MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 first of all total precip is .10 or less and surface temps are abopve freezing = which equals no accumulation - I suggest when reading the models take the snow goggles off I SAID SNOW, nothing about accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I SAID SNOW, nothing about accumulations. ant this guys a troller and is obv busting balls,I wouldn't even answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I SAID SNOW, nothing about accumulations. with surface temps that warm, don't count on the city getting anything that even resembles snow, up my way, maybe a stray flake or two. Fully expect this to take the same route that just about every event so far this year has taken, and thats for it to fizzle out to nothing as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 ant this guys a troller and is obv busting balls,I wouldn't even answer. just telling it how it is no troll here - that run of the NAM shows very little in the way of snow just like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12Z GFS got much colder again on Sunday.. models keep waffling back and forth between moderately cold and downright frigid. It also has the peak coming during the daytime... 850's are close to -24C... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 just telling it how it is no troll here - that run of the NAM shows very little in the way of snow just like today Dude what are you talking about last nite 9 pm 0z NAM had the northern edge of todays precip to Colts Neck NJ todays 12z its into Danbury CT - 75 mile interpretation bust inside 12 hrs . NEITHER PLACE ACCUMULATES , but since when is the NAM the king of anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 just telling it how it is no troll here - that run of the NAM shows very little in the way of snow just like today Dude what are you talking about last nite 9 pm 0z NAM had the northern edge of todays precip to Colts Neck NJ todays 12z its into Danbury CT - 75 mile interpretation bust inside 12 hrs . NEITHER PLACE ACCUMULATES , but since when is the NAM the king of anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 just telling it how it is no troll here - that run of the NAM shows very little in the way of snow just like today Just watch the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It seems like its a matter of whether the low gets going before or after the front passes. If its faster, it has time to become more robust, but then it slows the front's progression and leads to a warmer solution. (i.e. the EC and NAM) If its slower, then the front is already through by the time you get enough organization to get much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z GFS 72 hr 500 mb very close to being NEG tilted , a few more runs and that surface should respond very close to Euro . Not that far away from a nice little event this wekend , Dont know what guys are looking at . last 2 yrs have spoiled people here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z GFS 72 hr 500 mb very close to being NEG tilted , a few more runs and that surface should respond very close to Euro . Not that far away from a nice little event this wekend , Dont know what guys are looking at . last 2 yrs have spoiled people here . Were dangerously close as you said to having a storm go negative tilt at the right time euro showed it and gfs ever so close to it as well. This storm has still has a good chance to deliver this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS and EC are still significantly different from each other on the timing of the upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12Z GFS got much colder again on Sunday.. models keep waffling back and forth between moderately cold and downright frigid. It also has the peak coming during the daytime... 850's are close to -24C... 1) Approaching mid-February and 2) lack of deep snow cover to the north would prevent frigid air, even with < -20oC 850 mb temps. approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z GFS 72 hr 500 mb very close to being NEG tilted , a few more runs and that surface should respond very close to Euro . Not that far away from a nice little event this wekend , Dont know what guys are looking at . last 2 yrs have spoiled people here . That trof has a fairly wide wavelength and I don't think it's going to take on too much of a negative tilt. If the wavelength was shorter and a more concentrated area of vorticity was diving into the base of the trof, then it would likely go more strongly negative. I think that this trof will stay fairly neutral... just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Dont get caught in climo yet if FEB 1 is midpoint then Sun angle on Feb 10 is same as Jan 20 th . -20 air could get u very close to zero one morning around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 1) Approaching mid-February and 2) lack of deep snow cover to the north would prevent frigid air, even with < -20oC 850 mb temps. approaching. these are good points.... but the models don't seem to be trying to modify how cold the air is going to be, but it's more the eventual position of the extention of the PV. If it were to extend this far south, I think it is feasible to still get that kind of cold air in here, despite the lack of snow cover... or that it is mid Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That trof has a fairly wide wavelength and I don't think it's going to take on too much of a negative tilt. If the wavelength was shorter and a more concentrated area of vorticity was diving into the base of the trof, then it would likely go more strongly negative. I think that this trof will stay fairly neutral... just my opinion Agreed, the Euro shorthens the wavelength a bit more because it bundles the energy a tad , but yes on the GFS its broader because it fires the front max out a little quicker . I just think its close and best set we1ve had all year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Dont get caught in climo yet if FEB 1 is midpoint then Sun angle on Feb 10 is same as Jan 20 th . -20 air could get u very close to zero one morning around here Midpoint is Dec 21th, so sun angle on Feb 10th is the same as Nov 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Dont get caught in climo yet if FEB 1 is midpoint then Sun angle on Feb 10 is same as Jan 20 th . -20 air could get u very close to zero one morning around here with perfect radiational cooling and snow-cover, it could get close north and west of the city.. It's not enough to get it down to zero in NYC. you need really low 850's to get NYC to touch zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Midpoint is Dec 21th, so sun angle on Feb 10th is the same as Nov 1st yes.. a common misconception about sun angle is that mid winter is the lowest sun angle.. climatologically, yes, this period is the coldest of the year and one would think the sun angle is at it's lowest but the lowest sun angle comes on the winter solstice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yes.. a common misconception about sun angle is that mid winter is the lowest sun angle.. climatologically, yes, this period is the coldest of the year and one would think the sun angle is at it's lowest but the lowest sun angle comes on the winter solstice And the coldest of hottest period doesn't coincide with the highest of lowest sun angle otherwise in summer, mid to late June would be the hottest and mid to late December would be the coldest. I'm not looking forward to the cold because I'm ready to put this horrible winter behind me and this will not make it any easier to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yes.. a common misconception about sun angle is that mid winter is the lowest sun angle.. climatologically, yes, this period is the coldest of the year and one would think the sun angle is at it's lowest but the lowest sun angle comes on the winter solstice You are correct bro , feb 1 as far as climo - sun angle you are right ( solstice ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 with perfect radiational cooling and snow-cover, it could get close north and west of the city.. It's not enough to get it down to zero in NYC. you need really low 850's to get NYC to touch zero. i think if you are out in the Hamptons your close to zero sun or mon am - depending on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 yes.. a common misconception about sun angle is that mid winter is the lowest sun angle.. climatologically, yes, this period is the coldest of the year and one would think the sun angle is at it's lowest but the lowest sun angle comes on the winter solstice The coldest period of the year for NYC is the 3rd week of Jan per climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12 Z 72 EURO LP OFF HATTERAS AT 72 HR . I LIKE THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 AHHHH not quite there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Broke cardianl rule - should have let it run .. my apologizes - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 SAT 06Z 11-FEB 2.9 -5.4 1014 71 100 0.01 545 534 SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.9 -5.2 1011 94 100 0.08 540 531 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 3.5 -6.5 1007 73 70 0.06 534 528 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 2.2 -7.2 1006 75 89 0.01 527 522 SUN 06Z 12-FEB -2.5 -11.1 1009 52 98 0.02 521 514 Total .18 QPF So this is less QPF then last nights run for NYC which was .30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam develops a coastal storm. Really nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Nam develops a coastal storm. Really nice run. Starts as rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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