The sad, humiliating spectacle of the groundhogs

[Roger Smith]

The sad, humiliating spectacle of the groundhogs

and their human worshippers

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In medieval Europe, people foretold the weather from various natural signs. If it rained on Saint Swithin's Day in mid-July, then it would rain for forty more days. If a creature might see its shadow on the second of February, then winter might continue for six weeks.

This latter superstition at least made some meteorological sense, even though there was no meteorology in the 14th century. In Europe, at least, any sunshine in early February would likely be courtesy of a Russian high, something that is on this year's February 2nd weather map, and clearly isn't going anywhere very fast. So blocking might be diagnosed by this simple tool, and perhaps it did seem quite clever to the peasants of that time.

Meanwhile, the tradition (having easily survived what it should not have done, the eleven-day adjustment of the calendar so that Feb. 2 nowadays is about like Jan. 22 in the days when the tradition began) is now presented to modern peasants and townsfolk in a number of places, most prominent of them Punxsatawney, PA, but also in Wiarton, Ontario, Shubenacadie NS, and no doubt plenty of other places.

Of course it is a sad and lamentable spectacle that can not possibly make much sense given that days can be partly cloudy, nearby locations can have different sunshine or cloud regimes, in the North American context it is a coin toss as to whether you're in a ridge or a trough that might only last a day or two, and anyway, spring usually comes a lot sooner than six weeks after February 2nd.

I believe the track record of the groundhogs when subjected to rigorous analysis proves to have correlations in the frighteningly insignificant range of -0.2 to +0.1 ... in other words, there is absolutely no significance to Groundhog Day.

WHAT !! they cried in a Craig Ferguson like mock panic.

Yes I said it, and on a weather forum. Groundhog Day is a pointless ritual that really proves only one thing, that meteorology is stuck in about the 18th century in scientific terms -- can you imagine astronomers peering through a curtain at some rodents in a field to determine the chances of seeing a total eclipse?

Not only is it pointless, but cruelty to animals, waking up the dozing and no doubt content chubby guys and gals in their burrows, and forcing them out into the glare of either the Sun or floodlights, then back into their holes, or are they just euthanized? Perhaps some of their handlers should be.

Anyway, I think there is a certain amount of play acting mixed in, a word from some off-stage forecaster as to whether clouds or sun might be the desirable "call" in certain cases where the charts are screaming "winter" or "spring" so as to improve the odds. It's not that far from Punxsatawney to State College, I know because I drove it in a blizzard one year after the groundhog failed to see his shadow, the little doofus -- that was the groundhog, not my make of car.

The public, of course, are enthralled by Groundhog Day. The media report these sightings as though they actually had some meaning, and then the public recalls the prognostication reverently for weeks afterward. "Those groundhogs sure were right," or, "those groundhogs sure were wrong" will be spoken by 77 million different individuals about 38.5 million times each times how ever many times they say it.

Aren't you proud to be part of this science? I know I am.

NOT !!!

Let's form an Anti-Groundhog League and make our feelings known to the media. They are being duped by this meaningless and demeaning exercise. But then, of course, they have become used to that sort of thing, coming from this part of science.

[AtticaFanatica]

I don't think this is nearly as big a deal as you seem to think it is.

[Smitty97]

Relax, go watch a Bill Murray movie.

[isohume]

The public, of course, are enthralled by Groundhog Day. The media report these sightings as though they actually had some meaning, and then the public recalls the prognostication reverently for weeks afterward. "Those groundhogs sure were right," or, "those groundhogs sure were wrong" will be spoken by 77 million different individuals about 38.5 million times each times how ever many times they say it.

I somehow doubt this.

[Thunder Road]

Nomination for thread of the year?