Weathergun Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I went with 1-3" throughout most of the area, with the lower end of those amounts on the Jersey Shore. When you have boundary layer problems like this, typically they can be pretty tough to scour out with the lack of any heavy precipitation or dynamics. In this case the surface low not deepening rapidly until it's well past the area will ultimately hurt totals near the coast. That being said...I'm happy with 1-3" for the most part...pretty much a moderate snowstorm under this winters criteria. I agree. My argument is not against any accumulation here. But against significant accumulation, without heavier snowfall rates. Especially in NYC metro. The October storm had more dynamics, heavy snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like the RGEM is more east than the Nam.It has an inverted trough over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Anyone got BUFKIT for lets say TTN...NAM shows a healthy .5-.75 total there after the inverted trough pulls on through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm not talking about the whole area in my last post, I'm mostly talking about coastal areas, so I should have clarified. If the 0.25"+ all comes at once in a good batch, then you see accumulations everywhere. This seems to be different in that comes in showery waves rather than a large batch of steady snow. Maybe eastern areas can get further enhancements from the coastal low development. I admittedly haven't seen soundings from the NAM yet, but if they're as warm as yesterday, 35 or 36 degrees, it would have a hard time sticking to roads. It might be too warm, and if we got down to 33-34 we would have problems. This airmass though won't yield a high ratio, fluffy snow. It's likely a straight 10-1 if not slightly under. I'd say most likely it's a 1-3" type deal with spot 4" around where heavier snows persist longer. That said, anything that whitens up the ground this year is a bonus, as others have said. And hopefully we're in the process of changing the pattern in favor of more storminess. The Roebber Neural Network (http://sanders.math....tio/sr_intro.pl) for Newark at 06Z (as an average for the area) gives an 85% chance of snow ratios greater than 9:1, so using this technique ratios could [most likely] be in the 14-15:1 vicinity. I last looked at actual soundings yesterday and this doesn't incorporate the 12Z NAM yet but toward the latter half of the storm the negative omega was focused more toward the snow growth region which may lead to more riming and denser snowflakes, so the ratios may tend to be slightly lower than that. Either way, this tool doesn't make me believe it'll be a "heavy" snow with ratios under 10:1, but this is only one tool in a plethora of them and I don't have access to BUFKIT to view the Cobb algorithm for snow ratios, either. (With so little QPF, it might be hard to measure a significant difference to accurately determine snow ratios anyway, but at least it doesn't look too windy). I just looked at the RNN for Rutgers for 12Z and it shows about a 50% chance of ratios in the 9:1-15:1 range, with 25% chance of ratios on either side of that, and that is when the bulk of the snowfall occurs (if you can even call it a "bulk" ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM precip type. The inverted trough really helps NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 2/3/09 - 2/4/09 shows up as #3 for the CIPS analogs. This is not the worst analog in the world, the upper trough was more broad and the surface low stronger and forming earlier but there are some similarities. I was looking at this event yesterday actually. It seemed similar to me in the evolution..I recall much of the day was just a light wet snow with temps around or just above freezing...plastered all colder surfaces with 3-4 inches as the roads remained wet...Then at the tail end the arctic air filled in and we got a burst of dendrites adding another 1-2" or so. That was also the time a weird mesoscale bands stayed over philly and south jersey for several more hours and they ended up with 8-10 inches in a narrow stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem is a nyc metro cream dream, ivt gives the island back into nyc proper and nj 10-15 mm of snow. solid. its going to be fun watching the mesoscale features work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z GFS is east of the Nam but it's also slightly colder than the Nam. The amounts look the same as the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 rgem is a nyc metro cream dream, ivt gives the island back into nyc proper and nj 10-15 mm of snow. solid. its going to be fun watching the mesoscale features work themselves out. That inv. trough looks to be the wild card here for sure, and could pack some surprises. Those are very tough to nail down and are fairly localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was looking at this event yesterday actually. It seemed similar to me in the evolution..I recall much of the day was just a light wet snow with temps around or just above freezing...plastered all colder surfaces with 3-4 inches as the roads remained wet...Then at the tail end the arctic air filled in and we got a burst of dendrites adding another 1-2" or so. That was also the time a weird mesoscale bands stayed over philly and south jersey for several more hours and they ended up with 8-10 inches in a narrow stripe. Did