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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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I've seen this setup lots of times. Good setup for the boys in southern New England and parts of Long Island. I personally hope that it stays far enough east to avoid accumulations in NJ as I need to do alot of driving on Saturday. Just FYI, the pattern the last few years has been that when the UKIE is a miss OTS we end up getting hit pretty hard. I know the UKIE has been alot better this year but last year and the year before it was way too supressed. I like the fact that the 12z GFS ensemble mean is west of the op, again normally a good sign. This will suprise alot of folks. Bill Evans this morning was calling for anywhere between a coating and a few inches while just about everyone else is calling for little or no accumulation. Another tricky forecast, but aren't they all?

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It look better initially...but never gets the low going. It kicks east at the last minute...also. 25+ for long island

That piece of energy will either be the buzzkill or the pop of the champagne cork. We need the flow to really amplify so that it can bend the flow north, and force the low development closer into the coast near the coastal boundary. Otherwise, a Euro solution of a Gulf Stream rider sounds more correct. We need the northern stream to really dive in and force a phase before it can escape in a flat flow.

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Im not buying this southern stream robbing the moisture that some of you are spewing out. This is still better than it looked a day or so ago.

I see it trending closer to the coast also since the flow in general seems to be amplifying more throughout the models. It would be easier to dismiss if the upper air flow wasn't buckling further. I think there's a chance that the southern vort here shears out and escapes east, but models have done that in the past with coastal lows only to "catch on" at the last minute. GFS ens at 12z are encouraging, would like to see the Euro ens later today too.

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