Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hr 48 .50 for everyone It's more like .25, and it went a little bit drier than its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Only minor changes aloft this run. But at the surface it now more closely resembles the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Its def east and sloppy looking That damn southern stream feature again... if not for that blowup and low over the Gulf Stream, a nicer reflection would exist along the coast. This southern feature is stealing the strength that the coastal feature would have. It either needs to weaken or the northern stream has to dive in faster and stronger. It won't work if the southern stream carries the storm out before the northern stream can catch it. We need it to be slower and the southern stream weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM is out on it's own....GFS more like Euro-never a good sign for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18Z GFS Precip Total 54 hours http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsp24054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback. The 12z GFS sure did and was doing some whacky things spitting out 1-2" qpf bombs right over the center of the low. Something isnt right. Regardless, I sort of like a Euro / 18z GFS blend giving the tri state area a general 1-3" from the initial band that sets up before the coastal low takes for and rocks the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback. Perhaps it does, but the CMC, UKMET, ECMWF, 18z RGEM and now the 18z GFS reflect the problem with the low pressure developing well offshore, not closer to the coast like the NAM does. Looking back at last winter, I was reminded with the 1/12 storm and how the global models were consistently east while the short range NAM was further west, but the NAM ended up closer to reality. That's not to say that the storm developing further east is not an issue because it clearly is, but with the way the models are handling this one, we still have another 24 hours to hope that the low follows a NAM-like scenario and doesn't miss us mostly to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Those individual srefs are pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 15z SREF snowfall plumes for Northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 15z SREF snowfall plumes for Northern NJ cool graph, do you have the link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Some mets are saying this run has convective feedback. Regardless, HPC is on board with a 40% probability of 4" for NYC and Long Island. My excitement is building, cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 cool graph, do you have the link to that? Enjoy http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/eplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Enjoy http://www.spc.noaa....r/sref/eplumes/ thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Either this is just a temporary SE shift, or the 15z SREF run was a western outlier... the latest run takes everything a little east, NYC barely gets above 0.25" QPF instead of nearly 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Either this is just a temporary SE shift, or the 15z SREF run was a western outlier... the latest run takes everything back east, NYC barely gets above 0.1" QPF for the whole storm. It rather seems that it's going towards the model consensus; if the NAM sldo goes back east, it's going to be hard to get a west trend to start again with a model consensus for the storm to track well to our east. ?// still looks like .25-.50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the contour near NYC is a 0.25 contour? Either this is just a temporary SE shift, or the 15z SREF run was a western outlier... the latest run takes everything back east, NYC barely gets above 0.1" QPF for the whole storm. It rather seems that it's going towards the model consensus; if the NAM sldo goes back east, it's going to be hard to get a west trend to start again with a model consensus for the storm to track well to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I know it was a 0.25" contour... I just fixed it, I accidentally read it wrong but when I edited it my webpage got frozen... sorry for the mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 00z NAM at 21 h at h5 looks about the same as the 18z NAM at 27 h. The northern stream looks to be digging a tad bit more on the 00z NAM than on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Liking the northern stream being stronger and the southern vort being weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 God knows what the nam is doing at hr 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 you can forget snow on Long Island with this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 God knows what the nam is doing at hr 36... Please explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Please explain Warm, rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Warm, rain not for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hour 36 looks like it wants to pop 4 lows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NYC gets into .50+ somehow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 3-6 inches of snow across northern NJ with .25-.60 precip across northern NJ. All snow, or almost all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Only level I see above freezing on noaas site is surface and that looks kinda bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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