MillerA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Are the Euro monthlies down? I was wondering if it still had the snow hit for the 27th-29th of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Fwiw, which is not even close to dog poop outside of entertainment, the 18Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/27-8 for some of the SE. The 12Z Goofy had it on 2/28-9. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates! Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE. I understand and respect what you're saying about mixing issues. However, just to clarify so the readers aren't confused as well as for the record in this thread, I was looking at the actual snowfall output from my vendor. The 18Z for 2/27-8 has 2-4" for almost all of TN, far N MS, far NW AL, much of S and E NC, and the SC upstate. 4-8" cover NE TN and much of N NC. The 12Z for 2/28-9 has 2-6" for N MS, 2-3" for S TN and far N AL, and 2-4" for N GA, N SC, and much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE. I gotta agree here. I don't see any storm signal at the 500mb level at all. The GFS likes to magically create surface storms in the LR with little or sometimes no upper support for them. In this case, the period looks active, but I don't see any winter storm for most of the SE members anywhere front to back on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I gotta agree here. I don't see any storm signal at the 500mb level at all. The GFS likes to magically create surface storms in the LR with little or sometimes no upper support for them. In this case, the period looks active, but I don't see any winter storm for most of the SE members anywhere front to back on this run. Yeah, looks like a frontal passage on the 0z and 6z gfs. Don't see any -NAO I don't think either. Well, I'll hold out hope until early next week then I'm done this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Meanwhile, the MJO is rapidly approaching Phase 2. Barring a slowdown in the progression, the MJO could push across Phase 3 and perhaps into Phase 4 sometime during the first week in March. Both the Canadian and European ensembles show the potential for such a scenario. Should such an outcome unfold, the stage could again be set for another month of mild conditions across perhaps across a large part of the eastern third to half of North America, as the MJO again works its way through the "warmer" phases. Odds of such an outcome have been increasing. FWIW, the CFSv2 forecasts widespread mild conditions for March, including the first two weeks of the month. Saw this on the main thread....Don speaks. Seems like the MJO is going too fast. Warm phase 3 and 4 it may be and if so.....that's a wrap. Done till late December 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Funny how the MJO high tails it through the cold phases, but camps out in the warm phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I know this is 8 days out but we may get another shot by the end of the month. 18z GFS at 190 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, I haven't closed any doors. I have been reading Phil's excellent discussion of the Pac. on the main page. I'll be very interested to see his next update...and balancing that with Don's fast progression for the MJO. Seems like there are still balls in the air in this winter juggle I'm just having trouble believing in a winter without winter. Patterns change, they always do...of course this one is stubborn, but I'm up for a snowy April and May if need be, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Kind of funny; everybody is focused on this weekends storm but I also see a threat for the folowwing weekend. This is the same storm I showed yesterday, but now at 7 days not 8. The 6z GFS at 168 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Kind of funny; everybody is focused on this weekends storm but I also see a threat for the folowwing weekend. This is the same storm I showed yesterday, but now at 7 days not 8. The 6z GFS at 168 hours: Here was the 0Z same time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yep, it could be close if we get a strong high in the right position. We'll see if it stays on the maps, and doesn't turn into a zonal flow and 70 degrees, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: 10 days of winter starts Feb 23. Quite a bit colder east first, coldest air mass of winter hits pac northwest and plains Feb 26-mar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Let me know when a -NAO and 50/50 low sets up again.. otherwise no use in posting model maps beyond a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Fwiw, which is not even 1/1000 the value of pigeon poop, the 12Z Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1....mainly the E 1/2 of TN, the mtns of NC, and the CAD regions. Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 @RyanMaue: The 966 mb cyclone over Maine in 6-days will be powerful enough to drag down extreme cold for E. USA in 6-days. http://policlimate.com/weather/ecmwf/2012021912/ecmwf_uv850_nam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 @RyanMaue: The 966 mb cyclone over Maine in 6-days will be powerful enough to drag down extreme cold for E. USA in 6-days. http://policlimate.c..._uv850_nam.html Except that this probably won't happen with a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well, here we go again .... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 620 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF WEEK...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US/NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND AFFECTING CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...THE 20/00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND SHOWS AN EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WED/EARLY THURS...ALMOST 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND ALSO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Well, here we go again .... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 620 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF WEEK...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US/NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND AFFECTING CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF. HOWEVER...THE 20/00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND SHOWS AN EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WED/EARLY THURS...ALMOST 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND ALSO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. I think this one is going to be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It might be time for Mid/Long range thread #3. Who has the mojo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 It might be time for Mid/Long range thread #3. Who has the mojo? Marion_NC_WX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available. I'm quite content And I have been since Goofy started showing these late Feb. possibles. I've already had some sleet. N.C. got some snow. The future is bright with maybes..and I bought ice cream after Dr. Larry showed me the way, lol. But I must admit I can't get used to this frog suit....still if it will get me some sleets in feets, I'll keep wearing it. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available. Has there ever been a sleet or freezing rain storm in Atlanta in Late Feb/March ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 How are the models looking today for the end of the month snow/ice chances? Kind of quiet in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Congrats to the northern NC folks who got snow- but here in GA I am now in total severe weather mode. Despite the occasional GFS fantasy hiccup (gone now) winter may very well be over for us. The next week looks warm after today, brief cold shot (nothing that extreme) over the weekend behind a cold front, then back to warm. Not 100% ruling out a March surprise, but for now severe storms are what I am waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 How are the models looking today for the end of the month snow/ice chances? Kind of quiet in here today. DT says torch for the next couple of weeks with the exception of the cold shot this weekend. I also saw where a S WV'er asked if they were done with snow/ice for the winter and he replied "Yes". So, it seems DT thinks we're done. Robert as well as JB I've heard thinks there will be more chances. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 DT changes his opinion every other week, which is fine. But it just re-enforces the fact that there is so much yet unknown about forecasting. I respect his opinion, but with just a small variation here or there, we could still see another chance before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 DT changes his opinion every other week, which is fine. But it just re-enforces the fact that there is so much yet unknown about forecasting. I respect his opinion, but with just a small variation here or there, we could still see another chance before it's all said and done. I personally have never seen him right. He changes his mind more than JB and always has bigger snowfall map than anybody. They never verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Has there ever been a sleet or freezing rain storm in Atlanta in Late Feb/March ? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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