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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly

0z Euro depicts a solution that is a warm, inland runner this AM. It has moved ever so slightly west over the past 24 hours. Looks good from DC north. It is not a coastal runner in the SE. The trend all winter has been stronger and well west once the system comes into focus. Who know where this will go at this point? But I think now you see my thinking - which I expressed well before any model caught onto.

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0z Euro depicts a solution that is a warm, inland cutter this AM. It has moved ever so slightly west over the past 24 hours. Looks good from DC north. It is not a coastal runner in the SE. The trend all winter has been stronger and well west once the system comes into focus. Who know where this will go at this point? But I think now you see my thinking - which I expressed well before any model caught onto.

The question is though, is that a trend? To play devil's advocate the last two systems here have NOT trended stronger and further west. In fact the Valentine's day system that was supposed to trend stronger and further west did not. The Euro realistically is on an island and now with the 6z it's even more alone. We'll have to wait until probably Thursday to get a good handle on it. It really can go either way. I think the trend is more for the precip shield to move northwest and because of climo those areas are always able to cash in we remember that as opposed to whole system moving west. Also for the systems earlier this year there was nothing to keep them east as opposed to this system which the models seem to think will have a kicker.

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Raleigh NSW going with rain for this coming weekend:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

327 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM...

MODELS ARE NOW IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW

IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA

SUNDAY (THE MORE NORTH ECMWF DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME) AND ITS PATH

BEYOND THAT IS QUITE SUSPECT. HOW CLOSE THE LOW HUGS THE COAST WILL

DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE

TIMING. EVEN USING THE STRONGER MORE NORTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF... IT

LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED... WITH SATURATION OF THE

AIR COLUMN ABOVE MINUS TWELVE CELSIUS LACKING IN THE MODELS AT

THIS TIME. WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWER... LESS DEEP LOW PRESSURE

DEPICTION OF THE SLOWER MODELS AND LIMIT A RAIN CHANCE TO SUNDAY

AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE TOO

WARM IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND A STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTH TRACK

VERIFIES. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 50S SATURDAY... UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S

SUNDAY... AND MID 50S MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 32 TO 37 SATURDAY AND

SUNDAY NIGHTS.

Although it's not what we want to hear, any rain in central and eastern NC will be welcome.

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Raleigh NSW going with rain for this coming weekend:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

327 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM...

MODELS ARE NOW IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW

IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA

SUNDAY (THE MORE NORTH ECMWF DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME) AND ITS PATH

BEYOND THAT IS QUITE SUSPECT. HOW CLOSE THE LOW HUGS THE COAST WILL

DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE

TIMING. EVEN USING THE STRONGER MORE NORTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF... IT

LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED... WITH SATURATION OF THE

AIR COLUMN ABOVE MINUS TWELVE CELSIUS LACKING IN THE MODELS AT

THIS TIME. WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWER... LESS DEEP LOW PRESSURE

DEPICTION OF THE SLOWER MODELS AND LIMIT A RAIN CHANCE TO SUNDAY

AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE TOO

WARM IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND A STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTH TRACK

VERIFIES. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 50S SATURDAY... UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S

SUNDAY... AND MID 50S MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 32 TO 37 SATURDAY AND

SUNDAY NIGHTS.

Although it's not what we want to hear, any rain in central and eastern NC will be welcome.

Thanks Suncat...Yeah, if I were in there situation I would go w/ rain at this time also.

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I'm optimistic for some accumulating snow this weekend/early next week for the northern and western areas of the Piedmont. It's probably the most optimistic I've been this season. We'll see some model waffling, but that low will stay suppressed and there will be enough cold on the northern fringe. Bank on it...maybe. :bag:

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I'm optimistic for some accumulating snow this weekend/early next week for the northern and western areas of the Piedmont. It's probably the most optimistic I've been this season. We'll see some model waffling, but that low will stay suppressed and there will be enough cold on the northern fringe. Bank on it...maybe. :bag:

This is definitely the one to watch for the biggest chance this season so far. Not doubt about it. The setup is really good for the western sections of the state.

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The question is though, is that a trend? To play devil's advocate the last two systems here have NOT trended stronger and further west. In fact the Valentine's day system that was supposed to trend stronger and further west did not. The Euro realistically is on an island and now with the 6z it's even more alone. We'll have to wait until probably Thursday to get a good handle on it. It really can go either way. I think the trend is more for the precip shield to move northwest and because of climo those areas are always able to cash in we remember that as opposed to whole system moving west. Also for the systems earlier this year there was nothing to keep them east as opposed to this system which the models seem to think will have a kicker.

I do agree that many options are still on the table, with the inland runner becoming more of a possibility...or even west of that. Sorry to be getting back to you late in the day but I' ve been at work - so I have a bit of an advantage by seeing the 12z suite. My main reason for commentin(in the earlier post) was due to a poster questioning whether I had any scientific reasoning behind my post. I did and it wasn't "hope" as I had stated. This shifting benefits my region very little if indeed it is even a trend. Simply put, I was right in stating that the potential for this to jog well west of the coast with warmer temps was a valid possibility. I do think a significant storm will develop but be rain for most of us in the SE. I hope I' m wrong. It's just to warm with the current model suit.

