Allsnow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Middlesex county area in central nj? Or further south? Thanks further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 That's easy to say for those who only looked at the future radar and not at the QPF amounts and P-type... through hour 15 NYC barely gets an inch of snow despite the nice looking storm on the radar. Besides, the HRRR/RR didn't handle the last storm very well, I think one of their runs that evening even initialized with a 25dbz band covering most of NYC. I actually thought the HRRR did pretty well... I'm not particularly crazy about the composite radar.. but it looked as if we would only get a few mangled flakes based on other guidance, but the HRRR at least had forecasted a minor accumulation, which is what we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The NAM has a tendency to cut back on precip the run prior to the start of an event; it would not suprise me if the 0z run is a lower QPF than what actually falls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Meteorologist Jim Rinaldi is going with 2-4 inches. He has been really good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Meteorologist Jim Rinaldi is going with 2-4 inches. He has been really good this winter. Lets hope, but honestly that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It is now raining here in Holbrook long island temp at 43* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I actually thought the HRRR did pretty well... I'm not particularly crazy about the composite radar.. but it looked as if we would only get a few mangled flakes based on other guidance, but the HRRR at least had forecasted a minor accumulation, which is what we got. In the short range, it did well with the QPF amounts (the radar is a different story as it looked better than what the QPF amounts reflected). In the HRRR's longer range though for the same day, I think it showed the QPF too far north as well before trending south as it got closer to the evening hours. It wasn't terrible, but the HRRR isn't the best short range model in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 In the short range, it did well with the QPF amounts (the radar is a different story as it looked better than what the QPF amounts reflected). In the HRRR's longer range though for the same day, I think it showed the QPF too far north as well before trending south as it got closer to the evening hours. It wasn't terrible, but the HRRR isn't the best short range model in many cases. ah, ok.. I really only glanced at it during one particular time frame and didn't follow it throughout the day. I must have caught it during a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I find if you're gonna use SIM radars the SPC WRF is the best with these snow events, its 12Z run today was not bad, we'll see if the 00Z tonight which comes out around 1am still looks as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I find if you're gonna use SIM radars the SPC WRF is the best with these snow events, its 12Z run today was not bad, we'll see if the 00Z tonight which comes out around 1am still looks as good. cool.. thanks.. will keep that in mind.. I haven't had much experience in learning about the good and bad of the short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hard to believe that the Euro and the ensembles would bust this close to an event. The Euro was a little west this afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Hard to believe that the Euro and the ensembles would bust this close to an event. The Euro was a little west this afternoon lol There was a similar mesoscale type event last winter in January where many forecast 8-12 inches for eastern sections and the models briefly hinted in that direction only to basically the lose the norlun feature and the upper dynamics and I think most people saw 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Rain shpwer in brooklyn unbeliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Rain shpwer in brooklyn unbeliable To be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 00Z RGEM, for the last time thankfully for this storm, total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 good lord I may only be doing some spot salting tomorrow and not even enough to plow or break out a shovel..an inch is going to be tough to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Although the storm scenarios are not similar, the trending with the models with this storm reminds me of last year's April 1 storm and another storm around March 2, 2010 (winter of 09-10). With the April 1 storm, the models noticeably shifted east in the day before the storm with the result only light rain and non-accumulating snow for most, with the March 2, 2010 storm trending west on some models a day before the storm while quickly returning east. The latest models continue to trend drier, and while perhaps some could be a bit too dry, it would not surprise me at all if I end up with barely an inch, if not a bit less, on grassy surfaces by tomorrow afternoon when the main event ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 It pains me to use this colloquialism...but after all the bizzare solutions the last 72 hours...it's nowcasting time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 0z gfs matches the NAM thus far....looks awful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Gfs .10 city south.....from southern Monmouth county south its. 25+.....the interved trough hits them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Gfs .10 city south.....from southern Monmouth county south its. 25+.....the interved trough hits them. .25 + yes, but it's gets there with pretty much flurries every hour for 36 hrs. Weird, if that actually happens, Probibly would nt have more than inch on ground during any time within the next 36 hrs. Still, this is cool to track as the unexpected could still deny or surprise many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 RGEM looks better than the Nam and GFS. That's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 HRRR continues to look good. I hope this model verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 RGEM looks better than the Nam and GFS. That's encouraging. Let's see the WRF/MM5/ARW/NMM/RUC/HRRR trends, because they are the high-res short range models, and their opinion counts a lot at this stage. It will be interesting if the ARW is dry while the NMM is very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 HRRR continues to look good. I hope this model verifies. HRRR says congrats C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If the Nam/GFS are right, forget about any pavement accumulations, or maybe even much accumulation at all in the city and near the coast. Might be just a sloppy light mix or drizzle. Only this winter. RGEM still looks encouraging for maybe some real accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If the Nam/GFS are right, forget about any pavement accumulations, or maybe even much accumulation at all in the city and near the coast. Might be just a sloppy light mix or drizzle. Only this winter. RGEM still looks encouraging for maybe some real accumulations. If other short range models start to look better than the NAM/GFS, then I might reconsider my thoughts on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 There is still precipitation falling after that snow map, so add the snow totals a little more on the HRRR verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 If the 0z run of SUNY MM 5 is to be believed..it will snow on most of Long Island for no more than about 4 hours...from about 5:30 AM - 9:30 AM...and not heavily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 The 03Z RUC continues to be bullish with the inverted trough tomorrow, and is pretty wet for C NJ (QPF wise) QPF so far with the inverted trough. It is still precipitating, so there is more precipitation to fall after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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