not start sticking to the roads until night time.....close to 4 in Edison....Holmdel actually did related well.....3-4 accumulated on roads.....have pics on my fb albums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New GFS is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RGEM precip type. The inverted trough really helps NYC on this run. this map shows the inverted trough sig very nicely look at the kink west in the isobars back towards the area, lower heights from the offshore low back to the ns vorticity, nice convergence, and if this indeed sets up some nice snows and radar grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Did not start sticking to the roads until night time.....close to 4 in Edison....Holmdel actually did related well.....3-4 accumulated on roads.....have pics on my fb albums Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel.. looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion. I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New GFS is ugly nah its ok .30 NYC - .40 accross LI - its fine falls inline with Euro and a smidge less than Nam Think yesterdays 18z nam run got everyone`s attention , since then .3 - .5 has been the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like a 1-3er 2-4,maybe.This Feb is reminding me alot of Feb 72..winter 71-72 analog is working out fine..and to top it off that winters biggest storm was on Feb 19th..mmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel.. looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion. I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area Yeah did not mean to disagree.....was a nice little storm for us....great to hear ur thoughts bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New gfs .25+ from gsp east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Actually its .18 for NYC New gfs .25+ from gsp east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS still gives snow but track is clearly more east compared to last night's 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Actually its .18 for NYC A little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well the text printout must be wrong then SAT 00Z 11-FEB 2.7 -5.3 1016 68 93 0.01 550 538 SAT 06Z 11-FEB 0.2 -5.2 1013 87 95 0.04 545 535 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.2 -5.8 1009 92 98 0.09 540 533 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 3.5 -6.8 1004 72 86 0.04 532 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS doesnt look all that great--with lighter snows and not much cold air around, going to be hard to stay all snow for some areas. also doesnt have the inverted trough that the NAM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS doesnt look all that great--with lighter snows and not much cold air around, going to be hard to stay all snow for some areas. also doesnt have the inverted trough that the NAM has I think the mesoscale models pick up on the inverted troughs better. Not sure about that. The RGEM also shows the inverted trough right over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the mesoscale models pick up on the inverted troughs better. Not sure about that. The RGEM also shows the inverted trough right over the area. we're going to need that for this to work out ok. Otherwise, it's an inch for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 we're going to need that for this to work out ok. Otherwise, it's an inch for most. 1-3/2-4 is a good call. 1-3 is a better call. Upton is going with 2-4 inches for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS doesnt look all that great--with lighter snows and not much cold air around, going to be hard to stay all snow for some areas. also doesnt have the inverted trough that the NAM has Models look like they're trending colder today. It should be all snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Based on the GFS. I wouldn't assume its QPF output is the final result. Also it has it drop down to the freezing mark by just after midnight now west of the city. I don't know that it will work out that we get the maximum precip and colder temps. we're going to need that for this to work out ok. Otherwise, it's an inch for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yup that final burst with the inverted trough was most enhanced over Monmouth County (My last post was talking about New Brunswick area where I was at the time)..We ended up with 6 - 6.5 inches in Holmdel.. looking at that 12z Canadian regional radar thing, it has this event going down very similar to that Feb 09 event in my opinion. I'm still going with a general 1-3" though for the area Yeah, I recorded 6.3" in Colts Neck out of that. Very nice event, and I'd gladly take a 08-09 type winter over this year. The former was a blockbuster compared to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At this range, stick with the meso scales, will do a better job than GFS on Norlun like features. Still, that Norlun can jump around inside 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Based on the GFS. I wouldn't assume its QPF output is the final result. Also it has it drop down to the freezing mark by just after midnight now west of the city. I don't know that it will work out that we get the maximum precip and colder temps. close to 50 here today--doesnt feel like snow is coming...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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