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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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This is crazy, a METs nightmare, It could be 3-6 or a coating. Not for nothing but the forecasts of 40+ are a bit ridiculous.

A very sneaky storm. This is the classic dangerous negative tilted 500 trough with the NNW moving surface low over New England or off the SNE coast I always hate forecasting. On the surface they do not look that bad but the upper level vort can sometimes surprise you as it swings through and produce decent snows. This event does not impress me much so far at 700mb nor the fact the strong Midwest high is nosing as far east as it seemingly can trying to provid some form of subsidence as the 500 trough swings across.

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This is crazy, a METs nightmare, It could be 3-6 or a coating. Not for nothing but the forecasts of 40+ are a bit ridiculous.

Looks like it's becoming a shared out messy storm that has little organized heavy precip. The Euro and NAM look like it's mostly showery snow that could have a hard time accumulating with the warm, stale air in place. Might even lose some to rain near the coast because we can't get dynamics in place long enough. At best I could see this being a 2-5" deal mostly like the 1/21 storm. I think for most though it's an inch or two of slop.

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With the lighter, nondynamic precip you have to ask yourself about the BL. It might not be cold enough to accumulate much snow near the coast except on grass.

Yes but the nam slightly expanded on the precip coverage. It developed 1 low instead of a million lows. This run would most likely give the area 2-4 inches which is good, considering the winter that we experienced.

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Whos to say the precip is going to be non dynamic? You? Just because the precip is lighter on the QPF side doesnt mean there arent dynamics at play causing it. If ts flurries, it wont accumulate. Everyone forgets 3 weeks ago...the only dynamics at play there was warm advection and it was weak and we ALL got accumulating snow.

With the lighter, nondynamic precip you have to ask yourself about the BL. It might not be cold enough to accumulate much snow near the coast except on grass.

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Whos to say the precip is going to be non dynamic? You? Just because the precip is lighter on the QPF side doesnt mean there arent dynamics at play causing it. If ts flurries, it wont accumulate. Everyone forgets 3 weeks ago...the only dynamics at play there was warm advection and it was weak and we ALL got accumulating snow.

The antecedent airmass was much colder and drier though.

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Yes, then how come from a very light snow on Wednesday there was road issues? We had temps approach 40 that day and it stuck to roads. Yes this one is a morning event but many areas may see snow start before sunrise.

Oh and in October.. I bet none of you thought it would stick to roads.. look what happened. Yes that was a little heavier but I think you can understand my point.

The antecedent airmass was much colder and drier though.

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Yes, then how come from a very light snow on Wednesday there was road issues? We had temps approach 40 that day and it stuck to roads. Yes this one is a morning event but many areas may see snow start before sunrise.

Oh and in October.. I bet none of you thought it would stick to roads.. look what happened. Yes that was a little heavier but I think you can understand my point.

I think the point that so many people miss is that if model QPF is to be believed, anything over a quarter inch of liquid equivalent, if snow, will accumulate. period. you will not get that type of QPF with flurries. So those calling for the snow to be so light as to not stick are essentially saying they don't believe the QPF output, not necessarily the temperature profile, though that is what they attribute it to.

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Interesting to see the inverted trough swing south this run, bringing a nice slug of precip into parts of nj and eastern pa, this feature will move around. Nam continues to improve the ns energy and has a nice vort max swings se to prolong precip tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night from nyc south and west. The final chapter on this event is far from being written, and by the way the srefs have been less than stellar this season.

Expect some suprises this weekend, in this dreadful winter this will indeed by an oasis of fun.

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I think the point that so many people miss is that if model QPF is to be believed, anything over a quarter inch of liquid equivalent, if snow, will accumulate. period. you will not get that type of QPF with flurries. So those calling for the snow to be so light as to not stick are essentially saying they don't believe the QPF output, not necessarily the temperature profile, though that is what they attribute it to.

I'm not talking about the whole area in my last post, I'm mostly talking about coastal areas, so I should have clarified. If the 0.25"+ all comes at once in a good batch, then you see accumulations everywhere. This seems to be different in that comes in showery waves rather than a large batch of steady snow. Maybe eastern areas can get further enhancements from the coastal low development. I admittedly haven't seen soundings from the NAM yet, but if they're as warm as yesterday, 35 or 36 degrees, it would have a hard time sticking to roads. It might be too warm, and if we got down to 33-34 we would have problems. This airmass though won't yield a high ratio, fluffy snow. It's likely a straight 10-1 if not slightly under. I'd say most likely it's a 1-3" type deal with spot 4" around where heavier snows persist longer.

That said, anything that whitens up the ground this year is a bonus, as others have said. And hopefully we're in the process of changing the pattern in favor of more storminess.

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Interesting to see the inverted trough swing south this run, bringing a nice slug of precip into parts of nj and eastern pa, this feature will move around. Nam continues to improve the ns energy and has a nice vort max swings se to prolong precip tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night from nyc south and west. The final chapter on this event is far from being written, and by the way the srefs have been less than stellar this season.

Expect some suprises this weekend, in this dreadful winter this will indeed by an oasis of fun.

Good post-agree. And with falling temps and wind in the PM will be fun.

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I went with 1-3" throughout most of the area, with the lower end of those amounts on the Jersey Shore.

When you have boundary layer problems like this, typically they can be pretty tough to scour out with the lack of any heavy precipitation or dynamics. In this case the surface low not deepening rapidly until it's well past the area will ultimately hurt totals near the coast.

That being said...I'm happy with 1-3" for the most part...pretty much a moderate snowstorm under this winters criteria.

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