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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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I went with 1-3" throughout most of the area, with the lower end of those amounts on the Jersey Shore.

When you have boundary layer problems like this, typically they can be pretty tough to scour out with the lack of any heavy precipitation or dynamics. In this case the surface low not deepening rapidly until it's well past the area will ultimately hurt totals near the coast.

That being said...I'm happy with 1-3" for the most part...pretty much a moderate snowstorm under this winters criteria.

I agree. My argument is not against any accumulation here. But against significant accumulation, without heavier snowfall rates. Especially in NYC metro. The October storm had more dynamics, heavy snowfall rates.

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I'm not talking about the whole area in my last post, I'm mostly talking about coastal areas, so I should have clarified. If the 0.25"+ all comes at once in a good batch, then you see accumulations everywhere. This seems to be different in that comes in showery waves rather than a large batch of steady snow. Maybe eastern areas can get further enhancements from the coastal low development. I admittedly haven't seen soundings from the NAM yet, but if they're as warm as yesterday, 35 or 36 degrees, it would have a hard time sticking to roads. It might be too warm, and if we got down to 33-34 we would have problems. This airmass though won't yield a high ratio, fluffy snow. It's likely a straight 10-1 if not slightly under. I'd say most likely it's a 1-3" type deal with spot 4" around where heavier snows persist longer.

That said, anything that whitens up the ground this year is a bonus, as others have said. And hopefully we're in the process of changing the pattern in favor of more storminess.

The Roebber Neural Network (http://sanders.math....tio/sr_intro.pl) for Newark at 06Z (as an average for the area) gives an 85% chance of snow ratios greater than 9:1, so using this technique ratios could [most likely] be in the 14-15:1 vicinity. I last looked at actual soundings yesterday and this doesn't incorporate the 12Z NAM yet but toward the latter half of the storm the negative omega was focused more toward the snow growth region which may lead to more riming and denser snowflakes, so the ratios may tend to be slightly lower than that. Either way, this tool doesn't make me believe it'll be a "heavy" snow with ratios under 10:1, but this is only one tool in a plethora of them and I don't have access to BUFKIT to view the Cobb algorithm for snow ratios, either. (With so little QPF, it might be hard to measure a significant difference to accurately determine snow ratios anyway, but at least it doesn't look too windy).

I just looked at the RNN for Rutgers for 12Z and it shows about a 50% chance of ratios in the 9:1-15:1 range, with 25% chance of ratios on either side of that, and that is when the bulk of the snowfall occurs (if you can even call it a "bulk" :lol:).

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2/3/09 - 2/4/09 shows up as #3 for the CIPS analogs. This is not the worst analog in the world, the upper trough was more broad and the surface low stronger and forming earlier but there are some similarities.

I was looking at this event yesterday actually. It seemed similar to me in the evolution..I recall much of the day was just a light wet snow with temps around or just above freezing...plastered all colder surfaces with 3-4 inches as the roads remained wet...Then at the tail end the arctic air filled in and we got a burst of dendrites adding another 1-2" or so. That was also the time a weird mesoscale bands stayed over philly and south jersey for several more hours and they ended up with 8-10 inches in a narrow stripe.

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rgem is a nyc metro cream dream, ivt gives the island back into nyc proper and nj 10-15 mm of snow.

solid.

its going to be fun watching the mesoscale features work themselves out.

That inv. trough looks to be the wild card here for sure, and could pack some surprises. Those are very tough to nail down and are fairly localized.

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I was looking at this event yesterday actually. It seemed similar to me in the evolution..I recall much of the day was just a light wet snow with temps around or just above freezing...plastered all colder surfaces with 3-4 inches as the roads remained wet...Then at the tail end the arctic air filled in and we got a burst of dendrites adding another 1-2" or so. That was also the time a weird mesoscale bands stayed over philly and south jersey for several more hours and they ended up with 8-10 inches in a narrow stripe.

Did not start sticking to the roads until night time.....close to 4 in Edison....Holmdel actually did related well.....3-4 accumulated on roads.....have pics on my fb albums

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RGEM precip type. The inverted trough really helps NYC on this run.

I_nw_r1_EST_2012021012_035.png

this map shows the inverted trough sig very nicely look at the kink west in the isobars back towards the area, lower heights from the offshore low back to the ns vorticity, nice convergence, and if this indeed sets up some nice snows and radar grabs.

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Did not start sticking to the roads until night time.....close to 4 in Edison....Holmdel actually did related well.....3-4 accumulated on roads.....have pics on my fb albums

Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel..

looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion.

I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area

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Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel..

looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion.

I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area

Yeah did not mean to disagree.....was a nice little storm for us....great to hear ur thoughts bud

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GFS doesnt look all that great--with lighter snows and not much cold air around, going to be hard to stay all snow for some areas.

also doesnt have the inverted trough that the NAM has

I think the mesoscale models pick up on the inverted troughs better. Not sure about that. The RGEM also shows the inverted trough right over the area.

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Based on the GFS. I wouldn't assume its QPF output is the final result. Also it has it drop down to the freezing mark by just after midnight now west of the city. I don't know that it will work out that we get the maximum precip and colder temps.

we're going to need that for this to work out ok. Otherwise, it's an inch for most.

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Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel..

looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion.

I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area

Yeah, I recorded 6.3" in Colts Neck out of that. Very nice event, and I'd gladly take a 08-09 type winter over this year. The former was a blockbuster compared to this season.

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Based on the GFS. I wouldn't assume its QPF output is the final result. Also it has it drop down to the freezing mark by just after midnight now west of the city. I don't know that it will work out that we get the maximum precip and colder temps.

close to 50 here today--doesnt feel like snow is coming...LOL

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