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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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The afternoon and evening is what will do it now for everyone most likely if anything. New SPC WRF to no surprise backed off big time and matches the current radar extremely well with virtually all snow ending for everyone by 15Z other than the Twin Forks.. It does however show signs of something dropping N-S across the region and then into S NJ and DE from 20Z-04Z this evening with the upper level trough as do many other models though they don't show it as well. There is a convectice nature to its radar imagery as well and the GFS soundings are indeed marginally unstable from 21-02Z for some areas. I don't think this is a norlun signature but instead being kicked off by the rotation of the 500mb upper level trough across the area. Again, these scenarios are tricky, the surface low often does not give you problems but instead the upper trough which can be hours behind the surface low.

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I don't know...the 6z NAM gives me hope out here...and as Morgan Freeman noted in Shawshank..."that's a dangerous thing"....

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Correct, where is that gfi guy? His forecast for this storm was awful and his rants about the overnight low in westhampton beach and how bad upton was misforecasting was a joke.

We didn't have long-duration light to moderate anything. We had maybe a few periods where we had legit light snow, the rest at our longitude was flurries/snizzle. It was a big-time danger sign when every model backed down the day of. Only the twin forks had a real period of light snow, and not sure anything stuck even there. Only the eastern Cape had any kind of accumulation. If the snow was heavier like the couple of NAM runs had it, we would have seen accums.

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We didn't have long-duration light to moderate anything. We had maybe a few periods where we had legit light snow, the rest at our longitude was flurries/snizzle. It was a big-time danger sign when every model backed down the day of. Only the twin forks had a real period of light snow, and not sure anything stuck even there. Only the eastern Cape had any kind of accumulation. If the snow was heavier like the couple of NAM runs had it, we would have seen accums.

Southern Jersey has some real snow...was in AC sat night and there was actually heavy snow for 2+ hours, felt like a real winter for a bit, roads covered, etc. On the bus ride back to ny there was 1-2 inches on the ground until about 30 min north of AC...

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OH NorEaster - read banter thread - I said i blew up . Be rest assured I will bookmark your forecasts for later REVIEW .

YES WHEN THE SYSTEM DEEPENED EAST TOOK THE VORTEX WITH IT , SO THE 2- 3 IN CPK

AND 0 IN WESTHAMPTON BLEW UP . happens even to guys like me ha

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