GaWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 How are the models looking today for the end of the month snow/ice chances? Kind of quiet in here today. Nada per 6Z and 12Z Goofy's. Not even close and no surprise of course. They're near worthless that far out in time outside of entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Congrats to the northern NC folks who got snow- but here in GA I am now in total severe weather mode. Despite the occasional GFS fantasy hiccup (gone now) winter may very well be over for us. The next week looks warm after today, brief cold shot (nothing that extreme) over the weekend behind a cold front, then back to warm. Not 100% ruling out a March surprise, but for now severe storms are what I am waiting for. I'm with you on bringing on severe weather season, especially after this disastrous winter (with the exception of the much much much lower gas bills....can't complain about that!). We're fast approaching the weeks when there is usually some type of early fairly significant severe chance for the lower Mississippi valley. We'll have to see how the wedge feels like acting this spring here in N. Ga. It would probably be difficult and inaccurate due to all the other circumstances, but I would love to see a study that would outline what our severe weather seasons and tornado statistics would be like without our wedge acting as the N. Ga. severe weather shield as stuff approached from the Alabama state line. I bet our statistics would look quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 DT changes his opinion every other week, which is fine. But it just re-enforces the fact that there is so much yet unknown about forecasting. I respect his opinion, but with just a small variation here or there, we could still see another chance before it's all said and done. Other than being rude and disrespectful, there is one major flaw I have noticed in Dave Tolleris' forecasting method. He has claimed numerous times, with yesterday being his most glaring offense, that if the wetbulb temperature is above freezing that it won't snow. He basically called off the storm yesterday because of that! Apparently he has no knowledge of the partial thickness research, or how cold air is pulled to the surface. If NC only got snow with surface temperature less than freezing, most of us east of GSO would see snow once every three years at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 In the 12z models have a good handle on things, Saturday appears to be a fairly stout cold day coming up in the High Country with highs in the low 20s. A bit of upslope snow, but not much. With the AO in the condition is in, the deep trough, similar to a week back, will be quick in and quick out as in we hardly got to know ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 I personally have never seen him right. He changes his mind more than JB and always has bigger snowfall map than anybody. They never verify I have seen his maps be in the ballpark once in a while, but I don't pay a lot of attention to verification, because most of the times, the maps only cover areas farther north or have only a partial SE area covered...and THAT, I do pay attention to. The SE areas are usually never right, so I agree with you. Other than being rude and disrespectful, there is one major flaw I have noticed in Dave Tolleris' forecasting method. He has claimed numerous times, with yesterday being his most glaring offense, that if the wetbulb temperature is above freezing that it won't snow. He basically called off the storm yesterday because of that! Apparently he has no knowledge of the partial thickness research, or how cold air is pulled to the surface. If NC only got snow with surface temperature less than freezing, most of us east of GSO would see snow once every three years at best. Yeah, that's right. Dave is certainly entertaining in his writing style. But he is often quite rude. And he's also ironic. He claims not to rely on the models unless the pattern supports what they're depicting. This is where he often contradicts himself. He'll call the 18Z GFS crap and then a week later, he's using it to validate a forecast that often ends up wrong. And I'm not trying to throw him under the bus. Forecasting winter storms is an exceedingly difficult task to undertake. Sometimes they occur when they shouldn't and sometimes they don't occur when they should. Sometimes the modeling is quite accurate and sometimes it's not. In my opinion, one should use all the tools available and not be so quick to criticize others. This is a mistake that Dave seems to frequently make. All that said, I do enjoy reading his thoughts, and I wish him success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12Z Doc LR....meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 most are probably done with winter south of I-40 in the SE, imo, and most of us outside of NC/parts of TN really never got started. Time to put this crapfest behind us and move forward to severe wx and tropical season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 most are probably done with winter south of I-40 in the SE, imo, and most of us outside of NC/parts of TN really never got started. Time to put this crapfest behind us and move forward to severe wx and tropical season I'm more concerned with severe weather. It's snowed in many places of the SE around March/April before though. The sun angle's gonna annihilate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 i really thought this storm may give wnc and upstate a good snowfall, it kept trending south but I guess the high up north just wasn't quite cold enough to supply enough cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 most are probably done with winter south of I-40 in the SE, imo, and most of us outside of NC/parts of TN really never got started. Time to put this crapfest behind us and move forward to severe wx and tropical season Hopefully not bumped by mods - but I absolutely hate tropical season - too much damage, too many times. But, ahhhh the price we pay to live down here .