XtremeWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro's going to give us a d6 snowstorm it seems. The torch idea is losing steam. From the New England thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The Euro charts don't look too different than the GFS in the mid and upper levels, based on a composite overlay. It appears the differences are primarily at the surface where the GFS has a better pressure field and low level circulations, presumably leading to slightly greater QPF. I'm relieved to see the Euro basically resemble the GFS in terms of the more important parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Check Euro QPF im hearing .32 in NYC which is what its printed out last 2 runs SAT 06Z 11-FEB 2.8 -4.0 1012 75 97 0.01 545 535 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -4.9 1009 98 98 0.12 539 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 4.0 -7.3 1004 66 67 0.06 531 528 12 Z ECM Text output got NYC .19 Last night 00z ECM NYC .23 total QPF SAT 06Z 11-FEB 1.8 -4.4 1013 85 98 0.02 544 534 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -5.0 1009 96 100 0.10 540 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 2.4 -7.2 1005 78 99 0.10 532 528 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.9 -9.0 1005 67 44 0.01 523 519 Total .23 So todays 12 Z is slightly less QPF (verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 SAT 06Z 11-FEB 2.8 -4.0 1012 75 97 0.01 545 535 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -4.9 1009 98 98 0.12 539 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 4.0 -7.3 1004 66 67 0.06 531 528 12 Z ECM Text output got NYC .19 Last night 00z ECM NYC .23 total QPF SAT 06Z 11-FEB 1.8 -4.4 1013 85 98 0.02 544 534 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -5.0 1009 96 100 0.10 540 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 2.4 -7.2 1005 78 99 0.10 532 528 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.9 -9.0 1005 67 44 0.01 523 519 Total .23 So todays 12 Z is slightly less QPF (verbatim) Hey , Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF 0.5" QPF line over West-Central Long Island and running along the NJ Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF 0.5" QPF line over West-Central Long Island and running along the NJ Shore. Is that an improvement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 i'm going to love my 2-5" - My son will love it even more.. Hopefully this pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 looking at hr 27 the 18z NAM is looking very decent, i'm guessing it will be more impressive than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Im waiting till 0z tonight to see if we can get some consistency with this storm. The euro ensembles did look good as far as comparison to the gfs run so we'll see at 0z if it can amplify more and get it to really dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think this run is better aloft. It digs the northern stream a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18z nam has a colder temp profiles for ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think this run is better aloft. It digs the northern stream a bit more. and dampens out the southern vort a bit as well, which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Is that an improvement? A pretty significant improvement actually. The 0.5 inch QPF line on the 09Z SREFs was about 100-150 miles east of where it has the 0.5 inch QPF on the 15z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 18z nam looks like it held so that's good, it's so close to being a significant event. I believe more accurate data goes into the 0z runs so that'll give us a pretty fair idea on what to expect. I think 2-4" would be excellent given this winter and it seems very reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Upton already throwing out accumulations in their forecast. This is for me in Hartsdale: Friday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. West wind between 3 and 11 mph. Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 32. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 39. North wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers after noon. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Upton already throwing out accumulations in their forecast. This is for me in Hartsdale: Friday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. West wind between 3 and 11 mph. Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 32. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 39. North wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers after noon. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Lower Manhattan: Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then snow. Low around 34. North wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 39. North wind between 8 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't really trust these point and click forecasts but interestingly Mt holly is going with cooler temps for central NJ but a change back to rain in the afternoon. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Lower Manhattan: Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then snow. Low around 34. North wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 39. North wind between 8 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 15z SREF plumes are a 2-5" snowfall for much of Northern NJ -- some members nearer to 6"...others near 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Upton already throwing out accumulations in their forecast. This is for me in Hartsdale: Friday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. West wind between 3 and 11 mph. Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 32. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 39. North wind 5 to 8 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers after noon. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%. same here too although they've changed saturday into "rain/snow" forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't get the discontinuity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The % map was just made. The experimental is from just after 1 pm. I don't get the discontinuity here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The % map was just made. The experimental is from just after 1 pm. But I don't see anything that would radically change things within a two and one-half hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 18Z RGEM is still a minimal, at best, event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pretty sure no one is seeing low 40's on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hr 39 light snow over area....heavy preciep in eastern bc Hr 42 light snow continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Pretty sure no one is seeing low 40's on Saturday Just after midnight Friday, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hr 48 .25+ for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hr 48 .50 for everyone Is that the 18z GFS? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Its def east and sloppy looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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