Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks transient by the orientation of the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 So we have the GFS/GGEM that trended well with the weekend storm and the 12z EURO trended backwards from its 0z run. The PV is the controller for this storm...will be interesting I guess. Our options are cold/dry or cold/snow. So I guess its not THAT bad. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 So we have the GFS/GGEM that trended well with the weekend storm and the 12z EURO trended backwards from its 0z run. The PV is the controller for this storm...will be interesting I guess. Our options are cold/dry or cold/snow. So I guess its not THAT bad. Lol Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks transient by the orientation of the cold air Its real cold Sunday and Monday.....then we stay aob normal until hr 228.....no use in over thinking a long range operational run....in the end 12z euro has no torch.....but its not exactly a snow lovers dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm. Yeah, the gfs drops a piece of energy under long island then has an inverted trough(norlun) extending back into the south coast of ne and over parts of long island, pretty cool feature and the euro tries to do the same thing, I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm. But the GFS did show a closed low storm in Florida and brought it North-Northeast from there. So it did develop a storm, which imo, trended better from 00z/06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looks transient by the orientation of the cold air The torch from the 0z run is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Well while we are on topic of the EURO and showing warmth after next weekend...the latest GFS trended in that direction as well. The MJO will probably not get to octane 1 or 2...I can see it going into 8 and quickly heading back into the COD. Winter is slowly dwindling and we have had nothing to show for it. I would like to see better trends for this storm next weekend. Both models in the long range have been incredibly inconsistent, one run shows a bunch of snowstorms, the next is a torch, I would put very little emphasis on the longer range right now especially due to the uncertainty of how the MJO will play out. The MJO is only thing giving me hope right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Both models in the long range have been incredibly inconsistent, one run shows a bunch of snowstorms, the next is a torch, I would put very little emphasis on the longer range right now especially due to the uncertainty of how the MJO will play out. The MJO is only thing giving me hope right now. Wait it gets even better...latest 12z EURO now shows average temps in the long range instead of a "torch." But yea...MJO is important I agree. The EURO has flip flopped so often this year its not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Yeah, the gfs drops a piece of energy under long island then has an inverted trough(norlun) extending back into the south coast of ne and over parts of long island, pretty cool feature and the euro tries to do the same thing, I will take it. norluns tend to not work out though,right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 norluns tend to not work out though,right? They tend to work out more up north than over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 They tend to work out more up north than over here. are there any past norlun events that stand out for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Matt Noyes piece on Norlun Troughs , Mainly a New England affair . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 are there any past norlun events that stand out for this area? I am considerably south of you guys and we had a nice one here last winter. It was a real pleasant surprise and delivered about 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am considerably south of you guys and we had a nice one here last winter. It was a real pleasant surprise and delivered about 4" of snow. I don't remember that... could you refresh my memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I am considerably south of you guys and we had a nice one here last winter. It was a real pleasant surprise and delivered about 4" of snow. Philly got 8 inches from a norlun a couple of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 are there any past norlun events that stand out for this area? Had one last year in early January that put down around 9" in parts of Fairfield Cty, CT. I don't think much got down to the NYC/LI area but it was really the first storm of snowmaggedon for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Had one about 15 years ago that brought NE PA southeast through parts of central and coastal NJ a nice surprise 4 inch snowfall. It was about a 5-10 mile wide band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Coastalwx in regards to this weekend's event. Euro ensembles definitely want to be more Miller B like with a piece of nrn stream energy swinging around the PV. This storm went from a Miller A to a Miller B? Oy Vey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Coastalwx in regards to this weekend's event. This storm went from a Miller A to a Miller B? Oy Vey its a totally seperate threat, has nothing to do with the S/W over mexico or a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z DGEX almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 ^^^ Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 18z DGEX almost there. This is from yesterday. 18z DGEX doesn't run till after the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Looking closer range, I'm fairly confident we'll all see a period of light to perhaps moderate snow Wednesday afternoon. Models have been consistent w/ a weak wave a low pressure moving south of the region 12z-0z Wed. It's something within 3 days, and that's hard to come by this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 its a totally seperate threat, has nothing to do with the S/W over mexico or a phase. Its the same northern stream but it just doesn't phase with any energy in the south..its focusing on energy in the northern stream...stretching the PV out a bit and letting it dig. It might end up being too little too late, but that's where its coming from. If the southern energy didn't get lost back in Mexico and some of it eject out, then it probably would have produced a much larger scale system for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I actually remember that. It was early January of 97. I was just getting ready to go back to school the next day. I remember it snowing the night before and watching the radar and it just kept moving right over us. I don't remember getting quite 4" but there was no snow in the forecast and I got at least 2 to 3" by the next morning. If I wasn't such a night owl back then I would missed it and woken up quite surprised. Had one about 15 years ago that brought NE PA southeast through parts of central and coastal NJ a nice surprise 4 inch snowfall. It was about a 5-10 mile wide band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 DGEX shows a miller B which affects SNE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 DGEX shows a miller B which affects SNE http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Delete your post. You posted the same thing as earlier. It is yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Delete your post. You posted the same thing as earlier. It is yesterday's run. Refresh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Refresh it Worked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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