supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks to at least drop .4-.6 QPF across most of the region. Large improvement. Very nice improvements. A little shift in the vorts for the better and this could be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nice NEG tilted trough . Sweet look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't have access to images, how we looking on temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks better. this is trending every run closer and closer to the coast interesting http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06048.gif All snow too - 2m temps a degree or 2 above freezing but will drop once the heavier precip begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh boy....I'm seeing the 12/30/00 analogs already getting thrown around, I knew that was coming before I even saw someone say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't have access to images, how we looking on temps? Temps fine . start mid 30`s and then fall ..Its Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks to at least drop .4-.6 QPF across most of the region. Large improvement. That's a major snowstorm in a year like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hi friends. The NAM looks good for a light to moderate snow given this winters standards as the southern stream energy swings north and east along the tightened mid level height gradient created as the PV-associated northern stream energy drops south. Trend is more amplified with height field on the east coast. If this continues you will begin to see faster surface low development near better pva as earlier phasing occurs. Unfortunately not a strong signal synoptically given height field at 42 hr. Best we can do is speed up the phase and get some precip in from the coast. Surface low will go crazy in north atlantic if anybody is interested..with pv phase. Upper air pattern suggests we could pull some real big time cold air into new england days 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow this thing goes nuclear just northeast of us. Hopefully we can get it to bomb a bit further south in future runs. Boston looks to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Someone the other day said a possible negative tilt to the structure of the trough would yield dividends, but most had (at the time) indicated that such a possibility was probably not going to come to fruitition.. Perhaps that is on the table again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow this thing goes nuclear just northeast of us. Hopefully we can get it to bomb a bit further south in future runs. Boston looks to get hammered. Don't necessarily need a deep low, 1/28/04 showed us that, a weak low that formed only off the Delmarva region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow this thing goes nuclear just northeast of us. Hopefully we can get it to bomb a bit further south in future runs. Boston looks to get hammered. have to remember the trending might not be over here still 42 - 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Don't necessarily need a deep low, 1/28/04 showed us that, a weak low that formed only off the Delmarva region. Agree, however if we want a decent event we need the phase to happen a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hi friends. The NAM looks good for a light to moderate snow given this winters standards as the southern stream energy swings north and east along the tightened mid level height gradient created as the PV-associated northern stream energy drops south. Trend is more amplified with height field on the east coast. If this continues you will begin to see faster surface low development near better pva as earlier phasing occurs. Unfortunately not a strong signal synoptically given height field at 42 hr. Best we can do is speed up the phase and get some precip in from the coast. Surface low will go crazy in north atlantic if anybody is interested..with pv phase. Upper air pattern suggests we could pull some real big time cold air into new england days 3-4. Good post John, I knew this threat would get you posting. Say hello to MJO phase 8, many of us will have our second snow event Saturday, and I think a third could be on the table late next week/weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 09z old ETA also came quite a bit west from its 03Z and 21Z run yesterday, that helps the NAM's cause somewhat but I'd like to see the RGEM come west at 12Z before I buy into the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks very close to a phase in a good location for at least eastern areas. The low really starts to go to town east of NJ and LI, in time to nail SNE. If we can get it to bomb just a little sooner, like off the Delmarva instead of NJ, areas down to NJ get in on some nice action. Looks verbatim like 3-6" of wet, sloppy snow around NYC, and 6"+ well east into Suffolk. Couple of inches possible to the Delaware River. Waters are nice and warm and untouched by many bombing Nor'easters this year, and that combined with a nasty cold airmass behind could cause a nice event for someone if the upper air can cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 HR 48 - 1008 MB east of AC HR 60 - 988 MB east of Bar Harbor ME . Nice developement . - 6 hrs earlier as it is .50 . 75 - central nassau county east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh boy....I'm seeing the 12/30/00 analogs already getting thrown around, I knew that was coming before I even saw someone say it. Don't throw around that alalog to the sne crowd.....you'll get tarred & featherd! (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 HR 48 - 1008 MB east of AC HR 60 - 988 MB east of Bar Harbor ME . Nice developement . - 6 hrs earlier as it is .50 . 75 - central nassau county east . Long Island may cash in this time.... If this event comes any further west - a bonafide snowstorm is in the works.. 