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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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The 12z RGEM being enthused with the inverted trough definitely made me a little more comfortable in forecasting some potential amounts over 3 inches. Regardless of boundary layer issues initially, the RGEM is still forecasting 10+mm of liquid equivalent snow over some areas of Northern New Jersey. On average 10-15mm is near or over 0.40" liquid..which if taken verbatim could mean a solid advisory level snowfall.

Unfortunately these inverted trough situations are extremely unpredictable and it will be difficult to pinpoint where it will set up..and if it will at all. But seeing some of the high res models (RGEM/NAM/MM5) showing it definitely piques my interest. It could be the saving grace from a trend which otherwise would have left us all with almost nothing from this system.

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The NAM Giveth (yesterday) and taketh away (today) When the NAM is dry, that's a big problem.

Alot of what the NAM showed was largely mesoscale based so its not too surprising its undergone changes. These sort of events are impossible to forecast, I would say going 1-3 inches covers you for about 80% of these scenarios, a small number of them will surprise you and drop 3-6 inches.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

335 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...SNOWFALL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

CTZ008-011-012-NYZ079-081-110500-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.120211T0500Z-120211T2300Z/

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

335 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

6 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...AS WELL

AS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN

AND SNOW. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON

SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING

INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL THEN TAPERS OFF BY

SATURDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE

FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED

VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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I was wondering about that run. It looks like the Nam was focusing more on the other low than the main low. The track doesn't look bad for NYC. It might be nowcasting time. This storm can go either way.

The surface low in these setups does not mean everything, there are many other factos in the mid-levels that can cause you to see significant snows, thats why they are so difficult to predict.

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Tonight: A chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then snow. Low around 32. North wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday: Snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain showers. High near 38. North wind between 7 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

My Point and click, I can live with that.

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