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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Hr 81 the gfs caves to the euro....light snow approaching area....plenty cold for snow

81-90 it has light snow in the area....nothing to heavy....Trys to hang back a inv trough hour 90-93. In cnj

GFS total QPF for NYC is 0.02" during this period. 0.03" at TTN. 0.04" at BLM.

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I barely know how to navigate the weather underground ECMWF site, having just found it...but it *looks* like some very good snows move through the NYC / Long Island area Saturday morning and aftermoon....

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For NYC

SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.7 -4.9 1011 91 100 0.08 540 532

SAT 18Z 11-FEB 1.9 -5.8 1007 87 100 0.18 535 529

SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.0 -8.2 1006 70 89 0.04 528 523

.30 Total QPF so around 3 inches verbatim..

Is there a location where the public can get the ECMWF QPF station by station? / free

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I barely know how to navigate the weather underground ECMWF site, having just found it...but it *looks* like some very good snows move through the NYC / Long Island area Saturday morning and aftermoon....

You're right. It looks really nice. It shows about 3 inches for the NYC area.

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Not that I am aware of . From what i know it comes from all pay sources. Mine comes from Accu pro but there is also storm vista. Just not sure if stormvista gives the QPF text output....

Ok...thank you anyway...

Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I.....

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Ok...thank you anyway...

Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I.....

6z NAM says mostly mixed or rain over NYC metro 2M temps in the mid-upper 30's - NAM is the main model to watch now - it will be right with todays event NYC will be lucky to see flurries....

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In fairness the EC BL temps are marginal on Saturday still. Those Wunderground snowfall maps tend to overdo it in marginal situations.

thanks for ageeing - Be a good idea if everyone looked at the details on the individual model runs...

Also this does not impress me at all for up here in NYC metro

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=b5&size=2x&type=loop

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thanks for ageeing - Be a good idea if everyone looked at the details on the individual model runs...

Also this does not impress me at all for up here in NYC metro

http://www.wundergro...ze=2x&type=loop

Lol....having the NAM and Euro agreeing is a completely different basis for argument than "the NAM at 78 hours is the model to watch".

And also....radar posts for a storm 3 days out? LOL

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Ok...thank you anyway...

Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I.....

William correct me if im wrong but this storm is not that far off from giving us a nice snowstorm if it phases literally like a few hours earlier right?

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EC BL temps will NOT be a problem if the Euro is right - and thats the model i am buying .

The GFS temp profile takes into account that this weekend system is not developed closer to the coast like the Euro has it ,

In doing so the GFS doesnt bring minus 3 air down from 5k feet - COOLING the column , which

I think happens as progged on the Euro . so yes the GFS says mid 30`s at 2 Meters . Doesnt happen if the Euro is right .

The GFS in my opinion jumps all over the Northern branch and take the energy off the field too fast .

Its what i thought all week . and those are my thoughts ,.

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EC BL temps will NOT be a problem if the Euro is right - and thats the model i am buying .

The GFS temp profile takes into account that this weekend system is not developed closer to the coast like the Euro has it ,

In doing so the GFS doesnt bring minus 3 air down from 5k feet - COOLING the column , which

I think happens as progged on the Euro . so yes the GFS says mid 30`s at 2 Meters . Doesnt happen if the Euro is right .

The GFS in my opinion jumps all over the Northern branch and take the energy off the field too fast .

Its what i thought all week . and those are my thoughts ,.

If the Euro is right the boundary layer temps will be a problem, because there will be a more easterly component to the wind bringing warmer air from the atlantic ocean because it is closer to the coast. Also, cooling the column only happens when precip is falling so the temperature and dewpoint can both wetbulb. The gfs holds back the energy unlike the euro, it does not take the energy off the feild too fast. The 00z euro involves the energy in quicker, thus the trough is more nuetral allowing for more vorticity advection, and thus building the heights slightly more ahead of the storm, and putting it closer to the coast. The 00z gfs has the trough positive and is less organized then the euro and is not able to amplify, thus the storm is weak and further out to sea.

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If the Euro is right the boundary layer temps will be a problem, because there will be a more easterly component to the wind bringing warmer air from the atlantic ocean because it is closer to the coast. Also, cooling the column only happens when precip is falling so the temperature and dewpoint can both wetbulb.

Not in the least . winds will b NNE - low level cold air - its a northern branch feature

850`s very cold , and that the dynamics bring that cold air to the surface .

its Snow or No . this is ntio a rain snow scenerio in NYC.

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12z Nam has a low that rides the arctic front. It has snow getting into the area on Saturday. The surface temps look iffy but the 850's are cold enough.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

first of all total precip is .10 or less and surface temps are abopve freezing = which equals no accumulation - I suggest when reading the models take the snow goggles off

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