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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Its def east and sloppy looking

That damn southern stream feature again... if not for that blowup and low over the Gulf Stream, a nicer reflection would exist along the coast. This southern feature is stealing the strength that the coastal feature would have. It either needs to weaken or the northern stream has to dive in faster and stronger. It won't work if the southern stream carries the storm out before the northern stream can catch it. We need it to be slower and the southern stream weaker.

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Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback.

The 12z GFS sure did and was doing some whacky things spitting out 1-2" qpf bombs right over the center of the low. Something isnt right.

Regardless, I sort of like a Euro / 18z GFS blend giving the tri state area a general 1-3" from the initial band that sets up before the coastal low takes for and rocks the Cape

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Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback.

Perhaps it does, but the CMC, UKMET, ECMWF, 18z RGEM and now the 18z GFS reflect the problem with the low pressure developing well offshore, not closer to the coast like the NAM does. Looking back at last winter, I was reminded with the 1/12 storm and how the global models were consistently east while the short range NAM was further west, but the NAM ended up closer to reality. That's not to say that the storm developing further east is not an issue because it clearly is, but with the way the models are handling this one, we still have another 24 hours to hope that the low follows a NAM-like scenario and doesn't miss us mostly to the east.

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Either this is just a temporary SE shift, or the 15z SREF run was a western outlier... the latest run takes everything back east, NYC barely gets above 0.1" QPF for the whole storm. It rather seems that it's going towards the model consensus; if the NAM sldo goes back east, it's going to be hard to get a west trend to start again with a model consensus for the storm to track well to our east.

post-1753-0-51021000-1328838729.gif

?// still looks like .25-.50?

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I think the contour near NYC is a 0.25 contour?

Either this is just a temporary SE shift, or the 15z SREF run was a western outlier... the latest run takes everything back east, NYC barely gets above 0.1" QPF for the whole storm. It rather seems that it's going towards the model consensus; if the NAM sldo goes back east, it's going to be hard to get a west trend to start again with a model consensus for the storm to track well to our east.

post-1753-0-51021000-1328838729.gif

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