MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Starts as rain verbatim. Yes. It is really close to the coast. Lets hope the other models follow the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam develops a coastal storm. Really nice run. The best precipitation is mostly offshore, but at least we get a little bit of snow as well... the trend at least from the last couple of runs on the NAM and GFS appears to have been towards a somewhat better storm potential, while the ECM/CMC backed down a bit and the UKMET, which is difficult to interpret beyond hour 72, also shows light snow. It's probably likely that the area does see snow with the cold front coming through, resulting in widespread snow showers in the region, but in the scenario where we get lucky and the storm is slightly stronger and closer to the coast, perhaps we could manage to squeeze out over an inch of snow in the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hour 69 of the 00Z NAM shows 474 dam thickness just east of James Bay. Can't remember the last time I saw thicknesses that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Starts as rain verbatim. Cold dropping 850s and precipitation would easily change it to snow, in fact it might be snowing, just not sticking obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The period today through Monday will likely be the most wintry 3-4 day period of the winter thus far. Many locations receiving 1" or more today across PA and NJ, Saturday should at minimum, produce accumulations similar to today, arctic shot Sat-Sun with overnight temps Sunday probably the coldest of the season, assuming -20c air makes it down to our neck of the woods. Overall, not a bad period of winter the next several days given the blowtorch we've seen the past 2 months. Furthermore, I'm not convinced the pattern for second half of feb is down the tubes either. Tropical forcing would argue for a resistance for warmth in the Northeast; I think we'll moderate temps by the middle of next week, but marginal cold will be present as short waves propagate across the CONUS. The next couple weeks don't look excellent but it doesn't look terrible either IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Through hour 48 the GFS looks like it's trying to form something bigger for this time frame... boundary layer temps will probably be an issue at some point with this run as there's not enough initial cold air, but it could be a step closer towards something more interesting regardless of whether it's a mix or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Out to 57 .10 of snow so far.....looks to start as snow from 95-west......low much closer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Out to hr 63. 25+ from phl-just east of nyc. Surface gets funky at hr 63....850's plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Good start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 .25+ for everyone except nw jersey and ct. Going to have to look at soundings to make sure its all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Out to hr 63. 25+ from phl-just east of nyc. Surface gets funky at hr 63....850's plenty cold Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sunday should have a high in the mid/upper 20s per 00z GFS 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 If the trends continue, we could be seeing a bonafide snowstorm this weekend. And what's crazy is this thing is only 2 1/2 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing. Whether the sun is out makes no difference in p-type. Maybe in April, but not in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing. Even today was suppose to be a mix/rain to start....only made it to 39 and never had rain....cloud cover help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Sunday should have a high in the mid/upper 20s per 00z GFS 850mb temps. Looks like NYC gets down to -18c at 850 around 03z Monday, with a NW/NNW wind. Probably bottom out in the 12-15 degree range if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Whether the sun is out makes no difference in p-type. Maybe in April, but not in February. I was talking about accumuation wise, and the Sun certainly makes a difference in that respect. Today's light-mod snow didn't start sticking to pavement until 6pm, even though my temp was 32 from 3pm onward. The heavier the snow, the less the sun matters. April snow can stick at 2pm if its coming down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ggem looks pretty nice,better then gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 stolen from NE thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ggem looks pretty nice,better then gfs. Actually they look pretty identical to me. About 8mm on gem and .25 contour GFS assuming the low end of the .25 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NYC .23 total QPF SAT 06Z 11-FEB 1.8 -4.4 1013 85 98 0.02 544 534 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -5.0 1009 96 100 0.10 540 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 2.4 -7.2 1005 78 99 0.10 532 528 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.9 -9.0 1005 67 44 0.01 523 519 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM is west... brings the 0.25-0.50 precip to E Suffolk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM is west... brings the 0.25-0.50 precip to E Suffolk... Actually E. Suffolk is clipped by the "blue"...which brings .5" to .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 oh yeah, you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 06Z RGEM at 54 hours less than enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 6z Nam is brings .10 qpf line well in to most of NJ 850's around -3 --2m temps a couple degrees above freezing this all at 54 hours these types of situations have to be watched closely for further intensification ... http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06054.gif Upton says increase in pops possible LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO INTERACTION OF ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. AFTER ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL/ GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...IT APPEARS THAT A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. I CAN FORESEE POPS INCREASING AS WE NEAR THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN LOCALES. HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO POSSIBLE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST NW OF SFC LOW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HOW FAST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TO WHAT EXTENT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADVISORY LEVELS SNOW ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT...BUT OVERALL FEEL ANY AMOUNTS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS NW ZONES...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE FCST DETAILS. THE ARCTIC FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW MAY RESULT IN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. COLD AIR TAKES TIME TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD...SO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. CHILLY SAT NIGHT. AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...TEMPS WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LACKING SUNDAY. A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGH/S IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD TREND COLDER IN TIME. AFTER A VERY COLD/BRISK NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...QUICK MODERATION IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AS THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, but luckily we rebound to near 50 by Tuesday and Wednesday Luckily? I hope it stays cold for a while. Euro was colder for the next storm, but drier according to the MA forum. banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 6z GEFS looks good hour 48 and 60 - considering the trend this winter for storms to verify more north and west then progged this far out this is something to watch considering it is developing well south of us and coming up the coast to meet the arctic cold and water temps are a few degrees above normal could more energy and moisture to this storm http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 NAM looks to drop .4-.6 QPF across most of the region. Large improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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