4-8" - Right now 2-5" seems likely for Queens on east.. no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like that the southern stream s/w has been getting a little sharper with increased vorticity on recent runs, esp on the American models. That tends to faciliate phasing with the northern stream PV complex, which also raises heights along the coast, promotes cyclogenesis, and could help deepen the low center a bit faster. Some of the GEFs from last night show this, resulting in a slightly closer tucked low track and a moderate hit for EMass and p0ssibly ELI. The trends are looking good from Boston and SE. However, unless the 500mb structure drastically changes, whatever develops will slide quickly northeastward. A light snow event looks increasingly likely however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Long Island may cash in this time.... If this event comes any further west - a bonafide snowstorm is in the works.. 4-8" - Right now 2-5" seems likely for Queens on east.. no? I think 6 would be max on LI as of now , temps starting out here take 75% of what NAM prints IMO CPK - nice 2- 4 as of now - just too early to throw that out , so forgive me .. Just nice to see NAM sharpen this thing up 2 days in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per the 12z nam, there is going to be alot of mixing and rain on Long Island with BL temps as warm as they are...and now, I am not talking about just the surface. Its above freezing from 950 mb down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 comparing 12z to 00z it looks like the 12z interacts with the southern energy more than 00z, as the northern stream on the 12z is much quicker. This will allow the trough to go slightly negative and get more dynamics into play with more vorticity advection which will enhance the lift (negative omega). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per the 12z nam, there is going to be alot of mixing and rain on Long Island with BL temps as warm as they are...and now, I am not talking about just the surface. Its above freezing from 950 mb down. Yeah, it looks like rain for the east end per soundings. Although I suppose it could be wet snow with >2C temps primarily confined to the very near surface and higher intensity precipitation. Nassua looks much better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 DRIBBLE ......Will snow on most of Long Island throught the event - 850 s plenty cold storm deepening , column easily cools The true arctic front is west of us as the storm arrives. The air overhead is stale, milder air. I think if the precip is heavier, it's all snow, but lighter stuff could be a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 I like that the southern stream s/w has been getting a little sharper with increased vorticity on recent runs, esp on the American models. That tends to faciliate phasing with the northern stream PV complex, which also raises heights along the coast, promotes cyclogenesis, and could help deepen the low center a bit faster. Some of the GEFs from last night show this, resulting in a slightly closer tucked low track and a moderate hit for EMass and p0ssibly ELI. The trends are looking good from Boston and SE. However, unless the 500mb structure drastically changes, whatever develops will slide quickly northeastward. A light snow event looks increasingly likely however. The changes on the guidance have been pretty impressive in regards to the height field prior to the southern stream getting phased into the system. Most of the guidance is better organized and stronger with the shortwave digging southward over Wisconsin and Iowa. From what I can see from last nights suite-- they were much flatter and farther east which in turn suppressed the height field on the East Coast. It will be interesting to see if these trends continue. Once the phase occurs and cyclogenesis is initiated the surface low will really go to town given the impressive phasing dynamics and height falls. This happens around 54 hours on the NAM and some more significant precipitation begins to develop near Boston at that time. Should the height field continue to trend more amplified--owing to the organization and amplitude of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave-- we could see a jump to more significant precipitation over our area. But as it is, I'm sure most here will take it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/rad42.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per the 12z nam, there is going to be alot of mixing and rain on Long Island with BL temps as warm as they are...and now, I am not talking about just the surface. Its above freezing from 950 mb down. IIRC, above freezing from 950 down is considerably warmer than it was progged to be with yesterday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 per the 12z nam, there is going to be alot of mixing and rain on Long Island with BL temps as warm as they are...and now, I am not talking about just the surface. Its above freezing from 950 mb down. yeah, even if the temperature and dewpoint wetbulb it would still be above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The true arctic front is west of us as the storm arrives. The air overhead is stale, milder air. I think if the precip is heavier, it's all snow, but lighter stuff could be a mix. storms deepening as it heading Northeast , Its not a flat open wave . but sure can it rain for a while East end - 75 ish per of island is mainly snow . Models always like to warm the coastal plain ver batuim . in sits like this Storm off to your south and east , 850 `s cold enough storm deepening it doesnt just snow on long island they fare better in storms liek this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 The true arctic front is west of us as the storm arrives. The air overhead is stale, milder air. I think if the precip is heavier, it's all snow, but lighter stuff could be a mix. You are correct...there is some very stale boundary layer air and the wind direction isn't favorable to start either. If the NAM verified, the precipitation would likely start as rain over Long Island and slowly change to snow with time. Mostly everybody would likely end up with similar amounts of 1-3/2-4 as the colder air to the west is situated where there is less precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.