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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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I`ve watched people for years write rain on Long Island 100 time in past several year . Being a resident of Laurell Hollow for years ,

i will tell you the models love to warm the area only to get colder as the event gets closer I CANT SPEAK TO SOUTH SHORE SUFFOLK COUNTY ,.It is not as common as you would think that it rains during storms like this from places Port Washington out thru Upton and further east on north shore . They do better time and time again .

The stale gets mixed very quickly becasue this storm is deepens ther 850` s are plenty cold , guys this gets to the surface , and you will see the models

catch on to this - its 48 out ( too far out to look at BL - with system deepening ) , I think you will see this get better in next 24 hrs

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storms deepening as it heading Northeast , Its not a flat open wave .

but sure can it rain for a while East end - 75 ish per of island is mainly snow .

Models always like to warm the coastal plain ver batuim .

in sits like this Storm off to your south and east , 850 `s cold enough

storm deepening

it doesnt just snow on long island they fare better in storms liek this .

This is another reason we would like the phase to be sooner. The northern stream and the real cold is to our west. The air we have overhead and the storm comes from the southern stream. It congeals a lot better for SNE (and they even have rain for a while up to PVD, TAN, PYM until the storm really gets developed), but verbatim the storm doesn't develop in time for us to really work down cold air. The snow we get will be quite sloppy, and we're lucky it starts at night. Verbatim, looking at temps, the only area that really has to worry about little or no snow is east of the William Floyd Pkwy in Suffolk. Nassau is around 34 for much of the storm, which is cold enough for snow, after some light rain/mix to start. There would be a good 3-6" swath here, maybe for western Suffolk and NYC where cold enough air exists with enough liquid. The real heavy amounts would be for I-90 east of ORH. But this still has some time to trend stronger and phase earlier. Then more snow would be likely for the coast.

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I`ve watched people for years write rain on Long Island 100 time in past several year . Being a resident of Laurell Hollow for years ,

i will tell you the models love to warm the area only to get colder as the event gets closer I CANT SPEAK TO SOUTH SHORE SUFFOLK COUNTY ,.It is not as common as you would think that it rains during storms like this from places Port Washington out thru Upton and further east on north shore . They do better time and time again .

The stale gets mixed very quickly becasue this storm is deepens ther 850` s are plenty cold , guys this gets to the surface , and you will see the models

catch on to this - its 48 out ( too far out to look at BL - with system deepening ) , I think you will see this get better in next 24 hrs

NAM @ 48 hrs is like the GFS @ 120.. If anything I expect this to continue its westward progression.

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The changes on the guidance have been pretty impressive in regards to the height field prior to the southern stream getting phased into the system. Most of the guidance is better organized and stronger with the shortwave digging southward over Wisconsin and Iowa. From what I can see from last nights suite-- they were much flatter and farther east which in turn suppressed the height field on the East Coast.

It will be interesting to see if these trends continue. Once the phase occurs and cyclogenesis is initiated the surface low will really go to town given the impressive phasing dynamics and height falls. This happens around 54 hours on the NAM and some more significant precipitation begins to develop near Boston at that time. Should the height field continue to trend more amplified--owing to the organization and amplitude of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave-- we could see a jump to more significant precipitation over our area.

But as it is, I'm sure most here will take it.

http://www.meteo.psu...4_12z/rad42.gif

I would definitely take the 12z NAM. I think it's a pretty snowy scenario all things considered. But I also could see how this could turn into a lot more. Without looking at the historical charts, something about this reminds me of the Feb 2006 storm for some reason. I wonder if the southern stream s/w coming in stronger and the northern stream digging further sw are related... fujiware-esque.

A major problem I see is that the mid-level lows don't really get going until the storm is in the Gulf of Maine. That really limits upward snow potential. Like you say, we really need a piece of the PV s/w to dig further south and/or west. That would give the storm room and a head start to develop. If this thing develops a mid-level low to our west or south, we could be looking at a quick hitting major snowstorm. But I still think the major snows stay in the Maritimes with coastal Mass getting a decent hit. The 12z NAM is similar to a few 06z GFS ensemble members, so I would caution to declare this a significant trend instead of an outlier run on the end of the guidance spread. At least until more confirmation arrives.

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I would definitely take the 12z NAM. I think it's a pretty snowy scenario all things considered. But I also could see how this could turn into a lot more. Without looking at the historical charts, something about this reminds me of the Feb 2006 storm for some reason. I wonder if the southern stream s/w coming in stronger and the northern stream digging further sw are related... fujiware-esque.

A major problem I see is that the mid-level lows don't really get going until the storm is in the Gulf of Maine. That really limits upward snow potential. Like you say, we really need a piece of the PV s/w to dig further south and/or west. That would give the storm room and a head start to develop. If this thing develops a mid-level low to our west or south, we could be looking at a quick hitting major snowstorm. But I still think the major snows stay in the Maritimes with coastal Mass getting a decent hit. The 12z NAM is similar to a few 06z GFS ensemble members, so I would caution to declare this a significant trend instead of an outlier run on the end of the guidance spread. At least until more confirmation arrives.

The NAM was interesting in the way it actually developed the 925hPa low just off the coast. The boundary layer would probably cool pretty fast if it were correct. I agree also with your premise that if we see any further amplification of the major features at play, we could get surface low development farther south and faster.

That being said, the northern stream energy is pretty disorganized for my liking. The PV is also positioned pretty far East in Canada -- not in a typically favorable position for our area. If we can get something along the lines of the NAM's .4 to .6" liquid as the system passes by, that would be a score.

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The problem to me looks like there is just not enough cold air. The NAM is cold at 850 and thicknesses are low but surface temps in the 34-36 range even at night after a near 50 degree day tomorrow are troubling. Seems like a situation where we'll need some decent evaporational cooling or heavy enough snowfall rates to bring down the cold air aloft.

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What caused that to change so rapidly like that? I feel lost right now. lol.

The amplitude and orientation of both pieces of energy is very important -- so as the model becomes stronger or more well-defined with both of those features, the height field to the east will adjust accordingly. For our area that height field ornamentation is pretty huge, though, as it pretty much sets the stage for where the southern stream shortwave will swing.

To me the wild card now is, can the northern stream dig a little farther south and a little faster? If it does, the southern stream shortwave will be captured earlier, tipping off rapid surface low deepening a bit earlier, allowing for the development of more notable precipitation in our area.

If not, we'll have to live with probably less than .5" liquid...which is essentially a modern day blizzard at this point.

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