Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Eastern mass special for our sne friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So close to a big snowstorm If the trends are real I would not write this off yet as possibly being in the moderate (significant) snow storm range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So , let me get this straight , is this a Rain maker for Long Island ? Come on humor me . Have you been reading the posts? This will most likely start out as rain and change to snow, the temperature profiles are way too warm for this storm to begin as all snow. Looking at the temperature profiles for the 12z nam at hr 45 when the precip begins the surface is above freezing (36), all the way up too 950 mb. At hour 48 the surface temperature warms slightly to 37, and is still above freezing to 950mb the precip will be rain. From hours 48 through 51, is where the precip is changing to a mix of rain/snow, and eventually to all snow as the column starts to cool as the heavier precip starts to fall, and the wind gradually changes to a more northerly direction, as the storm is to the NE of our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So close to a big snowstorm The low still looks fairly sheared out but definitely a nicer development closer into the coast. Hopefully this feature off to the SE of the low developing near the Delmarva keeps weakening, and the amplified heights/faster phase can cause a stronger coastal reflection. As it is, a nice lgt-mod snowfall for most, depending on BL temps which might still be questionable for the immediate coast (haven't checked soundings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So close to a big snowstorm I wouldn't look at QPF right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's clearly trending more phased, more amplified and I don't think it's done trending yet. There may even be some convective feedback on the gfs that prevents us from getting more precipitation. Could this be a major surprise storm for the public yet again, it's less than 2 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So close to a big snowstorm More like moderate. The height fields and 500 mb do not support a "big" snowstorm, or in which means a Kocin event, but no one expects that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Some Mets in the SNE thread are saying there were feedback issues on this run. The GFS developed 2 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the GFS appears to be suffering from feedback issues with where its placing its emphasis on the low center. Do not look to much into the QPF right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If we score more than a few inches in this event, KUDOS will go to John... (Earthlight) - This guy (and maybe a few other people as well) have been calling out this weekend, for several weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I do wish the storm were a bit more consolidated off the coast per the GFS ... low kind of gets stretched to the east. Not buying that as of yet - also wish the upper level feature had a bit more time to catch up... would definitely provide some pop to the coastal low... but that's also not out of the question as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the GFS appears to be suffering from feedback issues with where its placing its emphasis on the low center. Do not look to much into the QPF right now. So is the NAM to some extent. I don't think that the exact surface low location will matter as much with this storm. The heaviest precip will be along the coastal trough axis. The surface temperatures may mostly support colder surface accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2011-2012 winter season..... The year the models went helen keller and couldnt find nothing till it was within their reach lol.... This storm is starting to look alot better for us in metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Here is a simple answer to all the above BL people - at my other home on Colts neck NJ , surface temps start out at 38 degrees at noon yesterday . by the time .10 of an inch of liquid swung thru - WITH ZERO DYNAMICS . surface temps cooled to 32 - and an inch plus of snow had fallen why ? because there was minus 3 air at 5k feet and the winds were NE - very easily cooling to column SAT system deepens 20 MB in 12 hrs from delmara to gulf of Maine as per 12z NAM GFS - PROB TOO FAR EAST - but that that models error in this range Your 850`s are sagging thru AC and prob thru East End of LI if you live on Cape or Montauk - maybe - if you are in NYC - Nassau county and north shore suffolk county and CT , PLS enjoy this . IT WILL BE YOUR BIGGEST SNOW OF THIS WINTER . ( OCT not inc ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 12z GFS run lies outside the ensemble spread of its 0z and 6z runs both in terms of QPF and more importantly height field. To me that strongly suggests these recent trends are real. I will be curious to see how the 12z operational run compares to its own ensembles. But when sequential runs deviate to a larger degree than any two individual ensemble members, it somewhat calls into question the viability of ensemble modeling. We should expect large inter-model shifts when the ensemble spread is large, but that is not what we're seeing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 So is the NAM to some extent. I don't think that the exact surface low location will matter as much with this storm. The heaviest precip will be along the coastal trough axis. The surface temperatures may mostly support colder surface accumulations. Looks to me like the common error the GFS and NAM can have in this range where they place too much emphasis on a random blob of convection that occurs over the Gulf Stream, which robs the low near the coast. That usually corrects over time to a better reflection near shore. We just need to continue the trend of faster, deeper amplification and quicker phasing. I think a deep enough low can overcome most surface BL problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I do wish the storm were a bit more consolidated off the coast per the GFS ... low kind of gets stretched to the east. Not buying that as of yet - also wish the upper level feature had a bit more time to catch up... would definitely provide some pop to the coastal low... but that's also not out of the question as we move forward. True. But you also have to take into consideration that 36-48 hrs ago, the models were showing that southern stream as a sheared out, extremely weak shortwave. It's a solid trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Regardless of what happens, there's a very good chance of this being the biggest snowfall of the season, including October's snow, so it's not saying much when 3" equals your biggest storm of the winter. However, we may get more snow in one storm than all of our snowfalls since October combined, which also isn't saying too much lol. Really just goes to show how bad this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Seriously- if we end up w/ a 4-6" event and possibly one more snow event this year the reality of the situation is that as others have mentioned many times over the past few weeks for those of us who grew up in the 80's - that would equate to a pretty decent winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It`s goin to snow ....... pls stop , my head is hurting . Some of you don`t use common sense . You read models 48 hrs out - and dont make corrections based on basic MET . ITS GOIN TO SNOW . I was simply stating what the 12Z nam text soundings showed I didn't make a forecast, because making a forecast 48 hrs from the event is ridiculous. Looking at the text soundings for the gfs they are cooler than the nam, and will be most likely be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Didn't the March 09 storm sort of come about this way? I know it was colder but if I recall the models really didn't sniff out the storm until about 48 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 if the position of the PV was further south and west, it probably could help.. We need the height fields to bend back well north of us to try to slow the progression down and give it a chance to potentially close off (or at least partially close off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I was simply stating what the 12Z nam text soundings showed I didn't make a forecast, because making a forecast 48 hrs from the event is ridiculous. Looking at the text soundings for the gfs they are cooler than the nam, and will be most likely be all snow. Wasn`t aimed you , No ill intent meant . Hard enough figuring max position and strengthening in my mind . So BL stuff making me go blind . so apologizes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ukie is a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ukie is a miss GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GEFS is slightly west than the op. It bombs out in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GEFS is slightly west than the op. It bombs out in SNE. Good sign to see ensembles west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ensemble mean looks beautiful lol. .50QPF grazing NYC, N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yes that is a snowstorm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yes, ensemble mean is more juicy for all of our area. Looks very similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.