Gastonwxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z GFS ensemble members at 150, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 FWIW...6z GFS went back to breaking the s/w to pieces resulting in no storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly 0z Euro depicts a solution that is a warm, inland runner this AM. It has moved ever so slightly west over the past 24 hours. Looks good from DC north. It is not a coastal runner in the SE. The trend all winter has been stronger and well west once the system comes into focus. Who know where this will go at this point? But I think now you see my thinking - which I expressed well before any model caught onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z Euro depicts a solution that is a warm, inland cutter this AM. It has moved ever so slightly west over the past 24 hours. Looks good from DC north. It is not a coastal runner in the SE. The trend all winter has been stronger and well west once the system comes into focus. Who know where this will go at this point? But I think now you see my thinking - which I expressed well before any model caught onto. The question is though, is that a trend? To play devil's advocate the last two systems here have NOT trended stronger and further west. In fact the Valentine's day system that was supposed to trend stronger and further west did not. The Euro realistically is on an island and now with the 6z it's even more alone. We'll have to wait until probably Thursday to get a good handle on it. It really can go either way. I think the trend is more for the precip shield to move northwest and because of climo those areas are always able to cash in we remember that as opposed to whole system moving west. Also for the systems earlier this year there was nothing to keep them east as opposed to this system which the models seem to think will have a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I can't say that I'm all that disappointed with the somewhat westward shift of the Euro. It's very close to the perfect setup for WNC piedmont, foothills, and mountains. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raleigh NSW going with rain for this coming weekend: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 327 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM... MODELS ARE NOW IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA SUNDAY (THE MORE NORTH ECMWF DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME) AND ITS PATH BEYOND THAT IS QUITE SUSPECT. HOW CLOSE THE LOW HUGS THE COAST WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE TIMING. EVEN USING THE STRONGER MORE NORTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF... IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED... WITH SATURATION OF THE AIR COLUMN ABOVE MINUS TWELVE CELSIUS LACKING IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWER... LESS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPICTION OF THE SLOWER MODELS AND LIMIT A RAIN CHANCE TO SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE TOO WARM IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND A STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTH TRACK VERIFIES. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 50S SATURDAY... UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY... AND MID 50S MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 32 TO 37 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. Although it's not what we want to hear, any rain in central and eastern NC will be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Raleigh NSW going with rain for this coming weekend: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 327 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM... MODELS ARE NOW IN ROUGH AGREEMENT IN RUNNING A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA SUNDAY (THE MORE NORTH ECMWF DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME) AND ITS PATH BEYOND THAT IS QUITE SUSPECT. HOW CLOSE THE LOW HUGS THE COAST WILL DETERMINE OUR RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE TIMING. EVEN USING THE STRONGER MORE NORTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF... IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED... WITH SATURATION OF THE AIR COLUMN ABOVE MINUS TWELVE CELSIUS LACKING IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWER... LESS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPICTION OF THE SLOWER MODELS AND LIMIT A RAIN CHANCE TO SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE TOO WARM IF RAIN DEVELOPS AND A STRONGER LOW WITH A MORE NORTH TRACK VERIFIES. CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 50S SATURDAY... UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY... AND MID 50S MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 32 TO 37 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. Although it's not what we want to hear, any rain in central and eastern NC will be welcome. Thanks Suncat...Yeah, if I were in there situation I would go w/ rain at this time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I can't say that I'm all that disappointed with the somewhat westward shift of the Euro. It's very close to the perfect setup for WNC piedmont, foothills, and mountains. Time will tell... I think we need to count another loss and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm optimistic for some accumulating snow this weekend/early next week for the northern and western areas of the Piedmont. It's probably the most optimistic I've been this season. We'll see some model waffling, but that low will stay suppressed and there will be enough cold on the northern fringe. Bank on it...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm optimistic for some accumulating snow this weekend/early next week for the northern and western areas of the Piedmont. It's probably the most optimistic I've been this season. We'll see some model waffling, but that low will stay suppressed and there will be enough cold on the northern fringe. Bank on it...maybe. This is definitely the one to watch for the biggest chance this season so far. Not doubt about it. The setup is really good for the western sections of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 12Z Nam at 84 hours even slower than the Euro with the 5h energy -- still back over Baja vs. 0z Euro at 96 which was well into old Mexico. This slow trend reminds me of last year -- this thing might be an Apps runner before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z GFS not good...this time around it's the opposite. We have a decent low on the Florida Panhandle but the 50/50 we need in Canada does not exist. I'm hoping this is a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The question is though, is that a trend? To play devil's advocate the last two systems here have NOT trended stronger and further west. In fact the Valentine's day system that was supposed to trend stronger and further west did not. The Euro realistically is on an island and now with the 6z it's even more alone. We'll have to wait until probably Thursday to get a good handle on it. It really can go either way. I think the trend is more for the precip shield to move northwest and because of climo those areas are always able to cash in we remember that as opposed to whole system moving west. Also for the systems earlier this year there was nothing to keep them east as opposed to this system which the models seem to think will have a kicker. I do agree that many options are still on the table, with the inland runner becoming more of a possibility...or even west of that. Sorry to be getting back to you late in the day but I' ve been at work - so I have a bit of an advantage by seeing the 12z suite. My main reason for commentin(in the earlier post) was due to a poster questioning whether I had any scientific reasoning behind my post. I did and it wasn't "hope" as I had stated. This shifting benefits my region very little if indeed it is even a trend. Simply put, I was right in stating that the potential for this to jog well west of the coast with warmer temps was a valid possibility. I do think a significant storm will develop but be rain for most of us in the SE. I hope I' m wrong. It's just to warm with the current model suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looking beyond this weekend's rainstorm: @RyanMaue: GFS 00z extended range (9-16 days) translates an extreme negative AO into worst Arctic blast of winter for USA: http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ext_raw_temp_c.