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 kinda quiet around here, I'm reading and seeing maps about a classic winter storm and colder temps next week around 29-1st. for the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 kinda quite around here, I'm reading and seeing maps about a classic winter storm and colder temps next week around 29-1st. for the southeast It isn't showing up on any current Goofy/Doc models. The 0Z Mon Goofy had a doozy of a IP/ZR storm with the mother of all CAD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It isn't showing up on any current Goofy/Doc models. The 0Z Mon Goofy had a doozy of a IP/ZR storm with the mother of all CAD's. oh well maybe the storm will show back up. can't believe this would be it for the winter. grew up in the nc mtns. and can't believe this winter, the worse winter I've seen in 60 years. have never seen the warm temps hang on for so long or the cold stay only 2 days or 1 day and the cold is gone, go figure, but I have seen the biggest snow storms in March and I don't mean the first of March some storms have been at the end of March and even a foot of snow like April 3rd 1987 I think was the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It isn't showing up on any current Goofy/Doc models. The 0Z Mon Goofy had a doozy of a IP/ZR storm with the mother of all CAD's. Your model nicknames confuse me... Doc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Your model nicknames confuse me... Doc? That would be Doctor No = Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 That would be Doctor No = Euro. How's the Admiral looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 How's the Admiral looking? Ok, I'll bite...Which one is the Admiral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ok, I'll bite...Which one is the Admiral? It's gotta be NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It's gotta be NOGAPS! Well DUH!! The Alex Trebek did pretty well with Sunday's storm, ay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Well DUH!! The Alex Trebek did pretty well with Sunday's storm, ay? Ahhh...Canadian I presume???? We just got back from Whistler/Blackcomb in B. Columbia. EVERYTHING ends in an "ay"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I'll tell you right now that the 12z Euro at 96 hrs looks like a svr threat across the Carolinas with a very strong LLJ developing across the area and feeding warm low level temperatures and likely some amount of moisture. All of this along with a 986 mb sfc low to the north and nice divergence in the mid/upper level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Curious in retrospect as to the opinion of board experts how each of the models verified on this past event. Kudos for all of your fine work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Curious in retrospect as to the opinion of board experts how each of the models verified on this past event. Kudos for all of your fine work! I’m not an expert but here’s my 2 cents: In the long to medium range... I’m not sure which one was best but the GFS was definitely the worst. It was the only model that insisted that there would be no storm, then it went from that extreme to showing an over-amped storm that clobbered the northeast. I guess I would say the Canadian did the best in the long range followed closely by the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Curious in retrospect as to the opinion of board experts how each of the models verified on this past event. Kudos for all of your fine work! The Euro and the Canadian get 4 stars. The Canadian was a touch to far south Day 3-6 range(consistent though), Euro was the king again. I thought Nam did fairly well. It had it's moments, I give it 2.5-3 stars. The GFS IMO got schooled mid range. Was to progressive and it had App runners practically throwing stuff against the wall hamering the interior NE. No doubt, GFS played catch up the entire time it seemed like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 GFS has been getting schooled all winter, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ahhh...Canadian I presume???? We just got back from Whistler/Blackcomb in B. Columbia. EVERYTHING ends in an "ay"!! That would be "eh", eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 GFS has been getting schooled all winter, tbh. Disagree on this...up until this most recent "incident", the GFS has owned the Euro in longer range (at least since around August/September of 2011). Within 5 days, the Euro's hit rate looks fairly solid. But there is no question the GFS has out performed in most cases beyond the 5 day horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Disagree on this...up until this most recent "incident", the GFS has owned the Euro in longer range (at least since around August/September of 2011). Within 5 days, the Euro's hit rate looks fairly solid. But there is no question the GFS has out performed in most cases beyond the 5 day horizon. Talking more about its consistency in terms of keeping solutions around for more than one model run at a time, and perhaps "all Winter" was a bit of a hyperbole, mainly the last couple of months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Talking more about its consistency in terms of keeping solutions around for more than one model run at a time. If you're talking specifically about this past weekend, I agree with you. The underlined part in your post is likely where we just simply see things differently, which isn't a bad thing. In retrospect (over the course of late Fall and Winter in my FA), the GFS has led the way in maintaining it's mild and rainy solutions. I will concede that my philosophy regarding models and their run-to-run cohesion is a bias on my part. I tend to judge a particular model's success by it's understanding and solving of features within patterns, as well as it's overall "event" *alpha and omega - not necessarily it's run-to-run depictions. * i.e. - identifying the potential (alpha) and refining it's conclusion (omega). Each run will likely not be the same. It may not even be a logical next step. But the model can still reasonably determine a beginning and end with it's overall evolution. The GFS has been pretty solid in that regard - beyond 5 days - for the last 6-7 months (with this most recent system being a huge exception). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 But there is no question the GFS has out performed in most cases beyond the 5 day horizon. I have seen this type of comment all winter this year and yet when I go to the verification charts, the Euro is always on top of the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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