Quincy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 honk HONK. radar/satellite/WV imagery already looks impressive across the Lower Mississippi Valley. feelin' pretty good about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A jan 2000 latent heat special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A jan 2000 latent heat special? Lolz.... Doubt we ever see something like that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lolz.... Doubt we ever see something like that again I don't think we can in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 The SPC WRF looks decent at 36 hours -- but it's at the very tail end of the model run. So it's nothing to get really excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lolz.... Doubt we ever see something like that again Last years Boxing Day event was as close as you'll come most likely. Huge trend at 36 hrs with tremendous implications on a huge holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The northern stream has still been trending more amplified with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't think we can in this day and age. I think it's possible, but one of the lessons learned from that storm as published in the nc state study on raleighwx's page is to use other signals and not to rely strictly on model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Didn't Kocin's Boxing day report contribute some of that storms model mayham to the inablity to account for latent heat transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Last years Boxing Day event was as close as you'll come most likely. Huge trend at 36 hrs with tremendous implications on a huge holiday. Very True, John. Never forgot that, however, what made Jan 2000 very unique was 6 hours of lead time; the radar exploded, than wham DC area, got 18 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Didn't Kocin's Boxing day report contribute some of that storms model mayham to the inablity to account for latent heat transfer? I believe so.. It still a problem just as convection can play havoc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's possible, but one of the lessons learned from that storm as published in the nc state study on raleighwx's page is to use other signals and not to rely strictly on model output. You would think we would have learned something. But, yes, no one should ever use model output 100% of the time, that's probably why Jan 2000 got burned somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GEFS is juiced.... Prob gonna be some anomalous solutions in this batch... Trivial at this stage but fun to look at and may offer clues regarding the gfs and nams feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 You would think we would have learned something. But, yes, no one should ever use model output 100% of the time, that's probably why Jan 2000 got burned somewhat. Especially when just 24 hrs before anyone could clearly see northern stream vort digging down towards the gulf on the water vapor loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GEFS is juiced.... Prob gonna be some anomalous solutions in this batch... Trivial at this stage but fun to look at and may offer clues regarding the gfs and nams feedback issues hmm nothing from HPC about feedback issues. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 One thing is for sure, the CONUS water vapor is really quite juiced. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECWV.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 My gut says we'll see a lot of rain/snow showers and only a couple of inches of snow tops. Maybe if it was a different winter, I'd say more but I'm not too thrilled about this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro still doesn't look that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Euro still doesn't look that good. Can ou give an idea of total QPF on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Will ( Orh ) Euro did continue with the ongoing theme of digging the northern stream deeper...so obviously it needs to be watched still. It was actually weaker with the southern vortmax this run. But it just has trouble wrapping everything up in time for a large event.Still with that baroclinic zone in place and those height falls, I would remain ont he more optimistic side for one of the few times this winter. Can ou give an idea of total QPF on it? I don't have the QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can ou give an idea of total QPF on it? For NYC SAT 06Z 11-FEB 1.6 -4.0 1013 86 98 0.04 545 535 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 1.1 -4.2 1008 95 99 0.14 540 533 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 3.6 -6.4 1004 71 91 0.11 532 529 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.5 -7.6 1003 76 86 0.01 523 521 12 Z was .19 so this is more QPF then 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Will ( Orh ) I don't have the QPF map. Who is your source qpf almost doubled for the city:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who is your source qpf almost doubled for the city:) From another board. I deleted my post when Atown posted the QPF lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 .25 - .30 generally falls in line with the other guidance...so I wouldn't be too concerned about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 .25 - .30 generally falls in line with the other guidance...so I wouldn't be too concerned about it. Its more mesoscale on the Euro though than other guidance (except the NAM)...it tries to enhance it a tad via an inverted trough which is unlikely to continue on future runs if it remains disorganized like that. You generally prefer to see the qpf shield look solid and it most definitely is not on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Its more mesoscale on the Euro though than other guidance (except the NAM)...it tries to enhance it a tad via an inverted trough which is unlikely to continue on future runs if it remains disorganized like that. You generally prefer to see the qpf shield look solid and it most definitely is not on the 00z Euro. The GEFS are likely too amped and far west..and also too wet as a result. I've seen them do this way too many times to believe it anymore. It may still be a possibility that the precipitation shield ends up better organized...but at this point I would not even come close to including the GEFS mean in my forecast. Speaking of which...I heard somewhere that they were planning to make upgrades to the GEFS sometime soon. They need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The GEFS are likely too amped and far west..and also too wet as a result. I've seen them do this way too many times to believe it anymore. It may still be a possibility that the precipitation shield ends up better organized...but at this point I would not even come close to including the GEFS mean in my forecast. Speaking of which...I heard somewhere that they were planning to make upgrades to the GEFS sometime soon. They need it. From http://www.hpc.ncep....26-11_final.htm Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEFS) Major upgrade planned for February 2012. Yuejian Zhu presented plans. The GEFS upgrade will include: -using current operational GFS -increase in horizontal resolution from 70 km to 55 km (T254) for 0-192 h, and 70 km (T190) for 192-394 hours -increase in vertical resolution from 28 to 42 layers for 0-384 hours Improvements in the mean and probabilistic verification were shown. A warm bias in the operational GFS is also evident in the GEFS and could be improve via bias correction. Given that the GEFS will impact the NAEFS, a analysis of the impact on NAEFS may be necessary. While the individual ensemble member data will be 20 minutes later than at present, the probability products may be as much as 5 minute earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 06Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 So the RGEM raises more questions then anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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