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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Yeah, I recorded 6.3" in Colts Neck out of that. Very nice event, and I'd gladly take a 08-09 type winter over this year. The former was a blockbuster compared to this season.

Same here, I believe it was a result of being under the lift associated with a gravity wave that dump the last 3" in the last hour of that storm.

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The often reliable SPC WRF shows that for NYC there is a decent snow period of 6-7 hours, there is certainly a pronounced gradient just to the east. The SPC and NAM sim radars also indicate that later tomorrow afternoon we need to watch as the 500 vort swings through, both show snows over E PA and SW NJ late in the day.

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Looks like this inverted trough deal might be for real with most of the short range models showing this. This will move around a bit on the models. If my memory serves me well these usually end up a bit further northeast than modeled.

They are only about 50/50 to happen even when they show this close to an event. We had a storm last winter where most models showed one 24 hours out and I believe it never occurred. The setup at 500mb to me is not very conducive to an inverted trough forming, the 500mb trough usually has to be quite negative, the orientation of the trough over NYC is roughly a 340/160 orientation, you want to see something more like a 300/120 orientation. Note the 12/1988 event below how very negative the 500 trough is when its still well W and SW of NYC.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1988/us1214.php

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