MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 No storm this weekend on the GFS. The PV crushes everything. Really cold this weekend in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Its the same northern stream but it just doesn't phase with any energy in the south..its focusing on energy in the northern stream...stretching the PV out a bit and letting it dig. It might end up being too little too late, but that's where its coming from. If the southern energy didn't get lost back in Mexico and some of it eject out, then it probably would have produced a much larger scale system for the east. Correct, its a totally different evolution to get the storm then what we were looking at last week with a possible phase of the energy over mexico. A much more miller b type solution if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The piece of the vortex comes down much further south than on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The piece of the vortex comes down much further south than on the 12z run. That piece of energy came 500 or more miles south. A step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 No storm this weekend on the GFS. The PV crushes everything. Really cold this weekend in the east. I just can't help and wonder if this is the GFS and it's usual trick. Seeing a storm in the long range. Backing off in the 120-168 hour time frame as it puts all it's eggs in the northern stream, and then at about 72-84 hours it will find the right solution. Of course having no other real support from other models for a storm, maybe this is the right solution. I just don't think the models will lock in until Thursday 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like 3 hits on the GEFS. And FWIW, to my knowledge, this is the most amount of hits that the GEFS has shown for this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I guess I wouldn't call them "hits", more like "brushes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I guess I wouldn't call them "hits", more like "brushes". And that's barely 3 of them. The rest all have a strung out weak low ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 La la land....but nice snowstorm on the 00z gfs for vday....if only...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .30 QPF in NYC from the weekend system on the 00z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 And so it begins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 .30 QPF in NYC from the weekend system on the 00z ECM It also had the GFS VD wave but crushed it. Is .30 approximate for all the big cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It also had the GFS VD wave but crushed it. Is .30 approximate for all the big cities? I only checked ABE and NYC and just now checked KPHL... KPHL is only about half that and temps around 40 for some of that amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 I only checked ABE and NYC and just now checked KPHL... KPHL is only about half that and temps around 40 for some of that amount It's a good trend to have, though, as the Euro is beginning to get in its better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Something also showing up at Day 7-8, another SW flow type event with the retreating high. The Euro of course does not have it becasue it cuts the system off down in the Southwest as usual, GGEM and GFS both have a similar idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 EURO looks like a NORLUN over NE NJ/Staten Island? Misses NYC. Doubt we see snow anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 EURO looks like a NORLUN over NE NJ/Staten Island? Misses NYC. Doubt we see snow anyways. SAT 12Z 11-FEB 0.7 -6.3 1008 83 100 0.03 534 527 SAT 18Z 11-FEB 2.5 -6.4 1004 76 94 0.08 527 523 SUN 00Z 12-FEB 1.4 -7.3 1004 86 97 0.04 523 519 SUN 06Z 12-FEB -1.7 -10.2 1007 76 89 0.14 520 515 SUN 12Z 12-FEB -5.3 -12.2 1013 52 79 0.01 522 512 NYC text output..So NYC is not missed on the weekend system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Euro is very miller b ish for this weekend.....its really something to watch.....06z gfs organizes a low over the Carolina.....but kicks it out east....euro has a pro long period of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Will wait to see if theres any continuity on the 12z Euro before i begin to doubt the weekend . GFS loves to over power the northern stream and loves to run front maxes out , Could still be right , but at 120 hrs out GFS does do this sometimes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GGEM looks like the Euro. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Will wait to see if theres any continuity on the 12z Euro before i begin to doubt the weekend . GFS loves to over power the northern stream and loves to run front maxes out , Could still be right , but at 120 hrs out GFS does do this sometimes . What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What?? What would you like me to explain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GGEM looks like the Euro. http://www.weatherof...ast/235_100.gif Im sorry man i dont see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 What would you like me to explain ? Nothing, but it does look like the 12Z gfs is just a arctic cold front passing through with a weak wave of low pressure developing along the baroclinic zone. The flow is way too progressive for this to really strengthen. As everybody was alluding to without a block don't look for a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Nothing, but it does look like the 12Z gfs is just a arctic cold front passing through with a weak wave of low pressure developing along the baroclinic zone. The flow is way too progressive for this to really strengthen. As everybody was alluding to without a block don't look for a monster storm. Fair enough , I was just alluding to .30 - .40 qpf printed out on the 0z Euro compared to nada on 12z GFS . Hoping to see if the Euro is catching the GFS IN a typical error mode , or if this is just another case of C`est La Vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Upton's latest looks pretty bullish on at least Some Snow this weekend.. Seems Upton is more bullish than Taunton in this afternoon analysys: With the slower timing to the shortwave...it allows for the passage of a cold front ahead of it...allowing for the set up of a fairly strong baroclinic zone of the middle Atlantic coast. The shortwave then interacts with this...yielding a low S of Long Island by midday Saturday. This low then tracks NE into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning. The result is the potential for some snow across the region...developing from SW to NE Friday night...and continuing into Saturday night before tapering off from SW to NE as the low pulls away. There is some question as to exactly how much moisture will ultimately be in play over the region...so too early to make any call on amounts. But there does appear to be the potential for at least a light accumulation across the tri-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Upton's latest looks pretty bullish on at least Some Snow this weekend.. Seems Upton is more bullish than Taunton in this afternoon analysys: With the slower timing to the shortwave...it allows for the passage of a cold front ahead of it...allowing for the set up of a fairly strong baroclinic zone of the middle Atlantic coast. The shortwave then interacts with this...yielding a low S of Long Island by midday Saturday. This low then tracks NE into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday morning. The result is the potential for some snow across the region...developing from SW to NE Friday night...and continuing into Saturday night before tapering off from SW to NE as the low pulls away. There is some question as to exactly how much moisture will ultimately be in play over the region...so too early to make any call on amounts. But there does appear to be the potential for at least a light accumulation across the tri-state. Looks like they pretty much agree on the possibility, with Upton maybe a bit stronger in preferring the Euro look. Upton decided to go with a 30% chance while Taunton decided more on continuity with the model divergence still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Hr 81 the gfs caves to the euro....light snow approaching area....plenty cold for snow 81-90 it has light snow in the area....nothing to heavy....Trys to hang back a inv trough hour 90-93. In cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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