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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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18z GFS has the storm affecting the area next weekend. Light precip that is.

f168.gif

This storm at least right now doesn't appear likely to become anything really big, with apparently not as much of southern stream involvement in this case, but the H5 loop is a mess in the western US/Canada over the next couple of days... while trends may or may not be towards a big system in this time frame, this is far from the last time the GFS will change the storm for this time frame.

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This storm at least right now doesn't appear likely to become anything really big, with apparently not as much of southern stream involvement in this case, but the H5 loop is a mess in the western US/Canada over the next couple of days... while trends may or may not be towards a big system in this time frame, this is far from the last time the GFS will change the storm for this time frame.

as with every other model as we get closer to this possible event. we may not know whats clearly going on till wednesday at the earliest and even that may be questionable given all the models inconsistency this year.

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I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea.

Even though MJO phase 8 is on average a dry look for the east coast, it is also a snowy one as well...particularly larger snowfalls have historically occurred in phase 8. Phase 7 going into phase 8 has produced some big ones which is the forecast for the RMM phases during the Feb 8-12 window....these past systems include February 11-12, 2006, January 22, 2005, Feb 16-18, 2003, Dec 5, 2002 among others.

But the upcoming period is likely to be influenced a lot more heavily by individual s/w interaction rather than the MJO phase.

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Even though MJO phase 8 is on average a dry look for the east coast, it is also a snowy one as well...particularly larger snowfalls have historically occurred in phase 8. Phase 7 going into phase 8 has produced some big ones which is the forecast for the RMM phases during the Feb 8-12 window....these past systems include February 11-12, 2006, January 22, 2005, Feb 16-18, 2003, Dec 5, 2002 among others.

But the upcoming period is likely to be influenced a lot more heavily by individual s/w interaction rather than the MJO phase.

Yeah we certainly can have a snowier than normal pattern w/ drier than normal precip, especially for SNE southward down the coast. However, it would be interesting to see of those cases you mentioned - which were propagating through phase 8 to phase 1, and which (if any) were rapidly dying in phase 8. I think a quick weakening in phase 8 promotes a different signal than a strong/amplified p 8 wave. It remains to be seen how potent this particular p 8 wave will be (if the Euro is correct, it'll be very low amplitude).

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Yeah we certainly can have a snowier than normal pattern w/ drier than normal precip, especially for SNE southward down the coast. However, it would be interesting to see of those cases you mentioned - which were propagating through phase 8 to phase 1, and which (if any) were rapidly dying in phase 8. I think a quick weakening in phase 8 promotes a different signal than a strong/amplified p 8 wave. It remains to be seen how potent this particular p 8 wave will be (if the Euro is correct, it'll be very low amplitude).

I'd wager to say that most if not all of those events Will mentioned did not look like this going into phase 8; they were probably more potent p7-8 waves (of course the ECMWF could be too weak, though I doubt by much):

27zdtmd.gif

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I'd wager to say that most if not all of those events Will mentioned did not look like this going into phase 8; they were probably more potent p7-8 waves (of course the ECMWF could be too weak, though I doubt by much):

Feb 2006 was a higher amplitude wave that weakened in phase 8 toward the COD when the event occured

21ayamh.jpg

Jan 2005 was a lower amplitude wave almost already into the COD in phase 8 when it happened

33tsbuw.jpg

Dec 2002 was a solid wave just heading from phase 7 into phase 8 and Feb 2003 was toiling around in the COD but in the phase 8 sector.

4ujw4y.jpg

I haven't actually found that many large events where the wave was screamingly robust from phase 8 into phase 1...a lot of them seem to like the weakening perhaps because its signaling a change in larger scale mass fields. But I don't think the MJO is the best thing to look at when you are starting to see some potential inside of 10 days anyway. If anything, the MJO forecasts are considerably less skillful than the 5H forecasts for the CONUS.

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So far it looks looks it looks the MJO is stronger than was progged in phase 6 by the ECMWF five days ago :

Jan 31:

Today:

Although it still might be right collapsing MJO between phases 7/8. It's continued forecast to stall in phases 6, next few days, makes it's forecasting going forward more suspect now. Especially, with the positive 850mb wind anomalies making coming out of Indonesia right now. I haven't seen this before all winter and this argues for more MJO progression:

The UKMET ensemble forecast looks like a good compromise between the GFS and ECMWF models. Which has decent MJO pulse going through phases 7 and 8. As Will noted above, we have seen large snowstorms with a decreasing amplitude signal, in these phases:

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Thanks for the info Will. I agree w/ the MJO not being as good of a tool as H5 synoptics when discussing a closer range potential. We'll see, maybe we can get something next weekend, although the PV orientation is somewhat unfavorable for a deepening s/w off the mid atlantic coast. You've got a better shot the further north you go in the next 7-10 days.

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Much better trough phasing with the southern stream s/w. These are significant changes. Im not sure yet if we will see a low deepen up the coast

Ugly start for us but at least it's a step closer to seeing something big, regardless of whether it's snow or rain for us...

EDIT: 162 hours actually is very close to a moderate/heavy type of snow, that's already better.

post-1753-0-54840700-1328416482.gif

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Ugly start for us but at least it's a step closer to seeing something big, regardless of whether it's snow or rain for us...

EDIT: 162 hours actually is very close to a moderate/heavy type of snow, that's already better.

post-1753-0-54840700-1328416482.gif

Not ugly; it's marginal. Room to trend better even if it can keep the storm.

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Still no blocking, and the high is too late to supply cold air before the storm arrives

I'd recommend taming your hopes for a significant snowstorm but anything can happen

Temps look fine for NYC and especially the NW suburbs on this run..

Brutal cold incoming after the storm with -20C 850s for NYC and the Hudson Bay vortex pressing south:

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Temps look fine for NYC and especially the NW suburbs on this run..

Yup, they do. But the last 4 runs the gfs has really started to make that northern stream more dominant, with no blocking wouldn't the storm keep trending west? Or would a more phased and stronger storm be better?

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I'm not sure the storm can get that far west with the monster PV over Hudson Bay.

Good point lol, interesting. So if these trends continue with the northerm stream becoming more dominant it would not suprise me to see a stronger storm heading up the coast. We'll see

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