WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z UKMET looks similar to the global, just a nice southern stream wave, ~1005mb low well east of The SC coast at 144hrs. Keeps the wave closed off into east TX, 552-556dm, through 120hrs. No phasing I can tell based on the crappy inverted meteociel maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Correct...too warm, but the kinks will work out I guess. How can you tell? The GFS had 850's roughly the same place at the same time, I think the CMC was even colder 850's at 120.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I actually like the idea of a OTS solution on this one if we indeed have such a strong cutoff over maine and also the lack of a huge +PNA doesn't seem to favor a lot of digging by the northern stream, eliminating the chances of a bigtime phase. In fact there is a kicker system right on it's tail. Will need to watch that to make sure it doesn't screw up the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 CMC looks very close to GFS, weak HP over lakes, 1005 SLP east of Charleston SC. Its a 997 low east of ILM at 144 by 200 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Correct...too warm, but the kinks will work out I guess. 0C 850 isotherm runs along 40 at 132 hrs, prior to precip arriving, dips slightly south at 138 as precip moves through. NC is on the northern fringe this run, maybe a little too surpresed, kind of what you want to see a this range given the perpetual north trend. QPF does not make it farther north than southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 On the Canadian, I'd estimate the snow line at 132 to be NC mtns, HKY, GSO, Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface. EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Its a 997 low east of ILM at 144 by 200 miles or so I was probably looking at the same crappy map too, CMC updated, 997 a couple hundred miles east of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Fairly large precip field on CMC tonight. It will be interesting to see just the precipitation totals for the SE. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Alright...had to paste this for RDU, who knows the next time we see this in a day 5-6 model run. 120219/1800Z 138 03012KT 29.8F SNPL 12:1| 3.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.319 12:1| 3.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.35 61| 39| 0 120219/2100Z 141 03014KT 30.9F SNPL 7:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.055 11:1| 4.1|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.40 77| 23| 0 120220/0000Z 144 02011KT 30.0F SNPL 16:1| 1.7|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.106 12:1| 5.8|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.51 76| 24| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120220/0300Z 147 02011KT 30.7F SNPL 10:1| 1.4|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.138 12:1| 7.3|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.65 79| 21| 0 120220/0600Z 150 02007KT 29.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 7.5|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface. EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT. Some of it probably has to do with the CAD coming in a little late to make this all frozen(at least on this run). Combine that with dynamical cooling being greater under heavier precip and that's the most likely reason(isothermal layer) or dragging the cold air down. But the the checklist seems to be there for this one. Euro ENS has weak neg nao this weekend, 50/50 cutoff low, CAD, and a weak splitflow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface. EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT. As long as the 850s are below 0 I would say there should still be a decent chance of snow falling... we should see some cooling if the precip is heavy enough, and we've all seen it snow well above freezing. I also think in the next couple of days this thing is going to trend colder at the surface, just due to the fact it seems like thats how it normally works, but considering we're in a little bit of a slump it might not. Such a fine line we have to toe, sucks there even has to be a line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 GFS ens mean @132, no more pesky wave moving through the great lakes, rather a hint of high pressure into the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Saw this in MA thread... I agree with this but what the GFS is doing is how NC / VA get their famous snowstorms too. Giant 50-50 low and progressive Pacific kick the wave more East than North. At this time, there is only some indication that the next incoming trough will potentially cutoff somewhere over the Plains or Rockies. We need that to keep trending toward that solution to see a northward push. Of course, if you are in NC or VA, you are likely wishing for the current scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just looked at sounding for PGV and RWI for the 0z GFS, PGV may have some mixing around 144hrs wi the last 500' around 1C and a wet bulb slightly above freezing near 850mb, very narrow though and 0.7C. Saturation looks good, all the way up to 450mb, temps in the SN growth zone are good also. Prior to and after 144hrs, looks like all SN, RWI this is an all SN event based on the 0z GFS soundings. Sure wish this was not 6 days out, a lot could go wrong and almost everything has to go right, this is the SE after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 anyone checked soundings for GSO/INT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 anyone checked soundings for GSO/INT? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=36&sounding.lon=-80&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=00&fhour=144¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Day 3 Euro H5 2 Contour. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/120214060955.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Day 5 Euro @ 120HR. Looks like a 1003mb LP near Mobile, AL. Going inland. http://vortex.plymou...20214062159.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro is farther north with the low- just a rain system for most on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yuck, track through central GA, warm run to say the least, should not have stayed up, night y'all (horrible run south of VA), summation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 System on Euro drops rapidly off the VA coast. 982mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MA and NE threads are buzzing if that is any indication what kind of run this was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MA and NE threads are buzzing if that is any indication what kind of run this was. The wrong kind of run for the SE that's what. Obviously an outlier.... Gotta love it. Bed for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 MA and NE threads are buzzing if that is any indication what kind of run this was. Yep I'm sure the folks up in VA are absolutely loving this run. They get hit nicely with snow up their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looking at the euro qpf/soundings looks like mostly snow in the NC mtns/foothills, probably a solid .8 to .9 of qpf. This is a real exciting setup at day 5 for a lot of the area. I wouldn't be quick to give up on this one. The combo of the 50/50 low and strong southern branch is pretty classic looking at 500mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ahhh it's just the models doing The Wobble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looking at the euro qpf/soundings looks like mostly snow in the NC mtns/foothills, probably a solid .8 to .9 of qpf. This is a real exciting setup at day 5 for a lot of the area. I wouldn't be quick to give up on this one. The combo of the 50/50 low and strong southern branch is pretty classic looking at 500mbs. Close to a classic track for a WNC thumping I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Want that low in Fla. Don't want it touching Ga. At least I don't, lol. Bring it in below the panhandle. And don't want too strong a storm. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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