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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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Fwiw, which is not even close to dog poop outside of entertainment, the 18Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/27-8 for some of the SE. The 12Z Goofy had it on 2/28-9. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates!

Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE.

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Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE.

I understand and respect what you're saying about mixing issues. However, just to clarify so the readers aren't confused as well as for the record in this thread, I was looking at the actual snowfall output from my vendor. The 18Z for 2/27-8 has 2-4" for almost all of TN, far N MS, far NW AL, much of S and E NC, and the SC upstate. 4-8" cover NE TN and much of N NC. The 12Z for 2/28-9 has 2-6" for N MS, 2-3" for S TN and far N AL, and 2-4" for N GA, N SC, and much of NC.

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Verbatim, too warm, mixing issues even into the central/northern MA, rn event for most if not all of the SE as modeled. Still more than 10 days out, period should be watches as the end of the month may be active, but not seeing a winter storm this run, or on the 12z, even for a small fraction of the SE.

I gotta agree here. I don't see any storm signal at the 500mb level at all. The GFS likes to magically create surface storms in the LR with little or sometimes no upper support for them. In this case, the period looks active, but I don't see any winter storm for most of the SE members anywhere front to back on this run.

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I gotta agree here. I don't see any storm signal at the 500mb level at all. The GFS likes to magically create surface storms in the LR with little or sometimes no upper support for them. In this case, the period looks active, but I don't see any winter storm for most of the SE members anywhere front to back on this run.

Yeah, looks like a frontal passage on the 0z and 6z gfs. Don't see any -NAO I don't think either. Well, I'll hold out hope until early next week then I'm done this winter.

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Meanwhile, the MJO is rapidly approaching Phase 2. Barring a slowdown in the progression, the MJO could push across Phase 3 and perhaps into Phase 4 sometime during the first week in March. Both the Canadian and European ensembles show the potential for such a scenario. Should such an outcome unfold, the stage could again be set for another month of mild conditions across perhaps across a large part of the eastern third to half of North America, as the MJO again works its way through the "warmer" phases. Odds of such an outcome have been increasing. FWIW, the CFSv2 forecasts widespread mild conditions for March, including the first two weeks of the month.

Saw this on the main thread....Don speaks. Seems like the MJO is going too fast. Warm phase 3 and 4 it may be and if so.....that's a wrap. Done till late December 2012.

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Yeah, I haven't closed any doors. I have been reading Phil's excellent discussion of the Pac. on the main page. I'll be very interested to see his next update...and balancing that with Don's fast progression for the MJO.

Seems like there are still balls in the air in this winter juggle :) I'm just having trouble believing in a winter without winter. Patterns change, they always do...of course this one is stubborn, but I'm up for a snowy April and May if need be, lol. T

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Fwiw, which is not even 1/1000 the value of pigeon poop, the 12Z Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1....mainly the E 1/2 of TN, the mtns of NC, and the CAD regions. Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available.

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Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available.

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Well, here we go again ....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

620 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG

TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS

THE REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL

RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY

CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH

UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE

WEEK.

BY THE END OF WEEK...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA

AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE. MODELS

SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN

US/NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING

EASTWARD AND AFFECTING CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS

TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF.

HOWEVER...THE 20/00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND SHOWS AN EVEN MORE

PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD SPREAD

PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WED/EARLY THURS...ALMOST 24

HOURS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUN TO RUN

INCONSISTENCIES AND ALSO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...DECIDED TO NOT MAKE

ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY

PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM

TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND

ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FOR THE

WEEKEND.

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Well, here we go again ....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

620 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG

TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS

THE REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL

RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY

CONDITIONS AND TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH

UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE

WEEK.

BY THE END OF WEEK...OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA

AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE. MODELS

SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN

US/NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING

EASTWARD AND AFFECTING CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS

TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWED THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF.

HOWEVER...THE 20/00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND SHOWS AN EVEN MORE

PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD SPREAD

PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WED/EARLY THURS...ALMOST 24

HOURS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUN TO RUN

INCONSISTENCIES AND ALSO MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...DECIDED TO NOT MAKE

ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY

PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE NORTHERN STREAM

TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND

ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FOR THE

WEEKEND.

I think this one is going to be all rain.

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Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available.

I'm quite content :)

And I have been since Goofy started showing these late Feb. possibles. I've already had some sleet. N.C. got some snow. The future is bright with maybes..and I bought ice cream after Dr. Larry showed me the way, lol. But I must admit I can't get used to this frog suit....still if it will get me some sleets in feets, I'll keep wearing it. T

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Fwiw, which is not even 1/10,000 the value of chicken cr@p, the 00Z 2/20 Goofy has a major winter storm for parts of the SE US 2/29-3/1 due to the mother of all modeled CAD's. Although this one produces some moderate snow, the major winter wx for this one is from CAD induced IP/ZR. Yes, it appears Tony gets his IP. So, this makes four of the last 11 Goofy runs with a major winter storm for parts of the SE US sometime during 2/27-3/1 (per objective data). Please stay tuned to this BB for later updates as they become available.

Has there ever been a sleet or freezing rain storm in Atlanta in Late Feb/March ?

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Congrats to the northern NC folks who got snow- but here in GA I am now in total severe weather mode. Despite the occasional GFS fantasy hiccup (gone now) winter may very well be over for us. The next week looks warm after today, brief cold shot (nothing that extreme) over the weekend behind a cold front, then back to warm. Not 100% ruling out a March surprise, but for now severe storms are what I am waiting for.

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How are the models looking today for the end of the month snow/ice chances? Kind of quiet in here today.

DT says torch for the next couple of weeks with the exception of the cold shot this weekend. I also saw where a S WV'er asked if they were done with snow/ice for the winter and he replied "Yes". So, it seems DT thinks we're done. Robert as well as JB I've heard thinks there will be more chances.

TW

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DT changes his opinion every other week, which is fine. But it just re-enforces the fact that there is so much yet unknown about forecasting. I respect his opinion, but with just a small variation here or there, we could still see another chance before it's all said and done.

I personally have never seen him right. He changes his mind more than JB and always has bigger snowfall map than anybody. They never verify

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