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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Last years Boxing Day event was as close as you'll come most likely. Huge trend at 36 hrs with tremendous implications on a huge holiday.

Very True, John.

Never forgot that, however, what made Jan 2000 very unique was 6 hours of lead time; the radar exploded, than wham DC area, got 18 inches of snow.

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I think it's possible, but one of the lessons learned from that storm as published in the nc state study on raleighwx's page is to use other signals and not to rely strictly on model output.

You would think we would have learned something. :whistle: But, yes, no one should ever use model output 100% of the time, that's probably why Jan 2000 got burned somewhat.

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You would think we would have learned something. :whistle: But, yes, no one should ever use model output 100% of the time, that's probably why Jan 2000 got burned somewhat.

Especially when just 24 hrs before anyone could clearly see northern stream vort digging down towards the gulf on the water vapor loop.

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Will ( Orh )

Euro did continue with the ongoing theme of digging the northern stream deeper...so obviously it needs to be watched still. It was actually weaker with the southern vortmax this run. But it just has trouble wrapping everything up in time for a large event.

Still with that baroclinic zone in place and those height falls, I would remain ont he more optimistic side for one of the few times this winter.

Can ou give an idea of total QPF on it?

I don't have the QPF map.

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.25 - .30 generally falls in line with the other guidance...so I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

Its more mesoscale on the Euro though than other guidance (except the NAM)...it tries to enhance it a tad via an inverted trough which is unlikely to continue on future runs if it remains disorganized like that.

You generally prefer to see the qpf shield look solid and it most definitely is not on the 00z Euro.

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Its more mesoscale on the Euro though than other guidance (except the NAM)...it tries to enhance it a tad via an inverted trough which is unlikely to continue on future runs if it remains disorganized like that.

You generally prefer to see the qpf shield look solid and it most definitely is not on the 00z Euro.

The GEFS are likely too amped and far west..and also too wet as a result. I've seen them do this way too many times to believe it anymore.

It may still be a possibility that the precipitation shield ends up better organized...but at this point I would not even come close to including the GEFS mean in my forecast.

Speaking of which...I heard somewhere that they were planning to make upgrades to the GEFS sometime soon. They need it.

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The GEFS are likely too amped and far west..and also too wet as a result. I've seen them do this way too many times to believe it anymore.

It may still be a possibility that the precipitation shield ends up better organized...but at this point I would not even come close to including the GEFS mean in my forecast.

Speaking of which...I heard somewhere that they were planning to make upgrades to the GEFS sometime soon. They need it.

From http://www.hpc.ncep....26-11_final.htm

Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEFS)

Major upgrade planned for February 2012.

Yuejian Zhu presented plans. The GEFS upgrade will include:

-using current operational GFS

-increase in horizontal resolution from 70 km to 55 km (T254) for 0-192 h, and 70 km (T190) for 192-394 hours

-increase in vertical resolution from 28 to 42 layers for 0-384 hours

Improvements in the mean and probabilistic verification were shown. A warm bias in the operational GFS is also evident in the GEFS and could be improve via bias correction.

Given that the GEFS will impact the NAEFS, a analysis of the impact on NAEFS may be necessary.

While the individual ensemble member data will be 20 minutes later than at present, the probability products may be as much as 5 minute earlier.

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