tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice polar vortex sitting in the lakes region at 168. Too bad the tropical storm off the baha is just sitting there laughing at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Don't worry. I guarantee your next post will say that the threat vanishes at 192 and the cold is moving out. This is how the models are making me feel with this latest run of the Euro. How it goes to such an extreme cold solution makes your head hurt...but it does look very good. Of course it's dry out to 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nice polar vortex sitting in the lakes region at 168. Too bad the tropical storm off the baha is just sitting there laughing at us. bias of holding back energy all that jazz. I'll gladly take my chances with what the Euro is selling on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Robert just told me the euro looks interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm interested to see if the -AO will push that displaced vortex further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Robert just told me the euro looks interesting.... Until it shows it a few times, i'd say it's just a hiccup. With that said, there is so much variability that it is a possible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS is on an island with the moisture-laden gulf low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm interested to see if the -AO will push that displaced vortex further south. That's what we really need to happen in order to get a ridge in the Atlantic to roll-over the top in -NAO fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 can't get the accum maps on wunderground. What are we looking at in Nashvile at 132? Hard to say, sfc temps are border line and BNA might be on the edge...maybe 1 - 2 inches for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 This is how the models are making me feel with this latest run of the Euro. How it goes to such an extreme cold solution makes your head hurt...but it does look very good. Of course it's dry out to 198. In episode entitled, "Where Silence Has Lease", that guy dies. You better still be here doing PBP tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The Euro has a pretty good cold blast after 180 but as stated above, we need to see consistency, which no model has been exhibiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Robert just told me the euro looks interesting.... That's what we really need to get a ridge in the Atlantic to roll-over the top in -NAO fashion both true.this run is different from GFS in how it handles the western ridge, but its a big change so don't know if its correct with that, which has a huge impact downstream. The GFS wanted to lurch the western ridge north above Alaska and cutoff, so that would be more like what we've been trhough, with the cold air not really able to push down into the eastern US, but the ECMWF holds a major tall, elongated ridge out west, perfect position to force the cold to drop in. The first close call is what it does with the western wave as it drops down toward Texas around day 5, with cold air and high pressure in the Ohio Valley, pressing south...could be cad there, as well as cold enough for snow in northern Ark, Tn, maybe TN (atleast before a changeover, then changing back over). Meanwhile that races east but by then another s/w is dropping due south with another 1040 high, associated with very cold air, and that makes good progress through the eastern half all the way through the Southeast. The Atlantic ridge could work northwest, thanks to a fujiwara effect of the deep cold vortex around southern Canada and the lakes, and how the western Ridge holds in place, without really cutting off too far north. By day 10, we have a very good, winter time look, with supressed flow. Don't know if its right, but the models could be reacting to the strong -AO lately, and with Europe warming up around this time, the cold gets redistributed and a neg NAO isn't far off. Again all this could be way off since modeling has been hard this season. We'll have to wait and see (and hope) that it works out similar to this. The change begins fairly soon, around day 5 but the way the pieces fall in place will determine how much cold eventually works south and east and if we end up with a supressed storm track and split flow and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Hard to say, sfc temps are border line and BNA might be on the edge...maybe 1 - 2 inches for now? wunderground maps have the accums slightly north of 40 into kentucky, illinois, indiana. Surface temps in the upper 30s for bna, 850s below freezing. Ican't get the skewt to work on wunderground, I'd imagine bl problems. With the euro warm bias, I'll take this. Especially this year. Please lord let this be the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 West-based -NAO at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro is definitely different...maybe even a bit of light wintry in northern TN with a weak s/w ahead of the cold airmass in the later part of the period....also does not necessarily look like one and done with the cold....Just one run though...here today, gone tomorrow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 wunderground maps have the accums slightly north of 40 into kentucky, illinois, indiana. Surface temps in the upper 30s for bna, 850s below freezing. Ican't get the skewt to work on wunderground, I'd imagine bl problems. With the euro warm bias, I'll take this. Especially this year. Please lord let this be the solution. The Euro has a warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If we can somehow pull off a split flow with a major -NAO it will be incredible. There are some really good looking EURO maps to look at presently. I just hope it's the beginning of something more consistent and substantial. What could be causing such an about face by the Euro? Is it really as simple as the ridge out west and the way it holds together in just about perfect fashion to send the polar vortex into the great lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With all the changes taking place, the data that's being sampled is not enough... The models could have some drastic flips within a short time span before they get it all sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That's what we really need to happen in order to get a ridge in the Atlantic to roll-over the top in -NAO fashion Just curious today. The blocking looked pretty good on the strat forecast this morning.The 7-10 day had a complete reversal there from 100hPa down,day 10 had reversal from about 70N up. Just 1 run on 1 day,need more evidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The Euro is the best case scenario really. The +PNA ridge just does the dirty work for us by breaking up the AK vortex and sending a piece of it SE toward the Great Lakes. Thereafter, a -NAO ridge rolls over the vortex, but the +PNA ridge breaks down....which is fine really because it would be much more difficult to get southern stream flow established in a La Nina with a strong western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Just a guess, but i bet JB just wet his pants looking at the operational run of the 12z EURO. Let's hope it's not just another illusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The Euro is the best case scenario really. The +PNA ridge just does the dirty work for us by breaking up the AK vortex and sending a piece of it SE toward the Great Lakes. Thereafter, a -NAO ridge rolls over the vortex, but the +PNA ridge breaks down....which is fine really because it would be much more difficult to get southern stream flow established in a La Nina with a strong western ridge. Nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Just a guess, but i bet JB just wet his pants looking at the operational run of the 12z EURO. Let's hope it's not just another illusion. Yep, Just watched his video and read his blog from this morning, and he was talking about the pattern coming around to cold in the east and storms and rumors of storms! As it is the pattern is now one where storms and rumors of storms have some validity. Cross polar and split flows are not the end of winter, and as a matter of fact are the kind of pattern where one has to be unlucky to miss. A month ago, models had europe normal to above for this period. Several days ago, it was near 70 in places where a foot of snow is about to fall, The weather is strange and wonderful.. and can be the source of enjoyment as well as frustration. And some you Sunday will wake up with a snowstorm that a few days earlier was the last thing on your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 It seems to be the most important trend is one towards storminess and a split flow. Who knows if the cold air will line up for us in the SE, but it seems that there is a little more consistency between the models today. Either that, or I'm just in a better mood because it's Friday! Yep, Just watched his video and read his blog from this morning, and he was talking about the pattern coming around to cold in the east and storms and rumors of storms! As it is the pattern is now one where storms and rumors of storms have some validity. Cross polar and split flows are not the end of winter, and as a matter of fact are the kind of pattern where one has to be unlucky to miss. A month ago, models had europe normal to above for this period. Several days ago, it was near 70 in places where a foot of snow is about to fall, The weather is strange and wonderful.. and can be the source of enjoyment as well as frustration. And some you Sunday will wake up with a snowstorm that a few days earlier was the last thing on your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm voting the GFS off the ranch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 12Z Euro ensembles are clearly confirming the much colder 12Z Euro op. run. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 12Z Euro ensembles are clearly confirming the much colder 12Z Euro op. run. Keep hope alive! Rocking! Let's keep it going to 00z. Anyone have info on the CMC or UKMet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I'm voting the GFS off the ranch Looking at the EURO, pinch the cold and lock it baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 12Z Euro ensembles are clearly confirming the much colder 12Z Euro op. run. Keep hope alive! Awesome news........now for some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 12Z Euro ensembles are clearly confirming the much colder 12Z Euro op. run. Keep hope alive! Well this would certainly be a first! Bob, Cheez, somebody step in here before we get too wound up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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