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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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I am sure I will get blasted for this, but I envision a scenerio where we could actually have some winter around mid month. It really hasn't happened yet this winter, but the Atlantic could become more favorable and though the Pacific Ridge gets beaten down easily after reaching up toward the pole in the next 7 days I think the MJO moving through phases 7 and 8 at possibly a pretty high amplitude means the ridging starts to build around the same time as the Atlantic is a little more favorable. Now since the bulk of the cold air is on the other side of the planet currently I don't think we have any major outbreak coming, but air that is cold enough with a MUCH better look than we have had to this point should mean that it will provide us a 10 day to 14 day period to look out for from the 13th-the 27th. I guess you can say that no matter how many times we have been burned, I remain optimistic. If I am right, we will start seeing these things come into better view in the coming days. It will mean by early to mid next week I think we have something meaningful to track.

Let's do this thing.

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YOu know in any other winter, if we had a gulf system stay on the maps in some form or other as long as this one has, it would be a sure fire big story, especially with cold air always hovering around it. But this is this year, and we have trust issues now.....well, Burger is all in....but most have trust issues, lol. Perhaps, just perhaps it is up to us to begin to believe, to trust again, have faith. Europe finally got cold! Look at Alaska! I know there are kids up there that have always wanted a winter to end all winters, and, for them, it finally came.

So, in the spirit of new found less doubtfulness, I will join Burger, in some small way, to say, perhaps, maybe, it is at least possible that low will produce something for somebody!!

It's either for real, or the GFS has slipped a gear, because that sucker is still there, in the same time frame, with cold close by, and gulf lows don't exist in a vacuum...they are always a big deal in winter!! T

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I am sure I will get blasted for this, but I envision a scenerio where we could actually have some winter around mid month. It really hasn't happened yet this winter, but the Atlantic could become more favorable and though the Pacific Ridge gets beaten down easily after reaching up toward the pole in the next 7 days I think the MJO moving through phases 7 and 8 at possibly a pretty high amplitude means the ridging starts to build around the same time as the Atlantic is a little more favorable. Now since the bulk of the cold air is on the other side of the planet currently I don't think we have any major outbreak coming, but air that is cold enough with a MUCH better look than we have had to this point should mean that it will provide us a 10 day to 14 day period to look out for from the 13th-the 27th. I guess you can say that no matter how many times we have been burned, I remain optimistic. If I am right, we will start seeing these things come into better view in the coming days. It will mean by early to mid next week I think we have something meaningful to track.

Let's do this thing.

I think your right. The models look crazy in the LR (they don't have a clue), but some of the major players (like NAO going negative) may come together right before it's too late. We really need this to start happening by mid month. That could give us a possible three week window where many in the SE can still get a meaningful winter event.

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YOu know in any other winter, if we had a gulf system stay on the maps in some form or other as long as this one has, it would be a sure fire big story, especially with cold air always hovering around it. But this is this year, and we have trust issues now.....well, Burger is all in....but most have trust issues, lol. Perhaps, just perhaps it is up to us to begin to believe, to trust again, have faith. Europe finally got cold! Look at Alaska! I know there are kids up there that have always wanted a winter to end all winters, and, for them, it finally came.

So, in the spirit of new found less doubtfulness, I will join Burger, in some small way, to say, perhaps, maybe, it is at least possible that low will produce something for somebody!!

It's either for real, or the GFS has slipped a gear, because that sucker is still there, in the same time frame, with cold close by, and gulf lows don't exist in a vacuum...they are always a big deal in winter!! T

lol I'm hoping so. I almost posted a photo of a down on his luck gambler after the GFS last night. I think that might be the biggest story of all. We had our dream track for a storm that the GFS nailed 10+ days out for so many consecutive runs in a row and we just ended up with a chilly rain. It can't get much worse than that...but I'm still holding out hope. We've got a week to turn it around and a LOT can change in a week. Just have to hope it does. If the 12z trends colder...well that's a pretty durn good sign!

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I'm sure you're smart enough. It's just a lot of information to soak in. I can follow most of it but I need a few lessons on the MJO tbh. Just read, read and read some more and try and research any things you don't understand. It takes a while, just start with one item at a time and build on it.

I've been reading about the MJO and trying to understand it but it is a very difficult concept. By far the hardest one I've come across. Hopefully one day soon I'll understand it lol.

On the bright side though, the MJO is still forecast to progress into phase 7/8 right around the time of our Valentine's day system, which from looking at analogs and reading around is pretty good.

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I think your right. The models look crazy in the LR (they don't have a clue), but some of the major players (like NAO going negative) may come together right before it's too late. We really need this to start happening by mid month. That could give us a possible three week window where many in the SE can still get a meaningful winter event.

