jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Upton getting fairly bullish. They mention increasing confidence for an advisory snow for LI and CT, with the possibility of a significant snow. This could really be legit, not for something major/crippling, but maybe something notable/plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yes that is a snowstorm track Yep it is, maybe a lil more QPF would be nice lol. Let see European models now, *Cue Ant* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 this could potentially get better especially with the nam and gfs having convective feedback issues on that 2nd low idea. Very close to a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wouldn't it be nice to have a nice little surprise on a weekend? Then bitter cold for one day- and then a slight warm up - and possibly an interesting President's day weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 this could potentially get better especially with the nam and gfs having convective feedback issues on that 2nd low idea. Very close to a big hit Yea you and Ant have mentioned that idea, i think I will wait till tonight 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd go 2-4" for now; be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'd go 2-4" for now; be safe. Or just hold off on a prediction till after 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GGEM is the same as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GGEM is the same as 0z. A tad east of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I've seen this setup lots of times. Good setup for the boys in southern New England and parts of Long Island. I personally hope that it stays far enough east to avoid accumulations in NJ as I need to do alot of driving on Saturday. Just FYI, the pattern the last few years has been that when the UKIE is a miss OTS we end up getting hit pretty hard. I know the UKIE has been alot better this year but last year and the year before it was way too supressed. I like the fact that the 12z GFS ensemble mean is west of the op, again normally a good sign. This will suprise alot of folks. Bill Evans this morning was calling for anywhere between a coating and a few inches while just about everyone else is calling for little or no accumulation. Another tricky forecast, but aren't they all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Snow cover having a slight impact on today's temps. Currently mid/upper 30s across SE PA and C/S NJ while temps are at 40/lower 40s across NNJ. If we can get snow pack Saturday, temps w/ the arctic shot will be colder. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro runs coming out in a bit should be important in continuing this trend towards a bigger system for us. We need it to phase earlier so we can get it to wrap up closer to us. Were not quite there but its getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro brushes us.... .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 brushes who, you? it looks like its developing a broad low closer to the coast saturday morning. Euro brushes us.... .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 brushes who, you? it looks like its developing a broad low closer to the coast saturday morning. Correct, but it is still not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That was kinda disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It looked better initially, but the southern stream energy pushes this thing east. The models don't know which piece of energy to key in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 brushes who, you? it looks like its developing a broad low closer to the coast saturday morning. It look better initially...but never gets the low going. It kicks east at the last minute...also. 25+ for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It is the southern vort causing the issue. The northern stream actually looks better this run. That sourthern piece of energy starts robbing moisture and the storm ticks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It look better initially...but never gets the low going. It kicks east at the last minute...also. 25+ for long island That piece of energy will either be the buzzkill or the pop of the champagne cork. We need the flow to really amplify so that it can bend the flow north, and force the low development closer into the coast near the coastal boundary. Otherwise, a Euro solution of a Gulf Stream rider sounds more correct. We need the northern stream to really dive in and force a phase before it can escape in a flat flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It looks like everyone sees a few inches out of this. We need to see which features the models start focusing on in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Im not buying this southern stream robbing the moisture that some of you are spewing out. This is still better than it looked a day or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Check Euro QPF im hearing .32 in NYC which is what its printed out last 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Models might not have this thing figured out until tomorrow, so it could really be down to the wire and a potential surprise storm like Jan 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Im not buying this southern stream robbing the moisture that some of you are spewing out. This is still better than it looked a day or so ago. I see it trending closer to the coast also since the flow in general seems to be amplifying more throughout the models. It would be easier to dismiss if the upper air flow wasn't buckling further. I think there's a chance that the southern vort here shears out and escapes east, but models have done that in the past with coastal lows only to "catch on" at the last minute. GFS ens at 12z are encouraging, would like to see the Euro ens later today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 what's the Euro look like in the longer range past this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 what's the Euro look like in the longer range past this storm? another light event tues - wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It has another inch or so on Tuesday night. what's the Euro look like in the longer range past this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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