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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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How are the models looking today for the end of the month snow/ice chances? Kind of quiet in here today.

Nada per 6Z and 12Z Goofy's. Not even close and no surprise of course. They're near worthless that far out in time outside of entertainment.

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Congrats to the northern NC folks who got snow- but here in GA I am now in total severe weather mode. Despite the occasional GFS fantasy hiccup (gone now) winter may very well be over for us. The next week looks warm after today, brief cold shot (nothing that extreme) over the weekend behind a cold front, then back to warm. Not 100% ruling out a March surprise, but for now severe storms are what I am waiting for.

I'm with you on bringing on severe weather season, especially after this disastrous winter (with the exception of the much much much lower gas bills....can't complain about that!). We're fast approaching the weeks when there is usually some type of early fairly significant severe chance for the lower Mississippi valley. We'll have to see how the wedge feels like acting this spring here in N. Ga. It would probably be difficult and inaccurate due to all the other circumstances, but I would love to see a study that would outline what our severe weather seasons and tornado statistics would be like without our wedge acting as the N. Ga. severe weather shield as stuff approached from the Alabama state line. I bet our statistics would look quite a bit different.

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DT changes his opinion every other week, which is fine. But it just re-enforces the fact that there is so much yet unknown about forecasting. I respect his opinion, but with just a small variation here or there, we could still see another chance before it's all said and done.

Other than being rude and disrespectful, there is one major flaw I have noticed in Dave Tolleris' forecasting method. He has claimed numerous times, with yesterday being his most glaring offense, that if the wetbulb temperature is above freezing that it won't snow. He basically called off the storm yesterday because of that! Apparently he has no knowledge of the partial thickness research, or how cold air is pulled to the surface. If NC only got snow with surface temperature less than freezing, most of us east of GSO would see snow once every three years at best.

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In the 12z models have a good handle on things, Saturday appears to be a fairly stout cold day coming up in the High Country with highs in the low 20s. A bit of upslope snow, but not much.

With the AO in the condition is in, the deep trough, similar to a week back, will be quick in and quick out as in we hardly got to know ya.

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I personally have never seen him right. He changes his mind more than JB and always has bigger snowfall map than anybody. They never verify

I have seen his maps be in the ballpark once in a while, but I don't pay a lot of attention to verification, because most of the times, the maps only cover areas farther north or have only a partial SE area covered...and THAT, I do pay attention to. The SE areas are usually never right, so I agree with you.

Other than being rude and disrespectful, there is one major flaw I have noticed in Dave Tolleris' forecasting method. He has claimed numerous times, with yesterday being his most glaring offense, that if the wetbulb temperature is above freezing that it won't snow. He basically called off the storm yesterday because of that! Apparently he has no knowledge of the partial thickness research, or how cold air is pulled to the surface. If NC only got snow with surface temperature less than freezing, most of us east of GSO would see snow once every three years at best.

Yeah, that's right. Dave is certainly entertaining in his writing style. But he is often quite rude. And he's also ironic. He claims not to rely on the models unless the pattern supports what they're depicting. This is where he often contradicts himself. He'll call the 18Z GFS crap and then a week later, he's using it to validate a forecast that often ends up wrong. And I'm not trying to throw him under the bus. Forecasting winter storms is an exceedingly difficult task to undertake. Sometimes they occur when they shouldn't and sometimes they don't occur when they should. Sometimes the modeling is quite accurate and sometimes it's not. In my opinion, one should use all the tools available and not be so quick to criticize others. This is a mistake that Dave seems to frequently make. All that said, I do enjoy reading his thoughts, and I wish him success.

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most are probably done with winter south of I-40 in the SE, imo, and most of us outside of NC/parts of TN really never got started. Time to put this crapfest behind us and move forward to severe wx and tropical season :sizzle:

I'm more concerned with severe weather. It's snowed in many places of the SE around March/April before though. The sun angle's gonna annihilate it.