I've also noticed that the NAO continues to want to go negative in the longer ranges. My worry is that it won't. And my second worry is, even if it does, will there be enough cold air in Canada to even make a difference. I'm not sure about either if those yet. It needs to happen soon, if it's going to, though. We're running out of time.

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lol I'm hoping so. I almost posted a photo of a down on his luck gambler after the GFS last night. I think that might be the biggest story of all. We had our dream track for a storm that the GFS nailed 10+ days out for so many consecutive runs in a row and we just ended up with a chilly rain. It can't get much worse than that...but I'm still holding out hope. We've got a week to turn it around and a LOT can change in a week. Just have to hope it does. If the 12z trends colder...well that's a pretty durn good sign!

The low that just won't go away has to set off the antenna at some point. And that cold air keeps diving in just a little late...but it can't always be late. It's the Gfs, dang it! It always has a major storm in it's repertoire, even if it is cold rain. Can never count a gom low out. Once the rain starts falling, anything can happen :)

I saw the z demon from hell off an iffy gulf storm, and I saw a great sleet finish up some heavy cold rain from the same kind of storm. Just need some colder than expected air to keep filtering in during the system. Run a gulf low up at me in winter, and I'll take what it gives....as long as that z demon doesn't come back...never want to see over 2 inches of ice again..ever. T

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West Coast Ridge fighting to hold on at 126, low trying to close off in the southwest, CAD signature there too and a 1038 high trying to come south in Canada between the ridge to the west and the vortex to the east. Will the low continue progressing and ignite our gulf of mexico low? Will the high make it down in time to catch the low. Stay tuned on as the GFS turns.

Programming note: if you dont like what you see you can still tune in 2 other times before midnight tonight to view "alternate" endings

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West Coast Ridge fighting to hold on at 126, low trying to close off in the southwest, CAD signature there too and a 1038 high trying to come south in Canada between the ridge to the west and the vortex to the east. Will the low continue progressing and ignite our gulf of mexico low? Will the high make it down in time to catch the low. Stay tuned on as the GFS turns.

Programming note: if you dont like what you see you can still tune in 2 other times before midnight tonight to view "alternate" endings

@144 ridge still out west, cut off just south of 4 corners region, split flow in east... with something brewing in the gom....

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Wow @156 a lot of energy going on out west ....dream solution would be for a super phase with that GOM storm.

It's coming inland this run and cold air retreating some......

Kid from Christmas Story with tongue stuck to pole to the cold air "...come back, come back..."

edit: This run might get interesting....that first storm is now almost an apps runner but if it could take off and pull cold air south, the cut off is way south maybe the second system works for us.....

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Showing a Miller A in early February with plentiful 1 inch + amounts of QPF and a track from the central gulf to southeast Georgia.

If only the cold air dump was to our side of the pole, we'd have stories like they are having in Africa - in Mexico or Florida and 1 foot snow amounts somewhere in the southeast. Pretty depressing.

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What a dream storm track -- right out of the Alan Huffman playbook.

Am I the only one that feels like we are being punished and taunted by the weather gods?

The worst part is the consistency by the GFS...but with no cold air I guess it would be since it's not too complicated.

There is another Miller A on the GFS at 240 (all rain) then a snow event for NC at 288. So there could be a surprise. On to the Euro.

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The worst part is the consistency by the GFS...but with no cold air I guess it would be since it's not too complicated.

There is another Miller A on the GFS at 240 (all rain) then a snow event for NC at 288. So there could be a surprise. On to the Euro.

Don't worry, if we were being toyed with, the gom low would suddenly vanish to be replaced with very cold air! Remember, we need the rain first, and hope for the cold...or is it...... we need the cold first, and hope for the rain...hmmm, I always get that confused.

Oh, well, the good news is we have more gom lows, not less! T

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Don't worry, if we were being toyed with, the gom low would suddenly vanish to be replaced with very cold air! Remember, we need the rain first, and hope for the cold...or is it...... we need the cold first, and hope for the rain...hmmm, I always get that confused.

Oh, well, the good news is we have more gom lows, not less! T

The rain is most definitely needed first imby :lol: Goofy continues to show some very good moisture headed this way and I sure hope it doesn't vanish as it gets closer.

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The Euro looks interesting. Folks in TN will like this run. At 132 there is snow across central TN....looks like a CAD signature in NC/VA with a 1020 high up north...not sure that would do the trick but I'm not an expert on CAD. Just noticed at 132 there is a 1028 in NY but it slides OTS.

Crickets in here....what a winter. Yeah, it's taking the leftovers from the cutoff out west and producing overrunning precip across the SE and into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. 0 deg line across N VA at 144

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Crickets in here....what a winter. Yeah, it's taking the leftovers from the cutoff out west and producing overrunning precip across the SE and into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. 0 deg line across N VA at 144

This might be the look we need to get people excited again...granted only one run but it sure looks good to me at 174.

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