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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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i don't think we'd want the PV further south, it would probably suppress it. But like KAner said, if we could get a northern stream s/w to break off and phase with the boatload of energy in the south we could be in business

I think we want PV little bit further south over Hudson Bay, for a cold air source. I'm more concerned for a warmer solution, than suppression.

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Whats on the table for next weekend in the East is the potential for a Major East Coast Snowstorm .

The details will be sorted in the coming days ,But great job to the guys on this blog who in the last 10 to 14 days that had this idea 1 st .

Very good work .

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The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south.

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The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south.

Yeah, I agree. We want the PV really positioned more SW over Hudson Bay.

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The problem I see with this storm is the PV again, its just too far north in the 150-180 hour range. The GFS model 500 heights around 150 hours looks alot like 1/22/87, but unlike 1987 we don't have the PV far enough to allow the trough to be sharp enough in the Gulf Coast region to allow a Gulf Coast development to be captured and come up the coast, the flow in that region will be too SW-NE and not SSW-NNE or even S-N if the PV doesnt come more south.

Agree. Without a -NAO block, the PV is too far north, thus the short waves cannot get down to our latitude to deepen and produce snow. It's almost like an early spring type pattern.

Lo and behold, as expected, the GFS/GEFS were too potent w/ their MJO wave depiction, and today's GFS based guidance as the wave rapidly weakening and spiraling towards the COD, as it hits the wall that is octant 1.

196ssn.jpg

As I had been posting, I thought our best shot at a snow event would be if the MJO were able to progress into phase 1, which tends to promote enhanced pcpn on the East Coast with a cold pattern. However, since phase 8 should be the end, it'll likely just be cold/dry for next week/weekend of the 12th. Maybe we'll get something, but things don't look that good for the next couple weeks. I think our only hope is getting some atlantic help; maybe we'll see a block form by late feb or march, but as of right now, I don't think feb will be much different than jan in terms of snow totals.

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Agree. Without a -NAO block, the PV is too far north, thus the short waves cannot get down to our latitude to deepen and produce snow. It's almost like an early spring type pattern.

Lo and behold, as expected, the GFS/GEFS were too potent w/ their MJO wave depiction, and today's GFS based guidance as the wave rapidly weakening and spiraling towards the COD, as it hits the wall that is octant 1.

196ssn.jpg

As I had been posting, I thought our best shot at a snow event would be if the MJO were able to progress into phase 1, which tends to promote enhanced pcpn on the East Coast with a cold pattern. However, since phase 8 should be the end, it'll likely just be cold/dry for next week/weekend of the 12th. Maybe we'll get something, but things don't look that good for the next couple weeks. I think our only hope is getting some atlantic help; maybe we'll see a block form by late feb or march, but as of right now, I don't think feb will be much different than jan in terms of snow totals.

The period is one to watch (BEFORE the end of Feb.) - multiiple mets have said so, and there is no reason to back of yet based on a few runs.

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The period is one to watch (BEFORE the end of Feb.) - multiiple mets have said so, and there is no reason to back of yet based on a few runs.

I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea.

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I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea.

This is not good news Iso.

Hopefully the long range fantasy gfs is right with developing a sustained block

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I had mentioned that the disparity between the ECMWF and GFS MJO forecast was disconcerting, and that we shouldn't get excited about anything b/c of it. Now it looks like (to me at least) that the GFS is caving to the Euro, killing off the MJO wave in phase 8, which significantly lessens our chances for seeing snow in the mid feb period. The models have never really shown a snow event for next weekend, not yet at least, and if they do, it will be difficult for me to buy into given we're not seeing much of a pattern change. The GFS provided false hope with possible progression into p1, then potentially 2-3, which would've gotten the US quite cold and stormy, but now it has essentially given up on that idea.

Agreed, I have been saying in for the past week that the GFS was out to lunch with the strength of the MJO, looks dry with only brief cold shots for the 2nd half of feb.

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No, he wants to know your basis for thinking that it will go negative.

Correct. Since this isnt a banter thread, i thought you had to support statements with that with reasoning....and wishing it doesnt make it so. Which model has been consistently showing a -NAO at the end of the month?

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