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February 10-12 Potential


earthlight

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So we have the GFS/GGEM that trended well with the weekend storm and the 12z EURO trended backwards from its 0z run. The PV is the controller for this storm...will be interesting I guess. Our options are cold/dry or cold/snow. So I guess its not THAT bad. Lol

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So we have the GFS/GGEM that trended well with the weekend storm and the 12z EURO trended backwards from its 0z run. The PV is the controller for this storm...will be interesting I guess. Our options are cold/dry or cold/snow. So I guess its not THAT bad. Lol

Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm.

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Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm.

Yeah, the gfs drops a piece of energy under long island then has an inverted trough(norlun) extending back into the south coast of ne and over parts of long island, pretty cool feature and the euro tries to do the same thing, I will take it.

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Lets just be clear that what snow the GFS does show is not related to the Gulf storm. In fact I'd say the GFS trended worse for that storm.

But the GFS did show a closed low storm in Florida and brought it North-Northeast from there. So it did develop a storm, which imo, trended better from 00z/06z.

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Well while we are on topic of the EURO and showing warmth after next weekend...the latest GFS trended in that direction as well. The MJO will probably not get to octane 1 or 2...I can see it going into 8 and quickly heading back into the COD. Winter is slowly dwindling and we have had nothing to show for it. I would like to see better trends for this storm next weekend.

Both models in the long range have been incredibly inconsistent, one run shows a bunch of snowstorms, the next is a torch, I would put very little emphasis on the longer range right now especially due to the uncertainty of how the MJO will play out. The MJO is only thing giving me hope right now.

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Both models in the long range have been incredibly inconsistent, one run shows a bunch of snowstorms, the next is a torch, I would put very little emphasis on the longer range right now especially due to the uncertainty of how the MJO will play out. The MJO is only thing giving me hope right now.

Wait it gets even better...latest 12z EURO now shows average temps in the long range instead of a "torch." But yea...MJO is important I agree. The EURO has flip flopped so often this year its not even funny.

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Yeah, the gfs drops a piece of energy under long island then has an inverted trough(norlun) extending back into the south coast of ne and over parts of long island, pretty cool feature and the euro tries to do the same thing, I will take it.

norluns tend to not work out though,right?
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are there any past norlun events that stand out for this area?

Had one last year in early January that put down around 9" in parts of Fairfield Cty, CT. I don't think much got down to the NYC/LI area but it was really the first storm of snowmaggedon for us.

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Looking closer range, I'm fairly confident we'll all see a period of light to perhaps moderate snow Wednesday afternoon. Models have been consistent w/ a weak wave a low pressure moving south of the region 12z-0z Wed. It's something within 3 days, and that's hard to come by this winter.

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its a totally seperate threat, has nothing to do with the S/W over mexico or a phase.

Its the same northern stream but it just doesn't phase with any energy in the south..its focusing on energy in the northern stream...stretching the PV out a bit and letting it dig. It might end up being too little too late, but that's where its coming from. If the southern energy didn't get lost back in Mexico and some of it eject out, then it probably would have produced a much larger scale system for the east.

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I actually remember that. It was early January of 97. I was just getting ready to go back to school the next day. I remember it snowing the night before and watching the radar and it just kept moving right over us. I don't remember getting quite 4" but there was no snow in the forecast and I got at least 2 to 3" by the next morning. If I wasn't such a night owl back then I would missed it and woken up quite surprised.

Had one about 15 years ago that brought NE PA southeast through parts of central and coastal NJ a nice surprise 4 inch snowfall. It was about a 5-10 mile wide band.

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