Guest Pamela Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Lol...maybe not with an 0z NAM Hour 42 temp at 2m of 36.7 @ White Plains....I don't believe it either....crappy antecedent airmass or not....February...offshore low....north wind...850's near negative 5C....surface should be around freezing....just perusing the text outputs...I'd say those 2m temp look about 5 degrees too warm...give or take a degree... Something screwy with that run....18z @ 42 hours surface winds at LGA are at 8 degrees...which is practically due north....0z @ 36 hours (same time, same place) surface winds are 83 degrees or almost due east...while the offshore surface feature continues to march NE on both charts...I'm not a betting man...but I think the 6z run will almost certainly come in with cooler readings @ 2m... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z CMC still bring some light to locally moderate snow, but the overall set up is still terrible with this run... interestingly it also adds that inverted trough feature that the 0z NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Something screwy with that run....18z @ 42 hours surface winds at LGA are at 8 degrees...which is practically due north....0z @ 36 hours (same time, same place) surface winds are 83 degrees or almost due east...while the offshore surface feature continues to march NE on both charts...I'm not a betting man...but I think the 6z run will almost certainly come in with cooler readings @ 2m... William, I believe it maybe picking up on the ivt, norlun feature that exists over the area, it belted out some very impressive qpf numbers up here, just a guess though, hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM BUFKIT Sounding for KISP for February 11th, 20Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 0z CMC still bring some light to locally moderate snow, but the overall set up is still terrible with this run... interestingly it also adds that inverted trough feature that the 0z NAM has. Looks like the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like the 12z? It looks quite similar to the 12z CMC for the area, which also wasn't very impressive with the whole storm, but this run emphasizes the inverted trough compared to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hr 33 is all light snow for the area...1008 over eastern nc .10 for area so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS is a bit more amplified with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hr 36 light snow continues....mod snow central jersey south....low just east of norfolk Pushing .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Oh boyy looks fairly decent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS really tries to wrap up the vort, pulls the precip shield a bit closer to the coast. This could get interesting, definitely a nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hour 36 at least for now has a single low pressure instead of two LPs... precip looks better than the 18z run, even focuses the low pressure closer to the coast until now and is a bit wetter than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 When considering the 18z GFS, really not that bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hr 39 low 1004 75 miles east of acy....surface temps just west of del river....850 cold..... Hr 42 surface warms even more....low kicks east... Qpf. Close to. 50 at hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Check the 850 low just east of montauk,this storm should come even more west then 00z says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The surface looks warm tho on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fwiw sv snow map has 2-4 for nyc west....nothing for long island and 4-8 from orh-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fwiw sv snow map has 2-4 for nyc west....nothing for long island and 4-8 from orh-bos Willing to bet north shores of li do better with this system then nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is one of these 'Day late, dollar short' type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Fwiw sv snow map has 2-4 for nyc west....nothing for long island and 4-8 from orh-bos I'm still not buying that a tighter, more organized storm just brings rain to Long Island with the upper air that cold. If the winds stay northerly and there's some drain of cold air from inland, I just don't see it unless it's just a boring batch of stratiform light precip. It's stale air so it will be a sloppy snow, but I think it's snow for most if we see a more organized low and more dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Storm really wraps up good once it heads north...big time LLJ..GFS showing 90+ knots at 850 mb near nova scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a snow sounding for Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Willing to bet north shores of li do better with this system then nyc. I recall disagreeing with you when you made a similar claim on a December storm a few years back...and I turned out to be correct...however, this time, I agree with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm still not buying that a tighter, more organized storm just brings rain to Long Island with the upper air that cold. If the winds stay northerly and there's some drain of cold air from inland, I just don't see it unless it's just a boring batch of stratiform light precip. It's stale air so it will be a sloppy snow, but I think it's snow for most if we see a more organized low and more dynamics. Don't mean to cause a stir....as I don't know how reliable those maps are...its definitely colder then the nam...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is a snow sounding for Long Island... Due north surface wind.. That's as good as you can ask for in keeping surface temps in check.... Saturated through the snow growth layer too and I bet there is probably good forced ascent that level too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is all snow for NJ, CT, AND MOST OF lONG iSLAND - LOOK AT THE SOUNDINGS PEOPLE. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I know the GFS PBL scheme causes issues for the surface temps which is why its above 32 there. I dont think it knows LI fully exists so it thinks its the LI sound. It was constantly too warm with the event 3 weeks ago. Due north surface wind.. That's as good as you can ask for in keeping surface temps in check.... Saturated through the snow growth layer too and I bet there is probably good forced ascentat that level too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00Z RGEM three-hour dominant p-type for 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ggem takes a low around the bm but not much qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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