tornadojay Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 definite lack of phasing with the GFS.. all northern stream action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 i don't think we'd want the PV further south, it would probably suppress it. But like KAner said, if we could get a northern stream s/w to break off and phase with the boatload of energy in the south we could be in business I think we want PV little bit further south over Hudson Bay, for a cold air source. I'm more concerned for a warmer solution, than suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Whats on the table for next weekend in the East is the potential for a Major East Coast Snowstorm . The details will be sorted in the coming days ,But great job to the guys on this blog who in the last 10 to 14 days that had this idea 1 st . Very good work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 12Z Euro brings the storm further North too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 A little snow in NYC on the Euro, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro is definitely cold late in the run. 850s are in the -16 to -20 C range... compared to what we've been used to so far this winter, that would be frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Thanks to the arctic air, the GFS has the storm OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Thanks to the arctic air, the GFS has the storm OTS. How would we keep it cold AND move it up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How would we keep it cold AND move it up the coast? More phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 More phasing Thanks. That's what we have to watch for. GFS doesn't always pick up phasing with east coast storms well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 don't know where to post this, but light snow for everyone next thursday on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 don't know where to post this, but light snow for everyone next thursday on the euro. GFS is also showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 don't know where to post this, but light snow for everyone next thursday on the euro. 0Z GGEM is shouwing more then light precip - go to hour 132 http://www.stanford....GLB.htm#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 0Z GGEM is shouwing more then light precip - go to hour 132 http://www.stanford....GLB.htm#picture Its hardly more than 0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 don't know where to post this, but light snow for everyone next thursday on the euro. I think that's another storm entirely, actually. I'll start up a thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 GGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 We still have phasing potential, during this period on the models. We just need cut-off low over Mexico to eject out faster, and the northern stream shortwave to dig more: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south. Yeah, I agree. We want the PV really positioned more SW over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The non-phased look the models are currently running with would only serve to suppress the energy ejecting from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south. Agree. Without a -NAO block, the PV is too far north, thus the short waves cannot get down to our latitude to deepen and produce snow. It's almost like an early spring type pattern. Lo and behold, as expected, the GFS/GEFS were too potent w/ their MJO wave depiction, and today's GFS based guidance as the wave rapidly weakening and spiraling towards the COD, as it hits the wall that is octant 1. As I had been posting, I thought our best shot at a snow event would be if the MJO were able to progress into phase 1, which tends to promote enhanced pcpn on the East Coast with a cold pattern. However, since phase 8 should be the end, it'll likely just be cold/dry for next week/weekend of the 12th. Maybe we'll get something, but things don't look that good for the next couple weeks. I think our only hope is getting some atlantic help; maybe we'll see a block form by late feb or march, but as of right now, I don't think feb will be much different than jan in terms of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Agree. Without a -NAO block, the PV is too far north, thus the short waves cannot get down to our latitude to deepen and produce snow. It's almost like an early spring type pattern. Lo and behold, as expected, the GFS/GEFS were too potent w/ their MJO wave depiction, and today's GFS based guidance as the wave rapidly weakening and spiraling towards the COD, as it hits the wall that is octant 1. As I had been posting, I thought our best shot at a snow event would be if the MJO were able to progress into phase 1, which tends to promote enhanced pcpn on the East Coast with a cold pattern. However, since phase 8 should be the end, it'll likely just be cold/dry for next week/weekend of the 12th. Maybe we'll get something, but things don't look that good for the next couple weeks. I think our only hope is getting some atlantic help; maybe we'll see a block form by late feb or march, but as of right now, I don't think feb will be much different than jan in terms of snow totals. The period is one to watch (BEFORE the end of Feb.) - multiiple mets have said so, and there is no reason to back of yet based on a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The period is one to watch (BEFORE the end of Feb.) - multiiple mets have said so, and there is no reason to back of yet based on a few runs. I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea. This is not good news Iso. Hopefully the long range fantasy gfs is right with developing a sustained block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea. Agreed, I have been saying in for the past week that the GFS was out to lunch with the strength of the MJO, looks dry with only brief cold shots for the 2nd half of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Some mets are saying the 2nd half of February is looking good . I think we will get more storm chances with the NAO going negative. im curious what is your reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 im curious what is your reasoning for this? Having a -NAO increases your chances of having east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Having a -NAO increases your chances of having east coast storms. No, he wants to know your basis for thinking that it will go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No, he wants to know your basis for thinking that it will go negative. The models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No, he wants to know your basis for thinking that it will go negative. Correct. Since this isnt a banter thread, i thought you had to support statements with that with reasoning....and wishing it doesnt make it so. Which model has been consistently showing a -NAO at the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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