FPizz Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hr 81 the gfs caves to the euro....light snow approaching area....plenty cold for snow Thanks for the updates tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Thanks for the updates tonight No problem....not the storm of the century...but it will feel like winter this weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hr 81 the gfs caves to the euro....light snow approaching area....plenty cold for snow 81-90 it has light snow in the area....nothing to heavy....Trys to hang back a inv trough hour 90-93. In cnj GFS total QPF for NYC is 0.02" during this period. 0.03" at TTN. 0.04" at BLM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 GFS total QPF for NYC is 0.02" during this period. 0.03" at TTN. 0.04" at BLM. Well my apologies for making it better then it seemed....hopefully u did not buy ur tickets yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Well my apologies for making it better then it seemed....hopefully u did not buy ur tickets yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 HM LOL at the 90h ECMWF. This thing is getting close folks... Positive to neutral trough of 528dm swings into VA. If this amplified a little more, it would be a significant East coast snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 HM Looks pretty off the coast to these eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Looks pretty off the coast to these eyes It was soo close to a big storm. The trough needs to amplify a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Isobars leaning left all I needed to see,good euro run for the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 It was soo close to a big storm. The trough needs to amplify a little more. Sounds like an inverted trough "Additional snow falls across MD / VA / DE with an inverted trough in response to the trough." That was also HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Isobars leaning left all I needed to see,good euro run for the weekend storm. Yep. Will and HM love the outcome of this run. Really encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I barely know how to navigate the weather underground ECMWF site, having just found it...but it *looks* like some very good snows move through the NYC / Long Island area Saturday morning and aftermoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 For NYC SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.7 -4.9 1011 91 100 0.08 540 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 1.9 -5.8 1007 87 100 0.18 535 529 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.0 -8.2 1006 70 89 0.04 528 523 .30 Total QPF so around 3 inches verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 For NYC SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.7 -4.9 1011 91 100 0.08 540 532 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 1.9 -5.8 1007 87 100 0.18 535 529 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.0 -8.2 1006 70 89 0.04 528 523 .30 Total QPF so around 3 inches verbatim.. Is there a location where the public can get the ECMWF QPF station by station? / free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I barely know how to navigate the weather underground ECMWF site, having just found it...but it *looks* like some very good snows move through the NYC / Long Island area Saturday morning and aftermoon.... You're right. It looks really nice. It shows about 3 inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Is there a location where the public can get the ECMWF QPF station by station? / free Not that I am aware of . From what i know it comes from all pay sources. Mine comes from Accu pro but there is also storm vista. Just not sure if stormvista gives the QPF text output.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Not that I am aware of . From what i know it comes from all pay sources. Mine comes from Accu pro but there is also storm vista. Just not sure if stormvista gives the QPF text output.... Ok...thank you anyway... Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ok...thank you anyway... Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I..... 6z NAM says mostly mixed or rain over NYC metro 2M temps in the mid-upper 30's - NAM is the main model to watch now - it will be right with todays event NYC will be lucky to see flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 6z NAM says mostly mixed or rain over NYC metro 2M temps in the mid-upper 30's - NAM is the main model to watch now - it will be right with todays event NYC will be lucky to see flurries.... The NAM is the model to watch at 78-84 hours? Lolwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 In fairness the EC BL temps are marginal on Saturday still. Those Wunderground snowfall maps tend to overdo it in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 In fairness the EC BL temps are marginal on Saturday still. Those Wunderground snowfall maps tend to overdo it in marginal situations. thanks for ageeing - Be a good idea if everyone looked at the details on the individual model runs... Also this does not impress me at all for up here in NYC metro http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=b5&size=2x&type=loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 thanks for ageeing - Be a good idea if everyone looked at the details on the individual model runs... Also this does not impress me at all for up here in NYC metro http://www.wundergro...ze=2x&type=loop Lol....having the NAM and Euro agreeing is a completely different basis for argument than "the NAM at 78 hours is the model to watch". And also....radar posts for a storm 3 days out? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Ok...thank you anyway... Looking at the ECM <0z> looks like snow is falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour at 1:00 PM EST Saturday afternoon / Hour 90 over most of L.I..... William correct me if im wrong but this storm is not that far off from giving us a nice snowstorm if it phases literally like a few hours earlier right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 EC BL temps will NOT be a problem if the Euro is right - and thats the model i am buying . The GFS temp profile takes into account that this weekend system is not developed closer to the coast like the Euro has it , In doing so the GFS doesnt bring minus 3 air down from 5k feet - COOLING the column , which I think happens as progged on the Euro . so yes the GFS says mid 30`s at 2 Meters . Doesnt happen if the Euro is right . The GFS in my opinion jumps all over the Northern branch and take the energy off the field too fast . Its what i thought all week . and those are my thoughts ,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 EC BL temps will NOT be a problem if the Euro is right - and thats the model i am buying . The GFS temp profile takes into account that this weekend system is not developed closer to the coast like the Euro has it , In doing so the GFS doesnt bring minus 3 air down from 5k feet - COOLING the column , which I think happens as progged on the Euro . so yes the GFS says mid 30`s at 2 Meters . Doesnt happen if the Euro is right . The GFS in my opinion jumps all over the Northern branch and take the energy off the field too fast . Its what i thought all week . and those are my thoughts ,. If the Euro is right the boundary layer temps will be a problem, because there will be a more easterly component to the wind bringing warmer air from the atlantic ocean because it is closer to the coast. Also, cooling the column only happens when precip is falling so the temperature and dewpoint can both wetbulb. The gfs holds back the energy unlike the euro, it does not take the energy off the feild too fast. The 00z euro involves the energy in quicker, thus the trough is more nuetral allowing for more vorticity advection, and thus building the heights slightly more ahead of the storm, and putting it closer to the coast. The 00z gfs has the trough positive and is less organized then the euro and is not able to amplify, thus the storm is weak and further out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 If the Euro is right the boundary layer temps will be a problem, because there will be a more easterly component to the wind bringing warmer air from the atlantic ocean because it is closer to the coast. Also, cooling the column only happens when precip is falling so the temperature and dewpoint can both wetbulb. Not in the least . winds will b NNE - low level cold air - its a northern branch feature 850`s very cold , and that the dynamics bring that cold air to the surface . its Snow or No . this is ntio a rain snow scenerio in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This is not a rain snow scenerio in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z Nam has a low that rides the arctic front. It has snow getting into the area on Saturday. The surface temps look iffy but the 850's are cold enough. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F08%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z Nam has a low that rides the arctic front. It has snow getting into the area on Saturday. The surface temps look iffy but the 850's are cold enough. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Mid to upper 30s is a little worse than iffy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 12z Nam has a low that rides the arctic front. It has snow getting into the area on Saturday. The surface temps look iffy but the 850's are cold enough. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M first of all total precip is .10 or less and surface temps are abopve freezing = which equals no accumulation - I suggest when reading the models take the snow goggles off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.