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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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I still feel the models are having trouble forecasting this feature though and tonight's run will be the final straw.

The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI.

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The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI.

agree - lots of unanswered questions - plus consider the flash freeze of all the slush tomorrow night

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The event has to be nowcasted, a shift of 30-40 miles and someone could wind up with zero vs. 3 inches...its impossible with these multiple lows and the models focusing energy into different areas to know where the main snow shield forms, the back edge could just as easily be over C-NJ or over western LI.

agree - lots of unanswered questions - plus consider the flash freeze of all the slush tomorrow night

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HRRR doesn't have much in the way of accumulation.. at least not through 8Z. The composite radar looks more impressive than what accums are predicted.

Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason.

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Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason.

Can I get a link to the models you guys look at, it would be greatly appreciated, and why are the models trending to a lighter storm?

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Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason.

lack of connection, all these pieces of energy SO close to coming together, but not quite

post-533-0-63564200-1328912393.jpg

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Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... :axe: That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change

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Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... :axe: That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change

yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not....

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At least we have events to track in this awful warm pattern. One of these storms will hopefully come together to give us something more substantial. I'm hoping for a March 92 repeat just 3 - 4 weeks earlier (7" on 3/18, 4" on the 22nd after only about 3" total from Dec-March)

Seasonal trend is unluckiness...last year seasonal trend was opposite....last year everything came right.... NYC should recieve 1 inch of sloppy snow..;.. So sad to see energy not coming together properly... :axe: That double barrel low hurt us in this case second low steels the vort energy and turns into one low with convection on east side due to the lack of vort energy to ur west..... Time to nowcast...look at 500mb maps precip shields and stuff like that.... lets hope something can change

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yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not....

True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem....

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yup--someone will luck out on this...most will not....

True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem....

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looks like between 144-240 alot of potential neutral nao neutral positive Ao maybe -Epo and mjo phase 8-1.... did u guys see the GGEM for the 17th....very strong signal at H5 and surface.... we will just have to see sad that im going away 17th-27th.... Also watch the Nao and Ao be raging negative in april and we get 3 inches of rain equivelent to 30 inches of snow just a couple of months before'

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True and our last chance is norlun trough which is unlikely... i will have to nowcast the norlun trough...Sad to see 12z Rgem went from .50 liquid equivelent to nyc on 12z to .10< on the 18z Rgem....

That kind of shows the model uncertainty and the fact that the models are struggling with this system because it shows a pretty radical change fro one run to the next.

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looks like between 144-240 alot of potential neutral nao neutral positive Ao maybe -Epo and mjo phase 8-1.... did u guys see the GGEM for the 17th....very strong signal at H5 and surface.... we will just have to see sad that im going away 17th-27th.... Also watch the Nao and Ao be raging negative in april and we get 3 inches of rain equivelent to 30 inches of snow just a couple of months before'

Stop...this one for 2mor had a great signal for weeks. The models have been awful. Banter thread this post!

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That kind of shows the model uncertainty and the fact that the models are struggling with this system because it shows a pretty radical change fro one run to the next.

Yep but now all models agree on .20< unlike yesterday where some were.50!!!!!

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Alot of the SIM radars I have looked at show that funny setup where from 08-12Z the precip shield sort of struggles to advance NE of roughly an Orange County-NYC line..now exactly sure what the reason for that is, sure doesn't seem as if dry air would be the reason.

Inverted trough focuses energy over NJ? But I know what you mean, I do believe a shield of precip extends through NJ/ SNY during that time before the low takes over

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