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most are probably done with winter south of I-40 in the SE, imo, and most of us outside of NC/parts of TN really never got started. Time to put this crapfest behind us and move forward to severe wx and tropical season :sizzle:

Hopefully not bumped by mods - but I absolutely hate tropical season - too much damage, too many times. But, ahhhh the price we pay to live down here .... :maprain:

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kinda quite around here, I'm reading and seeing maps about a classic winter storm and colder temps next week around 29-1st. for the southeast

It isn't showing up on any current Goofy/Doc models. The 0Z Mon Goofy had a doozy of a IP/ZR storm with the mother of all CAD's.

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It isn't showing up on any current Goofy/Doc models. The 0Z Mon Goofy had a doozy of a IP/ZR storm with the mother of all CAD's.

oh well maybe the storm will show back up. can't believe this would be it for the winter. grew up in the nc mtns. and can't believe this winter, the worse winter I've seen in 60 years. have never seen the warm temps hang on for so long or the cold stay only 2 days or 1 day and the cold is gone, go figure, but I have seen the biggest snow storms in March and I don't mean the first of March some storms have been at the end of March and even a foot of snow like April 3rd 1987 I think was the year.

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I'll tell you right now that the 12z Euro at 96 hrs looks like a svr threat across the Carolinas with a very strong LLJ developing across the area and feeding warm low level temperatures and likely some amount of moisture. All of this along with a 986 mb sfc low to the north and nice divergence in the mid/upper level winds.

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Curious in retrospect as to the opinion of board experts how each of the models verified on this past event. Kudos for all of your fine work!

I’m not an expert but here’s my 2 cents:

In the long to medium range... I’m not sure which one was best but the GFS was definitely the worst. It was the only model that insisted that there would be no storm, then it went from that extreme to showing an over-amped storm that clobbered the northeast.

I guess I would say the Canadian did the best in the long range followed closely by the euro.

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Curious in retrospect as to the opinion of board experts how each of the models verified on this past event. Kudos for all of your fine work!

The Euro and the Canadian get 4 stars. The Canadian was a touch to far south Day 3-6 range(consistent though), Euro was the king again. I thought Nam did fairly well. It had it's moments, I give it 2.5-3 stars. The GFS IMO got schooled mid range. Was to progressive and it had App runners practically throwing stuff against the wall hamering the interior NE. No doubt, GFS played catch up the entire time it seemed like.

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GFS has been getting schooled all winter, tbh.

Disagree on this...up until this most recent "incident", the GFS has owned the Euro in longer range (at least since around August/September of 2011). Within 5 days, the Euro's hit rate looks fairly solid. But there is no question the GFS has out performed in most cases beyond the 5 day horizon.

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Disagree on this...up until this most recent "incident", the GFS has owned the Euro in longer range (at least since around August/September of 2011). Within 5 days, the Euro's hit rate looks fairly solid. But there is no question the GFS has out performed in most cases beyond the 5 day horizon.

Talking more about its consistency in terms of keeping solutions around for more than one model run at a time, and perhaps "all Winter" was a bit of a hyperbole, mainly the last couple of months or so.

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Talking more about its consistency in terms of keeping solutions around for more than one model run at a time.

If you're talking specifically about this past weekend, I agree with you.

The underlined part in your post is likely where we just simply see things differently, which isn't a bad thing.

In retrospect (over the course of late Fall and Winter in my FA), the GFS has led the way in maintaining it's mild and rainy solutions. I will concede that my philosophy regarding models and their run-to-run cohesion is a bias on my part. I tend to judge a particular model's success by it's understanding and solving of features within patterns, as well as it's overall "event" *alpha and omega - not necessarily it's run-to-run depictions.

* i.e. - identifying the potential (alpha) and refining it's conclusion (omega). Each run will likely not be the same. It may not even be a logical next step. But the model can still reasonably determine a beginning and end with it's overall evolution. The GFS has been pretty solid in that regard - beyond 5 days - for the last 6-7 months (with this most recent system being a huge exception).

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