MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z Ukie looks similiar to the GFS. 12z GGEM looks like it has a little more precip than the GFS for the coastal areas with an inverted trough over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, I recorded 6.3" in Colts Neck out of that. Very nice event, and I'd gladly take a 08-09 type winter over this year. The former was a blockbuster compared to this season. Same here, I believe it was a result of being under the lift associated with a gravity wave that dump the last 3" in the last hour of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 12Z SUNY MM5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I know. I like these type of events. I can go to bed and as long as I wake up to snow, I don't care how it happened, I'll be happy. close to 50 here today--doesnt feel like snow is coming...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GEFS is similiar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If the southern stream was more phased with the northern stream this could have been an easy 6-12 for someone. That STJ orientation would have bombed the low much closer to the coast with that 160kt max to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 ARW is really dry. Has about .10 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok I'm riding the SUNY model all the way!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok I'm riding the SUNY model all the way!!! Looks nice. Better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And the NMM is per usual, exceptionally wet giving .50 plus areawide. SUNI might still be a hair out of its killer range, I'd be pumped if it showed that .50+ stripe IMBY on the 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The often reliable SPC WRF shows that for NYC there is a decent snow period of 6-7 hours, there is certainly a pronounced gradient just to the east. The SPC and NAM sim radars also indicate that later tomorrow afternoon we need to watch as the 500 vort swings through, both show snows over E PA and SW NJ late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 And the NMM is per usual, exceptionally wet giving .50 plus areawide. It's not done yet through 39. It shows the inverted trough that the RGEM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NMM is much wetter than the ARW. NMM has the inverted trough, just like the RGEM and MM5. Philly and south-central Jersey sees .59-.75 on this run. NYC sees near .50. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F10%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like this inverted trough deal might be for real with most of the short range models showing this. This will move around a bit on the models. If my memory serves me well these usually end up a bit further northeast than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It's not done yet through 39. It shows the inverted trough that the RGEM is showing. Yeah, .75+ IMBY at 45, that'll happen. I can't tell you how many times this model broke my heart . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, .75+ IMBY at 45, that'll happen. I can't tell you how many times this model broke my heart . where does it get its wet bias from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is always too wet.. February 25-27, 2010 for us and February 5-6, 2010 for PHL area, which the NNM and ARW dropped 4" of liquid, which didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yeah, .75+ IMBY at 45, that'll happen. I can't tell you how many times this model broke my heart . It got it right Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Regardless of how much snow we see, it's going to get downright nasty around here tomorrow afternoon and evening behind the storm. 30-50 mph gusts, temps dropping through the 20s, probably 0-10 with the wind chill, flash freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 where does it get its wet bias from? I believe its a tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like this inverted trough deal might be for real with most of the short range models showing this. This will move around a bit on the models. If my memory serves me well these usually end up a bit further northeast than modeled. They are only about 50/50 to happen even when they show this close to an event. We had a storm last winter where most models showed one 24 hours out and I believe it never occurred. The setup at 500mb to me is not very conducive to an inverted trough forming, the 500mb trough usually has to be quite negative, the orientation of the trough over NYC is roughly a 340/160 orientation, you want to see something more like a 300/120 orientation. Note the 12/1988 event below how very negative the 500 trough is when its still well W and SW of NYC. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1988/us1214.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Having the RGEM support for this inverted trough makes me a little more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Having the RGEM support for this inverted trough makes me a little more comfortable. How much snow would we get if the RGEM verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Having the RGEM support for this inverted trough makes me a little more comfortable. Going to be some gradient in Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How much snow would we get if the RGEM verifies? 10-15mm of QPF is 0.4-0.6in. 3-6 probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Going to be some gradient in Nova Scotia. It goes from like 35mm to nothing over 20-30 miles. Thats like a foot and a half to nothing. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro? looks to be about 25 miles west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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