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@RyanMaue: ECMWF 00z is on board with trend towards a colder end of February (and +10 day storm)-- 10-day 850 hPa temp anomalies: http://policlimate.c..._t850a_nam.html

Yeah, you can see the ridge building out west and the cold really pushing east towards the end of the 0z euro run. The gfs is also on board w/ the cold but I believe it's a day or two later. My only problem is it looks to be cold and dry but as we all know that can change.

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Yeah, you can see the ridge building out west and the cold really pushing east towards the end of the 0z euro run. The gfs is also on board w/ the cold but I believe it's a day or two later. My only problem is it looks to be cold and dry but as we all know that can change.

Great to hear that. Back when the European monthlies were released last week, Jeff Crum posted some of their results and interesting enough it called for a possible snow solution in the east Feb 25-27. Also a neat caveat is it called for a rainstorm on or around the 2/19. At this point I'm rolling with the EURO monthly date of NEXT weekend as our last chance this winter. It also mentioned early March as being cold too, but I'm just not a believer in anything after March 1 for snow. I know it's possible and all that, but it's just too dang rare. Feb 25 or bust!! :snowing:

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I'd much rather see the cold in place first with the moisture to follow. It seems like we've been in a pattern this whole winter with at least a shot of moisture nearly every five days. I would like our chances a lot better if the cold were to lock in for 10-14 days. If that happens, i definitely think we would have our best shot all winter. Hopefully with the AO turning negative, we see that happen at the end of Feb.

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Now that it looks like we're starting the accept the inevitable for this weekend, maybe they'll be some more discussion on the longer range. From another Board it seems the MJO is going to be going into phase 1/2 into late February. From what I understand that's a colder signal for the east coast. The more I hear the more I think that we'll have one more chance late February for some snowy shenanigans.

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The most interesting thing to me last night was the LR Euro, it had us with a chance of something. @222 a Miller A is running up the coast and the race is on for cold air to link up with it...of course the Miller A goes OTS before the cold air can get there in time but it does have what looks like maybe a clipper on steroids sweeping through associated with the cold front...@234 light moisture is across all of NC with 850's all the way down into FL...this was around the same time the Euro weeklies (last week) had a snowy hit. What we want is kind of what we wanted for this weekend, that cold front to sweep through then the Miller A to ride up the coast.

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Hopefully by Monday or Tuesday we'll start to get some blips of what could be coming. It seems like the telekinetics are there (weaking LaNina, neutral NAO, MJO in phase 1-2, etc). Just looking at the GFS posted up top it seems to be some ridging showing up in Greenland no? Also the long range models have some fantasy storms and possibilities already. That's something we haven't had all winter. So, one more week, one more chance and we can all move on.

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Meh -- looks like a frontal passage to me. Nothing in the 6z GFS to indicate there is anything in the pipeline.

The sooner we all accept the fact that this winter is over (which it was about a month ago despite all the hyper-optimistic protestations on this board) the better.

The most interesting thing to me last night was the LR Euro, it had us with a chance of something. @222 a Miller A is running up the coast and the race is on for cold air to link up with it...of course the Miller A goes OTS before the cold air can get there in time but it does have what looks like maybe a clipper on steroids sweeping through associated with the cold front...@234 light moisture is across all of NC with 850's all the way down into FL...this was around the same time the Euro weeklies (last week) had a snowy hit. What we want is kind of what we wanted for this weekend, that cold front to sweep through then the Miller A to ride up the coast.

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Folks,

The last five Goofy 11-15 day progs have really backed off on the widespread E US cold the prior four runs were showing. DonSutherland has been simply outstanding this winter with his tame winter predictions. Regardless of what happens and despite no sig. and widespread winter storms to this point, we can already say that Feb. has been infinitely more interesting than the prior months in the SE overall from a wintry perspective. Getting an actual storm is always problematic in the SE US. At least there have been interesting threats/lots of talk about model runs, which is a good portion of the fun anyway...the anticipation and excitement about the possibility. That's a big part of what makes winter in the SE so much fun and we've had it this month. Keep hope alive!

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Fwiw, which is virtually nothing outside of entertainment, the 12Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/28-9 for some of the SE. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates!

I've been watching around the 25th and again near the end of the month. This ain't over, no matter how many want to give it up :) It ain't over in Ga. until that cold day during the Master's, which often comes..some times even with flurries around. T

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I've been watching around the 25th and again near the end of the month. This ain't over, no matter how many want to give it up :) It ain't over in Ga. until that cold day during the Master's, which often comes..some times even with flurries around. T

Fwiw, which is not even close to dog poop outside of entertainment, the 18Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/27-8 for some of the SE. The 12Z Goofy had it on 2/28-9. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates!

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