SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 stick a fork in this one...what a year.... I still feel the models are having trouble forecasting this feature though and tonight's run will be the final straw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone have the 18z RGEM? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 As I said yesterday, this is a 'day late, dollar short' type of storm. 18Z RGEM total snow. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I still feel the models are having trouble forecasting this feature though and tonight's run will be the final straw. The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HRRR doesn't have much in the way of accumulation.. at least not through 8Z. The composite radar looks more impressive than what accums are predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think in this situation there will be surprises. Someone will get a 6 inches and most will get a coating. Somewhere a band will setup and dump with 30dbz type snow while the majority of the area has 15dbz type snow with marginal temps and struggle for a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI. agree - lots of unanswered questions - plus consider the flash freeze of all the slush tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI. agree - lots of unanswered questions - plus consider the flash freeze of all the slush tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 HRRR doesn't have much in the way of accumulation.. at least not through 8Z. The composite radar looks more impressive than what accums are predicted. Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 pretty sure every post u have is negative.... this year yes. With regard to the storm, the southern stream vortex is screwing it up, too many players on the field...disjointed and light precip field likely with marginal temps....the models are finally catching that now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason. Can I get a link to the models you guys look at, it would be greatly appreciated, and why are the models trending to a lighter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z nam going lighter with the precip - this event is going to be alot like the one earlier in the week - coating http://raleighwx.ame...amp24_NE024.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason. lack of connection, all these pieces of energy SO close to coming together, but not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The Tuesday event is actually now looking better on the GFS than tomorrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At least we have events to track in this awful warm pattern. One of these storms will hopefully come together to give us something more substantial. I'm hoping for a March 92 repeat just 3 - 4 weeks earlier (7" on 3/18, 4" on the 22nd after only about 3" total from Dec-March) Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The Tuesday event is actually now looking better on the GFS than tomorrows. No, tonight/tomorrow has more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not.... True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not.... True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like between 144-240 alot of potential neutral nao neutral positive Ao maybe -Epo and mjo phase 8-1.... did u guys see the GGEM for the 17th....very strong signal at H5 and surface.... we will just have to see sad that im going away 17th-27th.... Also watch the Nao and Ao be raging negative in april and we get 3 inches of rain equivelent to 30 inches of snow just a couple of months before' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem.... That kind of shows the model uncertainty and the fact that the models are struggling with this system because it shows a pretty radical change fro one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks like between 144-240 alot of potential neutral nao neutral positive Ao maybe -Epo and mjo phase 8-1.... did u guys see the GGEM for the 17th....very strong signal at H5 and surface.... we will just have to see sad that im going away 17th-27th.... Also watch the Nao and Ao be raging negative in april and we get 3 inches of rain equivelent to 30 inches of snow just a couple of months before' Stop...this one for 2mor had a great signal for weeks. The models have been awful. Banter thread this post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulyd Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That kind of shows the model uncertainty and the fact that the models are struggling with this system because it shows a pretty radical change fro one run to the next. Yep but now all models agree on .20< unlike yesterday where some were.50!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Somewhat OT, but why on earth are there 3 obs threads for this event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At this point, expect the least and hope for the most/best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason. Inverted trough focuses energy over NJ? But I know what you mean, I do believe a shield of precip extends through NJ/ SNY during that time before the low takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL, we have more threads already for this event than we ever did for any storm last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 LOL, we have more threads already for this event than we ever did for any storm last winter. The degree to which this winter and the response to it are pathetic is beyond measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And this is for a 1-3" event, < 1" pavements event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.