earthlight Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 ..i thought it was dust at first Probably was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The 6z NAM does look a good deal wetter over eastern L.I.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The 6z NAM does look a good deal wetter over eastern L.I.... The 1/2 inch liquid line tips Block Island after 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The afternoon and evening is what will do it now for everyone most likely if anything. New SPC WRF to no surprise backed off big time and matches the current radar extremely well with virtually all snow ending for everyone by 15Z other than the Twin Forks.. It does however show signs of something dropping N-S across the region and then into S NJ and DE from 20Z-04Z this evening with the upper level trough as do many other models though they don't show it as well. There is a convectice nature to its radar imagery as well and the GFS soundings are indeed marginally unstable from 21-02Z for some areas. I don't think this is a norlun signature but instead being kicked off by the rotation of the 500mb upper level trough across the area. Again, these scenarios are tricky, the surface low often does not give you problems but instead the upper trough which can be hours behind the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If I had to forecast for Manhattan, I'd say less than an inch. Wet sidewalks at most would have been your better call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I don't know...the 6z NAM gives me hope out here...and as Morgan Freeman noted in Shawshank..."that's a dangerous thing".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I don't know...the 6z NAM gives me hope out here...and as Morgan Freeman noted in Shawshank..."that's a dangerous thing".... Think we're still too far west based on the 6z NAM...its seems to be matched well with the heavier precip right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 honestly, not sure at the coast with looks like a long duration light to moderate precip, may not be dynamic enough for snow. Correct, where is that gfi guy? His forecast for this storm was awful and his rants about the overnight low in westhampton beach and how bad upton was misforecasting was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Correct, where is that gfi guy? His forecast for this storm was awful and his rants about the overnight low in westhampton beach and how bad upton was misforecasting was a joke. We didn't have long-duration light to moderate anything. We had maybe a few periods where we had legit light snow, the rest at our longitude was flurries/snizzle. It was a big-time danger sign when every model backed down the day of. Only the twin forks had a real period of light snow, and not sure anything stuck even there. Only the eastern Cape had any kind of accumulation. If the snow was heavier like the couple of NAM runs had it, we would have seen accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We didn't have long-duration light to moderate anything. We had maybe a few periods where we had legit light snow, the rest at our longitude was flurries/snizzle. It was a big-time danger sign when every model backed down the day of. Only the twin forks had a real period of light snow, and not sure anything stuck even there. Only the eastern Cape had any kind of accumulation. If the snow was heavier like the couple of NAM runs had it, we would have seen accums. Southern Jersey has some real snow...was in AC sat night and there was actually heavy snow for 2+ hours, felt like a real winter for a bit, roads covered, etc. On the bus ride back to ny there was 1-2 inches on the ground until about 30 min north of AC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 OH NorEaster - read banter thread - I said i blew up . Be rest assured I will bookmark your forecasts for later REVIEW . YES WHEN THE SYSTEM DEEPENED EAST TOOK THE VORTEX WITH IT , SO THE 2- 3 IN CPK AND 0 IN WESTHAMPTON BLEW UP . happens even to guys like me ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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