding the model verbatim, feel free to ignore Ray (who's a pretty damn good met). Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind: 1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question. 2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS. 3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable. 4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong. 5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains. 6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns. *The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 that is where we want the Gfs right now-a miss S and E. Euro will be interesting today The 500 mb pattern featuring positively tilted troughs does not appear to favor a trend north. A significant change will need to occur in that respect for this to come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind: 1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question. 2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS. 3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable. 4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong. 5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains. 6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns. *The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality. tl;dr Figured since that's what you PM'd me, it was OK to respond to this in kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The usually progressive NOGAPS 144 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020512∏=prpτ=144&set=Core 150 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020512∏=prpτ=150&set=Core 156 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020512∏=prpτ=156&set=Core 162 hrs. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012020512∏=prpτ=162&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Soooo you are saying he's right then... Famartin's posts include certain propositons which are important to keep in mind: 1/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is subject to examination and question. 2/ If you reside in what he considers a non-snow town, any snowfall measurement that seem inordinately low is sacrosanct...especially if it was taken by the FAA or NWS. 3/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately high is probably justifiable. 4/ If you reside in what he considers a snow town, any snowfall measurement that appears inordinately low is potentially wrong. 5/ Snow towns can be found throughout New England, save for the extreme south coast. All of NY state is snow town territory, except for NYC and LI. None of NJ is snow town territory, except for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and Passaic counties...and N. Bergen on good days. Most of eastern PA is snow town territory, save for the SE portion (think SE of a line from Harrisburg to Allentown). No one south of the Mason Dixon Line lives in a snow town, except if they are in the mountains. 6/ Weenies are found almost exclusively in non-snow towns. *The 5th propositon does have considerable basis in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 12z GFS is a miss but it trended in the right direction. It barely missed a phase. Cant really say it trended in the right direction. We aaid that for 00z then 06z doesnt even have a storm. Its bouncing all over the place, so when we see more than one run of the gfs show a storm right off the se coast then we can say its "trending". But for now no model has a clue, euro didnt even have the storm at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Cant really say it trended in the right direction. We aaid that for 00z then 06z doesnt even have a storm. Its bouncing all over the place, so when we see more than one run of the gfs show a storm right off the se coast then we can say its "trending". But for now no model has a clue, euro didnt even have the storm at 00z. Right now all the models are struggling, more then usual , after 3 or 4 days. Just as HM said they would on the main forum a couple of weeks ago. None of them have shown ANY consistency run to run. I believe over the next couple of days we are going to see all kinds of solutions show up on the global models. From hits, near misses and no storm at all. Buckle up because the weenies as well as the Debbie Downers are going to go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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