MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 looks to be about 25 miles west of 0z It looks like it. How are the precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It looks like it. How are the precip amounts? pretty decent at 0.29 at 00z....would be nice to see a small bump upwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It looks like it. How are the precip amounts? I don't have QPF figures for it. I would assume it is roughly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 pretty decent at 0.29 at 00z....would be nice to see a small bump upwards I think the 0z run had near .30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the 0z run had near .30. 0.29= near 0.3 lol...although I just realized I phrased what I was trying to say terribly. 00z run had 0.29 I don't know what the 12z has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 12z RGEM being enthused with the inverted trough definitely made me a little more comfortable in forecasting some potential amounts over 3 inches. Regardless of boundary layer issues initially, the RGEM is still forecasting 10+mm of liquid equivalent snow over some areas of Northern New Jersey. On average 10-15mm is near or over 0.40" liquid..which if taken verbatim could mean a solid advisory level snowfall. Unfortunately these inverted trough situations are extremely unpredictable and it will be difficult to pinpoint where it will set up..and if it will at all. But seeing some of the high res models (RGEM/NAM/MM5) showing it definitely piques my interest. It could be the saving grace from a trend which otherwise would have left us all with almost nothing from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 and it's possible that areas that don't benefit from the inverted trough get close to nothing due to light precip rates and warm BL temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NYC west is dry on the Nam. About .10 on this run. SNE is also dry except for the Cape. They get hit pretty good with .75 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NYC west is dry on the Nam. About .10 on this run. SNE is also dry except for the Cape. They get hit pretty good with .75 precip. Yeah. Looks on this run like an event for maybe Montauk Point out to the south shore of E NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM Giveth (yesterday) and taketh away (today) When the NAM is dry, that's a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM has been pretty bad this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM Giveth (yesterday) and taketh away (today) When the NAM is dry, that's a big problem. Alot of what the NAM showed was largely mesoscale based so its not too surprising its undergone changes. These sort of events are impossible to forecast, I would say going 1-3 inches covers you for about 80% of these scenarios, a small number of them will surprise you and drop 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Agree. And with the lack of precip and warm air, I might go Coating to 1 inch for a good chuck of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The NAM Giveth (yesterday) and taketh away (today) When the NAM is dry, that's a big problem. NAM cant figure out where it wants the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM cant figure out where it wants the low. I was wondering about that run. It looks like the Nam was focusing more on the other low than the main low. The track doesn't look bad for NYC. It might be nowcasting time. This storm can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 335 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...SNOWFALL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... CTZ008-011-012-NYZ079-081-110500- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.120211T0500Z-120211T2300Z/ NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 335 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...AS WELL AS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. * TIMING...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL THEN TAPERS OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was wondering about that run. It looks like the Nam was focusing more on the other low than the main low. The track doesn't look bad for NYC. It might be nowcasting time. This storm can go either way. The surface low in these setups does not mean everything, there are many other factos in the mid-levels that can cause you to see significant snows, thats why they are so difficult to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 When is the 18z RGEM coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 When is the 18z RGEM coming out? Half-hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Half-hour Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 upton doesnt even bother with WWA's west of New London to Riverhead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The surface low in these setups does not mean everything, there are many other factos in the mid-levels that can cause you to see significant snows, thats why they are so difficult to predict. Agree, I believe Philly got a surprise snowfall a few years ago from a Norlun that models didn't forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 upton doesnt even bother with WWA's west of New London to Riverhead... Theres one for my area west of riverhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Tonight: A chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then snow. Low around 32. North wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday: Snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain showers. High near 38. North wind between 7 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. My Point and click, I can live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You thought the 18z nam was ugly? ....18z gfs is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Damn, barely .1" in most places You thought the 18z nam was ugly? ....18z gfs is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 My Point and click, I can live with that. mt. holly went up. upton went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone have the 18z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Damn that sucks. We'll be lucky to get an inch if the Nam or gfs are correct. It just sucks it focuses on the southern vortext because the storm could have easily been a lot closer to the coast and we would have gotten more meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone have the 18z RGEM? As I said yesterday, this is a 'day late, dollar short' type of storm. 18Z RGEM total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.