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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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I actually like the idea of a OTS solution on this one if we indeed have such a strong cutoff over maine and also the lack of a huge +PNA doesn't seem to favor a lot of digging by the northern stream, eliminating the chances of a bigtime phase. In fact there is a kicker system right on it's tail. Will need to watch that to make sure it doesn't screw up the timing.

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Correct...too warm, but the kinks will work out I guess.

0C 850 isotherm runs along 40 at 132 hrs, prior to precip arriving, dips slightly south at 138 as precip moves through. NC is on the northern fringe this run, maybe a little too surpresed, kind of what you want to see a this range given the perpetual north trend. QPF does not make it farther north than southern VA.

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Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface.

EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT.

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Alright...had to paste this for RDU, who knows the next time we see this in a day 5-6 model run.

120219/1800Z 138 03012KT 29.8F SNPL 12:1| 3.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.319 12:1| 3.7|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.35 61| 39| 0

120219/2100Z 141 03014KT 30.9F SNPL 7:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.055 11:1| 4.1|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.40 77| 23| 0

120220/0000Z 144 02011KT 30.0F SNPL 16:1| 1.7|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.106 12:1| 5.8|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.51 76| 24| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120220/0300Z 147 02011KT 30.7F SNPL 10:1| 1.4|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.138 12:1| 7.3|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.65 79| 21| 0

120220/0600Z 150 02007KT 29.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 7.5|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0

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Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface.

EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT.

Some of it probably has to do with the CAD coming in a little late to make this all frozen(at least on this run). Combine that with dynamical cooling being greater under heavier precip and that's the most likely reason(isothermal layer) or dragging the cold air down. But the the checklist seems to be there for this one. Euro ENS has weak neg nao this weekend, 50/50 cutoff low, CAD, and a weak splitflow setup.

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Interesting soundings from 0z GFS (I know, I know, too far away for soundings, but we haven't tracked anything all winter so shut it). Actually colder in CLT than points west (like Shelby). Shelby drops to 34.5 when precip starts and gets .86 inches of liquid -- but never gets below 1.0 celsius until most of precip is past. CLT gets to .9 celsius in first three hours and picks up 8 more mm at .3C surface.

EDIT: Monroe -- which is SOUTHEAST of the city - has an even colder sounding than CLT.

As long as the 850s are below 0 I would say there should still be a decent chance of snow falling... we should see some cooling if the precip is heavy enough, and we've all seen it snow well above freezing. I also think in the next couple of days this thing is going to trend colder at the surface, just due to the fact it seems like thats how it normally works, but considering we're in a little bit of a slump it might not. Such a fine line we have to toe, sucks there even has to be a line...

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Saw this in MA thread...

I agree with this but what the GFS is doing is how NC / VA get their famous snowstorms too. Giant 50-50 low and progressive Pacific kick the wave more East than North.

At this time, there is only some indication that the next incoming trough will potentially cutoff somewhere over the Plains or Rockies. We need that to keep trending toward that solution to see a northward push.

Of course, if you are in NC or VA, you are likely wishing for the current scenario.

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Just looked at sounding for PGV and RWI for the 0z GFS, PGV may have some mixing around 144hrs wi the last 500' around 1C and a wet bulb slightly above freezing near 850mb, very narrow though and 0.7C. Saturation looks good, all the way up to 450mb, temps in the SN growth zone are good also. Prior to and after 144hrs, looks like all SN, RWI this is an all SN event based on the 0z GFS soundings. Sure wish this was not 6 days out, a lot could go wrong and almost everything has to go right, this is the SE after all.

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Looking at the euro qpf/soundings looks like mostly snow in the NC mtns/foothills, probably a solid .8 to .9 of qpf. This is a real exciting setup at day 5 for a lot of the area. I wouldn't be quick to give up on this one. The combo of the 50/50 low and strong southern branch is pretty classic looking at 500mbs.

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Looking at the euro qpf/soundings looks like mostly snow in the NC mtns/foothills, probably a solid .8 to .9 of qpf. This is a real exciting setup at day 5 for a lot of the area. I wouldn't be quick to give up on this one. The combo of the 50/50 low and strong southern branch is pretty classic looking at 500mbs.

Close to a classic track for a WNC thumping I'd say

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