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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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Its the same northern stream but it just doesn't phase with any energy in the south..its focusing on energy in the northern stream...stretching the PV out a bit and letting it dig. It might end up being too little too late, but that's where its coming from. If the southern energy didn't get lost back in Mexico and some of it eject out, then it probably would have produced a much larger scale system for the east.

Correct, its a totally different evolution to get the storm then what we were looking at last week with a possible phase of the energy over mexico. A much more miller b type solution if it does happen.

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No storm this weekend on the GFS. The PV crushes everything. Really cold this weekend in the east.

I just can't help and wonder if this is the GFS and it's usual trick. Seeing a storm in the long range. Backing off in the 120-168 hour time frame as it puts all it's eggs in the northern stream, and then at about 72-84 hours it will find the right solution. Of course having no other real support from other models for a storm, maybe this is the right solution. I just don't think the models will lock in until Thursday 12z runs.

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EURO looks like a NORLUN over NE NJ/Staten Island? Misses NYC. Doubt we see snow anyways.

SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.7 -6.3 1008 83 100 0.03 534 527

SAT 18Z 11-FEB 2.5 -6.4 1004 76 94 0.08 527 523

SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.4 -7.3 1004 86 97 0.04 523 519

SUN 06Z 12-FEB -1.7 -10.2 1007 76 89 0.14 520 515

SUN 12Z 12-FEB -5.3 -12.2 1013 52 79 0.01 522 512

NYC text output..So NYC is not missed on the weekend system

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Will wait to see if theres any continuity on the 12z Euro before i begin to doubt the weekend .

GFS loves to over power the northern stream and loves to run front maxes out ,

Could still be right , but at 120 hrs out GFS does do this sometimes .

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Will wait to see if theres any continuity on the 12z Euro before i begin to doubt the weekend .

GFS loves to over power the northern stream and loves to run front maxes out ,

Could still be right , but at 120 hrs out GFS does do this sometimes .

What??

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What would you like me to explain ?

Nothing, but it does look like the 12Z gfs is just a arctic cold front passing through with a weak wave of low pressure developing along the baroclinic zone. The flow is way too progressive for this to really strengthen. As everybody was alluding to without a block don't look for a monster storm.

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Nothing, but it does look like the 12Z gfs is just a arctic cold front passing through with a weak wave of low pressure developing along the baroclinic zone. The flow is way too progressive for this to really strengthen. As everybody was alluding to without a block don't look for a monster storm.

Fair enough , I was just alluding to .30 - .40 qpf printed out on the 0z Euro compared to nada on 12z GFS .

Hoping to see if the Euro is catching the GFS IN a typical error mode , or if this is just another case of

C`est La Vie.

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Upton's latest looks pretty bullish on at least Some Snow this weekend.. Seems Upton is more bullish than Taunton in this afternoon analysys:

With the slower timing to the shortwave...it allows for the passage

of a cold front ahead of it...allowing for the set up of a fairly

strong baroclinic zone of the middle Atlantic coast. The shortwave then

interacts with this...yielding a low S of Long Island by midday

Saturday. This low then tracks NE into the Canadian Maritimes by

Sunday morning. The result is the potential for some snow across the

region...developing from SW to NE Friday night...and continuing into

Saturday night before tapering off from SW to NE as the low pulls

away. There is some question as to exactly how much moisture will

ultimately be in play over the region...so too early to make any

call on amounts. But there does appear to be the potential for at

least a light accumulation across the tri-state.

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Upton's latest looks pretty bullish on at least Some Snow this weekend.. Seems Upton is more bullish than Taunton in this afternoon analysys:

With the slower timing to the shortwave...it allows for the passage

of a cold front ahead of it...allowing for the set up of a fairly

strong baroclinic zone of the middle Atlantic coast. The shortwave then

interacts with this...yielding a low S of Long Island by midday

Saturday. This low then tracks NE into the Canadian Maritimes by

Sunday morning. The result is the potential for some snow across the

region...developing from SW to NE Friday night...and continuing into

Saturday night before tapering off from SW to NE as the low pulls

away. There is some question as to exactly how much moisture will

ultimately be in play over the region...so too early to make any

call on amounts. But there does appear to be the potential for at

least a light accumulation across the tri-state.

Looks like they pretty much agree on the possibility, with Upton maybe a bit stronger in preferring the Euro look. Upton decided to go with a 30% chance while Taunton decided more on continuity with the model divergence still there.

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