Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Soundings are snow across northern NJ Only level I see above freezing on noaas site is surface and that looks kinda bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A lot of areas could see rain with the NAM. Looks rather warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 not for inland areas For the comment about LI I think he asked. Not inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I can pretty much guarantee the final solution won't look like this. The NAM has feedback issues with two lows b/t 39-50hrs then transfers the sfc low way easy at the next frame. More likely it will be a consolidated area of low pressure riding the thermal gradient offshore, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 honestly, not sure at the coast with looks like a long duration light to moderate precip, may not be dynamic enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 Although the surface did not respond totally, this run, the NAM was much more amplified with the northern stream heights and associated shortwave at 36 hours. In fact, it was likely teetering on the edge of rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast. This is why we see precipitation hanging back to the NW of the surface low now in response to more favorable jet dynamics. 0.50" liquid for the entire area this run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice 2-4" event for inland areas.. The way this winter has gone ill take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For the comment about LI I think he asked. Not inland can someone post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 honestly, not sure at the coast with looks like a long duration light to moderate precip, may not be dynamic enough for snow. It will be an issue along the coast if the NAM is correct. The airmass in place prior to the storm is not overly favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 .59 at Caldwell .54 at Morristown .45 at Andover .41 at Sussex .63 at NYC (some may be rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Exactly what I mean with all this light, non-dynamic crap that overspreads the area being rain or a mix. We really need a more consolidated, heavier area of precip for cold enough air to drain down for snow (near the coast). The air this is working with is just too stale and mild. Luckily, as others have said, this run seems to be having feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks plenty cold for Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is starting to look very much like the main low may end up being right along the NJ coast. I first talked about this possibility last Saturday when the Euro control run bombed this thing out just off shore of NJ and nailed the area with a foot of snow. The NAM is now starting to look very much like this. If this does consolidate into one low, the low may very well be just off shore of NJ and the end result would be quite a bit more snow, probably 6-12 inches. We are trending in that direction. I can pretty much guarantee the final solution won't look like this. The NAM has feedback issues with two lows b/t 39-50hrs then transfers the sfc low way easy at the next frame. More likely it will be a consolidated area of low pressure riding the thermal gradient offshore, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks plenty cold for Westchester. .65 qpf @ hpn all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 H5 looked very good this run,shell show her face the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 H5 looked very good this run,shell show her face the next few runs. True... trough is much sharper at 48 with a slightly negative tilt... yet the surface goes its own way. By the time the trough really sharpens up, the low is well out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks plenty cold for Westchester. Lol...maybe not with an 0z NAM Hour 42 temp at 2m of 36.7 @ White Plains....I don't believe it either....crappy antecedent airmass or not....February...offshore low....north wind...850's near negative 5C....surface should be around freezing....just perusing the text outputs...I'd say those 2m temp look about 5 degrees too warm...give or take a degree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The key driver for the precip that is being output by the NAM is the Location of the vorticity maximum just east of our area from about 00Z through 06Z on Sunday. Notice how we have a sharp gradient in wind speed from about 50-60 knots to the east and about 10-20 knots just to the west. That zone in between has a maximum of divergence and associated lift. There is nothing driven thermally and 250 mb isn't all that impressive in terms of us being in a favorable jet streak location. We are dependent upon that one lifting mechanism setting up shop for about 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junbug Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Although the surface did not respond totally, this run, the NAM was much more amplified with the northern stream heights and associated shortwave at 36 hours. In fact, it was likely teetering on the edge of rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast. This is why we see precipitation hanging back to the NW of the surface low now in response to more favorable jet dynamics. 0.50" liquid for the entire area this run. http://www.meteo.psu.../WRF_0z/f36.gif Another problem is the strength of the precip shield to the SE that is OTS. It just hogs all the energy and does not allow a strong low to form. This winter... widespread 2-4" brings happy people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NYC metro is mainly liquidNAM 0Z run until you get west of the parkway and north of 78 in NJ UPtons low 40's looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No to do an exact comparison at all, but, remember December 26, 2010 when ALL the models were keeping the low consolidated WAY off shore due to some sort of feedback, then the low rode right up the coast, but the models did not pick up on it until 36 hours out. This looks awfully familiar to me. Not saying it will happen, but my goodness, could this be a feedback issue again like that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No to do an exact comparison at all, but, remember December 26, 2010 when ALL the models were keeping the low consolidated WAY off shore due to some sort of feedback, then the low rode right up the coast, but the models did not pick up on it until 36 hours out. This looks awfully familiar to me. Not saying it will happen, but my goodness, could this be a feedback issue again like that one? Even when the models were east with that one, I'm pretty sure they didn't have the double lows as they do now. December 19, 2010 I think had an issue with two lows and ended up staying OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 True. Good point. Even when the models were east with that one, I'm pretty sure they didn't have the double lows as they do now. December 19, 2010 I think had an issue with two lows and ended up staying OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The good news if the NAM is correct is that it is showing good omega at about 700 mb which seems to coincide with where the best snow growth region would be... Soundings are showing the -10 to -12 range at about that 700 mb level.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I wouldn't be worried too much about surface low placement with this set up right now. I'd be banking on deformation type snow at this stage of the game... If you can get the lower levels more involved, that would be a bonus as you'd be able to generate some precip due to thermal advections, but I don't think the synoptic set up is conducive to a low pressure center close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 But Upton said it will be in the low 40s. I don't know...I've been living in this area 41 years...unless the sun comes out Saturday afternoon...I find it hard to believe temperatures can reach 40 F in NYC...I would think 35 F would probably be the max... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I wonder why this output shows snow where people here say its all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Actual temperature profiles show a warm layer from the surface to 950 mb. These maps are tricky sometimes as they can be way off. I wonder why this output shows snow where people here say its all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Actual temperature profiles show a warm layer from the surface to 950 mb. These maps are tricky sometimes as they can be way off. By 10 degrees? Pretty useless then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I don't know...I've been living in this area 41 years...unless the sun comes out Saturday afternoon...I find it hard to believe temperatures can reach 40 F in NYC...I would think 35 F would probably be the max... With 850s forecasted at about -2C, this actually supports a full sun max of about 50-52. On a fully cloudy day, subtract about 10 from that.. Big question mark is when does the precip start. If nothing significant falls, I see 40 as being an attainable temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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