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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Nam develops a coastal storm. Really nice run.

The best precipitation is mostly offshore, but at least we get a little bit of snow as well... the trend at least from the last couple of runs on the NAM and GFS appears to have been towards a somewhat better storm potential, while the ECM/CMC backed down a bit and the UKMET, which is difficult to interpret beyond hour 72, also shows light snow. It's probably likely that the area does see snow with the cold front coming through, resulting in widespread snow showers in the region, but in the scenario where we get lucky and the storm is slightly stronger and closer to the coast, perhaps we could manage to squeeze out over an inch of snow in the best case scenario.

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The period today through Monday will likely be the most wintry 3-4 day period of the winter thus far. Many locations receiving 1" or more today across PA and NJ, Saturday should at minimum, produce accumulations similar to today, arctic shot Sat-Sun with overnight temps Sunday probably the coldest of the season, assuming -20c air makes it down to our neck of the woods. Overall, not a bad period of winter the next several days given the blowtorch we've seen the past 2 months. Furthermore, I'm not convinced the pattern for second half of feb is down the tubes either. Tropical forcing would argue for a resistance for warmth in the Northeast; I think we'll moderate temps by the middle of next week, but marginal cold will be present as short waves propagate across the CONUS. The next couple weeks don't look excellent but it doesn't look terrible either IMO.

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Through hour 48 the GFS looks like it's trying to form something bigger for this time frame... boundary layer temps will probably be an issue at some point with this run as there's not enough initial cold air, but it could be a step closer towards something more interesting regardless of whether it's a mix or snow.

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Out to hr 63. 25+ from phl-just east of nyc. Surface gets funky at hr 63....850's plenty cold

Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing.

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Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing.

Whether the sun is out makes no difference in p-type. Maybe in April, but not in February.

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Given that most of the pcpn probably falls in the morning hours, timing is certainly in our favor here. Surface looks marginal to start but if we can get sufficient vv's, we'll cool fairly easily down to freezing.

Even today was suppose to be a mix/rain to start....only made it to 39 and never had rain....cloud cover help

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Whether the sun is out makes no difference in p-type. Maybe in April, but not in February.

I was talking about accumuation wise, and the Sun certainly makes a difference in that respect. Today's light-mod snow didn't start sticking to pavement until 6pm, even though my temp was 32 from 3pm onward. The heavier the snow, the less the sun matters. April snow can stick at 2pm if its coming down hard enough.

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NAM is west... brings the 0.25-0.50 precip to E Suffolk...

Actually E. Suffolk is clipped by the "blue"...which brings .5" to .75"

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6z Nam is brings .10 qpf line well in to most of NJ 850's around -3 --2m temps a couple degrees above freezing this all at 54 hours these types of situations have to be watched closely for further intensification ...

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06054.gif

Upton says increase in pops possible

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO INTERACTION OF ARCTIC

FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.

AFTER ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALONG WITH OPERATIONAL/

GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...IT APPEARS THAT A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS

ON THE HORIZON WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING

FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. I CAN FORESEE POPS

INCREASING AS WE NEAR THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND EASTERN

LOCALES. HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO POSSIBLE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST NW OF

SFC LOW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE AREA.

AGAIN...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING

SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HOW

FAST LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TO WHAT EXTENT.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADVISORY LEVELS SNOW ACCUMS...ESPECIALLY FOR

LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SRN CT...BUT OVERALL FEEL ANY AMOUNTS

WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS NW ZONES...LOWER

HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ. HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE

FCST DETAILS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW MAY RESULT

IN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. COLD AIR TAKES TIME

TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD...SO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. CHILLY SAT

NIGHT.

AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...TEMPS

WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND WEAK

LIFT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LACKING SUNDAY.

A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH

HIGH/S IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD

TREND COLDER IN TIME.

AFTER A VERY COLD/BRISK NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE

SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...QUICK MODERATION IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AS

THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES. HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE

SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE

NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN BROAD

WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER

THE CENTRAL STATES.

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6z GEFS looks good hour 48 and 60 - considering the trend this winter for storms to verify more north and west then progged this far out this is something to watch considering it is developing well south of us and coming up the coast to meet the arctic cold and water temps are a few degrees above normal could more energy and moisture to this storm

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12048.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif

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