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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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So , let me get this straight , is this a Rain maker for Long Island ? Come on humor me .

Have you been reading the posts? This will most likely start out as rain and change to snow, the temperature profiles are way too warm for this storm to begin as all snow. Looking at the temperature profiles for the 12z nam at hr 45 when the precip begins the surface is above freezing (36), all the way up too 950 mb. At hour 48 the surface temperature warms slightly to 37, and is still above freezing to 950mb the precip will be rain. From hours 48 through 51, is where the precip is changing to a mix of rain/snow, and eventually to all snow as the column starts to cool as the heavier precip starts to fall, and the wind gradually changes to a more northerly direction, as the storm is to the NE of our location.

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So close to a big snowstorm

f54.gif

The low still looks fairly sheared out but definitely a nicer development closer into the coast. Hopefully this feature off to the SE of the low developing near the Delmarva keeps weakening, and the amplified heights/faster phase can cause a stronger coastal reflection. As it is, a nice lgt-mod snowfall for most, depending on BL temps which might still be questionable for the immediate coast (haven't checked soundings).

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I do wish the storm were a bit more consolidated off the coast per the GFS ... low kind of gets stretched to the east. Not buying that as of yet - also wish the upper level feature had a bit more time to catch up... would definitely provide some pop to the coastal low... but that's also not out of the question as we move forward.

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the GFS appears to be suffering from feedback issues with where its placing its emphasis on the low center. Do not look to much into the QPF right now.

So is the NAM to some extent. I don't think that the exact surface low location will matter as

much with this storm. The heaviest precip will be along the coastal trough axis. The surface

temperatures may mostly support colder surface accumulations.

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Here is a simple answer to all the above BL people - at my other home on Colts neck NJ , surface temps start out at 38 degrees at noon yesterday .

by the time .10 of an inch of liquid swung thru - WITH ZERO DYNAMICS . surface temps cooled to 32 - and an inch plus of snow had fallen why ?

because there was minus 3 air at 5k feet and the winds were NE - very easily cooling to column

SAT system deepens 20 MB in 12 hrs from delmara to gulf of Maine as per 12z NAM

GFS - PROB TOO FAR EAST - but that that models error in this range

Your 850`s are sagging thru AC and prob thru East End of LI

if you live on Cape or Montauk - maybe -

if you are in NYC - Nassau county and north shore suffolk county and CT , PLS enjoy this . IT WILL BE YOUR BIGGEST SNOW OF THIS WINTER . ( OCT not inc )

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The 12z GFS run lies outside the ensemble spread of its 0z and 6z runs both in terms of QPF and more importantly height field. To me that strongly suggests these recent trends are real. I will be curious to see how the 12z operational run compares to its own ensembles.

But when sequential runs deviate to a larger degree than any two individual ensemble members, it somewhat calls into question the viability of ensemble modeling. We should expect large inter-model shifts when the ensemble spread is large, but that is not what we're seeing here.

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So is the NAM to some extent. I don't think that the exact surface low location will matter as

much with this storm. The heaviest precip will be along the coastal trough axis. The surface

temperatures may mostly support colder surface accumulations.

Looks to me like the common error the GFS and NAM can have in this range where they place too much emphasis on a random blob of convection that occurs over the Gulf Stream, which robs the low near the coast. That usually corrects over time to a better reflection near shore. We just need to continue the trend of faster, deeper amplification and quicker phasing. I think a deep enough low can overcome most surface BL problems.

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I do wish the storm were a bit more consolidated off the coast per the GFS ... low kind of gets stretched to the east. Not buying that as of yet - also wish the upper level feature had a bit more time to catch up... would definitely provide some pop to the coastal low... but that's also not out of the question as we move forward.

True. But you also have to take into consideration that 36-48 hrs ago, the models were showing that southern stream as a sheared out, extremely weak shortwave.

It's a solid trend.

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Regardless of what happens, there's a very good chance of this being the biggest snowfall of the season, including October's snow, so it's not saying much when 3" equals your biggest storm of the winter. However, we may get more snow in one storm than all of our snowfalls since October combined, which also isn't saying too much lol.

Really just goes to show how bad this winter has been.

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It`s goin to snow ....... pls stop , my head is hurting . Some of you don`t use common sense . You

read models 48 hrs out - and dont make corrections based on basic MET .

ITS GOIN TO SNOW .

I was simply stating what the 12Z nam text soundings showed I didn't make a forecast, because making a forecast 48 hrs from the event is ridiculous. Looking at the text soundings for the gfs they are cooler than the nam, and will be most likely be all snow.

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I was simply stating what the 12Z nam text soundings showed I didn't make a forecast, because making a forecast 48 hrs from the event is ridiculous. Looking at the text soundings for the gfs they are cooler than the nam, and will be most likely be all snow.

Wasn`t aimed you , No ill intent meant . Hard enough figuring max position and strengthening in my mind .

So BL stuff making me go blind . so apologizes

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