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @RyanMaue: ECMWF 00z is on board with trend towards a colder end of February (and +10 day storm)-- 10-day 850 hPa temp anomalies: http://policlimate.com/weather/ecmwf/2012021500/ecmwf_t850a_nam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 @RyanMaue: ECMWF 00z is on board with trend towards a colder end of February (and +10 day storm)-- 10-day 850 hPa temp anomalies: http://policlimate.c..._t850a_nam.html Yeah, you can see the ridge building out west and the cold really pushing east towards the end of the 0z euro run. The gfs is also on board w/ the cold but I believe it's a day or two later. My only problem is it looks to be cold and dry but as we all know that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, you can see the ridge building out west and the cold really pushing east towards the end of the 0z euro run. The gfs is also on board w/ the cold but I believe it's a day or two later. My only problem is it looks to be cold and dry but as we all know that can change. Great to hear that. Back when the European monthlies were released last week, Jeff Crum posted some of their results and interesting enough it called for a possible snow solution in the east Feb 25-27. Also a neat caveat is it called for a rainstorm on or around the 2/19. At this point I'm rolling with the EURO monthly date of NEXT weekend as our last chance this winter. It also mentioned early March as being cold too, but I'm just not a believer in anything after March 1 for snow. I know it's possible and all that, but it's just too dang rare. Feb 25 or bust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Looking beyond this weekend's rainstorm: @RyanMaue: GFS 00z extended range (9-16 days) translates an extreme negative AO into worst Arctic blast of winter for USA: http://policlimate.c...raw_temp_c.html I like that terminology. I've really missed the cold this year. It' be nice to have a week or two of actual winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog_10_2002 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'd much rather see the cold in place first with the moisture to follow. It seems like we've been in a pattern this whole winter with at least a shot of moisture nearly every five days. I would like our chances a lot better if the cold were to lock in for 10-14 days. If that happens, i definitely think we would have our best shot all winter. Hopefully with the AO turning negative, we see that happen at the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Last couple of years we were amazed to see long stretches of negative NAO. This year has been opposite but still amazing (or at least interesting): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Now that it looks like we're starting the accept the inevitable for this weekend, maybe they'll be some more discussion on the longer range. From another Board it seems the MJO is going to be going into phase 1/2 into late February. From what I understand that's a colder signal for the east coast. The more I hear the more I think that we'll have one more chance late February for some snowy shenanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Really active pattern setting up on the 00z GFS, with multiple systems in the mid to long range (and strong systems at that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 And the wheels turn again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The most interesting thing to me last night was the LR Euro, it had us with a chance of something. @222 a Miller A is running up the coast and the race is on for cold air to link up with it...of course the Miller A goes OTS before the cold air can get there in time but it does have what looks like maybe a clipper on steroids sweeping through associated with the cold front...@234 light moisture is across all of NC with 850's all the way down into FL...this was around the same time the Euro weeklies (last week) had a snowy hit. What we want is kind of what we wanted for this weekend, that cold front to sweep through then the Miller A to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hopefully by Monday or Tuesday we'll start to get some blips of what could be coming. It seems like the telekinetics are there (weaking LaNina, neutral NAO, MJO in phase 1-2, etc). Just looking at the GFS posted up top it seems to be some ridging showing up in Greenland no? Also the long range models have some fantasy storms and possibilities already. That's something we haven't had all winter. So, one more week, one more chance and we can all move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Meh -- looks like a frontal passage to me. Nothing in the 6z GFS to indicate there is anything in the pipeline. The sooner we all accept the fact that this winter is over (which it was about a month ago despite all the hyper-optimistic protestations on this board) the better. The most interesting thing to me last night was the LR Euro, it had us with a chance of something. @222 a Miller A is running up the coast and the race is on for cold air to link up with it...of course the Miller A goes OTS before the cold air can get there in time but it does have what looks like maybe a clipper on steroids sweeping through associated with the cold front...@234 light moisture is across all of NC with 850's all the way down into FL...this was around the same time the Euro weeklies (last week) had a snowy hit. What we want is kind of what we wanted for this weekend, that cold front to sweep through then the Miller A to ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Folks, The last five Goofy 11-15 day progs have really backed off on the widespread E US cold the prior four runs were showing. DonSutherland has been simply outstanding this winter with his tame winter predictions. Regardless of what happens and despite no sig. and widespread winter storms to this point, we can already say that Feb. has been infinitely more interesting than the prior months in the SE overall from a wintry perspective. Getting an actual storm is always problematic in the SE US. At least there have been interesting threats/lots of talk about model runs, which is a good portion of the fun anyway...the anticipation and excitement about the possibility. That's a big part of what makes winter in the SE so much fun and we've had it this month. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Fwiw, which is virtually nothing outside of entertainment, the 12Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/28-9 for some of the SE. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Fwiw, which is virtually nothing outside of entertainment, the 12Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/28-9 for some of the SE. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates! I've been watching around the 25th and again near the end of the month. This ain't over, no matter how many want to give it up It ain't over in Ga. until that cold day during the Master's, which often comes..some times even with flurries around. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I've been watching around the 25th and again near the end of the month. This ain't over, no matter how many want to give it up It ain't over in Ga. until that cold day during the Master's, which often comes..some times even with flurries around. T Fwiw, which is not even close to dog poop outside of entertainment, the 18Z Goofy has a major winter storm 2/27-8 for some of the SE. The 12Z Goofy had it on 2/28-9. Stay tuned to this BB for further updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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