Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z 108 hours... 0z at 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Our southern stream s/w really slams on the brakes vs. 18z run -- its remnants at 120 hours of 18z run were over Alabama - on 0z run at 114 hours -- still back over Texas, but MUCH stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That should be a mini-reinforcement of cold air with that high coming into Minnesota at 108....baby steps....would be nice to get that in prior to the arrival of the wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looking interesting at 126... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Our southern stream s/w really slams on the brakes vs. 18z run -- its remnants at 120 hours of 18z run were over Alabama - on 0z run at 114 hours -- still back over Texas, but MUCH stronger. Wow, this may be going inland, trough axis is already turning with such a strong vort embedded... Northern stream energy looks absent, this should be a non-phasing solution. ~1024mb HP over the great lakes, attempting to wedge into the OH valley, know it is not much, but at least we don't have a disturbance there, source of marginal cold... 850 0C isotherm running from Elizabeth City to CLT at 135hrs, sw foothills likely SN, good qpf inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 freezing line along I-40 at 132 and decent amounts of QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 At 135 freezing line is along the NC/SC border with moisture coming in. Low is at 1008mb moving through northern FL/southern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 129 -- low off Panama City -- weak high pressure to the north but in a lovely spot. S/w pooping out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice N.C. hit -- now THAT is a setup where it could definitely trend colder-- banana shaped high over Great Lakes -- definitely a weak CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Snow really gets going up to 147 and accumulates across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Noteworthy improvement on the GFS...both with the cold look and with how it handles the southern wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Southern half of N.C. -- .75-1.0 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Guys you dont want the wave to be super strong. That will cause too much WAA. A nice weak disturbance like this is perfect for snow with a high in this position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 all in all...a nice look on the GFS. Let's hope this is the start of a trend. If this feature gets stronger with each run, it only helps in the long run with producing more dynamic cooling for those areas who are borderline with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There may be a much stronger high moving down from manitoba and re-enforcing the high over the great lakes. Looking better! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nice N.C. hit -- now THAT is a setup where it could definitely trend colder-- banana shaped high over Great Lakes -- definitely a weak CAD setup. Yep, note that 1038hp in central Canada at 150hrs, isobars would indicate there is some tap of that airmass with the weak high pressure that shows up over the great lakes. Certainly the potential to trend colder now that it looses a phase and great lakes wave. Was worried this run was going to be a 95 bomb, glad to see just a dominat southern stream disturbance and source of cold starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Love the 1030+ high in central Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You would think GFS is weakening the southern stream a little to much. Also if the kicker in the PAC NW is not as fast it could be on a more NE trajectory. I just want that 50-50 low and the HP over the lakes to stay consitent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Good run for the triangle, heavy wet snow. Inside 1300/1540 for the meat of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z gfs was a step in the right direction w/ the cold air. I would like to see this to continue in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hmmm -- that looks a lot better for RDU than it does for CLT and the western Piedmont .... Great run for the triangle, heavy wet snow. Inside 1300/1540 for the meat of it... Thickness panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z Canadian much stronger with southern s/w than the 12z run -- it has also slowed down considerably and is now even slower than the GFS -- at 120 hours, 500 mb low still back over far southern Texas vs. GFS which had it at Texas/La. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Canadian OTS at 144 -- can't see 132 until color charts come out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 UKMet has a similar southern slider... 96 - positive tilt, closed wave just south of El Paso....sfc low just sw of Brownsville 120 - neutral tilt, closed wave in E Central TX....sfc low near Baton Rouge 144 - sfc low off Hilton Head (due south of Hatteras) - nearly identical to GFS at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 0z Canadian much stronger with southern s/w than the 12z run -- it has also slowed down considerably and is now even slower than the GFS -- at 120 hours, 500 mb low still back over far southern Texas vs. GFS which had it at Texas/La. border. Looks like Canadian misses phase. Pretty warm too? Tough to tell on B&W. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 just stopping in to say i'm happy you guys are getting in on at least some model excitiment http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow150.gif i just hope it snows somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 CMC looks very close to GFS, weak HP over lakes, 1005 SLP east of Charleston SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like Canadian misses phase. Pretty warm too? Tough to tell on B&W. http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif Correct...too warm, but the kinks will work out I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Fairly amazing agreement, not staying up for Euro, to scared. If you think about it's only about a 100 hours till the low hits the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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