NGaWxNerd Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I would suggest people read the Medium Range Forecast discussion over on the main weather board. Very interesting stuff. Our very own Phil (who has now moved NE) is turning into a fantastic source and Met. It seems from what I can tell we won't know anything until next week I tried to read the discussions on the main board....I'm not smart enough . It was all prtetty much Greek to me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I would suggest people read the Medium Range Forecast discussion over on the main weather board. Very interesting stuff. Our very own Phil (who has now moved NE) is turning into a fantastic source and Met. It seems from what I can tell we won't know anything until next week I was wondering what happened to him. Did he move to Pennsylvania and see his shadow today? Bad joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 @wxbrad just tweeted that the euro came in much colder for this Sunday and could be fun to watch, anyone care to share their thoughts since he posted a map and I have zero clue what I'm looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 @wxbrad just tweeted that the euro came in much colder for this Sunday and could be fun to watch, anyone care to share their thoughts since he posted a map and I have zero clue what I'm looking at? This is what he posted: The blue 540 line is essentially the freezing line. So, he's saying it's a lot colder (or closer to NC/the SE) than the 0z run for this event. That's all. To compare the two runs, see image below I just threw together. (edit: this is at 75 hours instead of 78 hours, but you get the idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yeah and the angle of the cold is much better!!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No, you're forgetting the main rule here: if they show cold, they're wrong or an outlier and not to be trusted. If they show warm, then they're a lock. +100 BIZILLION. It would have been "mildly" amusing to have someone track this stat over the course of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 After this weekend's system...0z GFS shows a decent chunk of cold air with a slight wedge signature at 132...below freezing 850's down to I-40 in North Carolina. Infact 138 shows a nice dry-CAD for North Carolina...precip does begin to build in the Southwestern GOM at 138. If we had any kind of blocking in the Atlantic, then we could have a threat. IF...IF...IF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 flurry at Robert's house at 153? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 After this weekend's system...0z GFS shows a decent chunk of cold air with a slight wedge signature at 132...below freezing 850's down to I-40 in North Carolina. Infact 138 shows a nice dry-CAD for North Carolina...precip does begin to build in the Southwestern GOM at 138. If we had any kind of blocking in the Atlantic, then we could have a threat. IF...IF...IF Yep pretty much a perfect track now with no cold air in place. If only the GFS was this good when we had the cold with fantasy Miller storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cold air begins its retreat at 150 while low pressure develops in the Gulf...looks like another GFS run of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Cold air begins its retreat at 150 while low pressure develops in the Gulf...looks like another GFS run of nothing. @168 she's heading north and so are our temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 @168 she's heading north and so are our temps. Another soaker heading north as well...if there's one thing about the winter, it has been very wet at least here along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 One good thing is at 174 compared to the 18z this run does look colder...but it's not anywhere close for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With a track like that and cold air not far away... this storm could viably produce snowfall, especially in the mountains. With enough dynamics and a favorable track the cold air could be pulled down from above.. maybe just wishcasting but that track looks perfect, alas this is 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Another soaker heading north as well...if there's one thing about the winter, it has been very wet at least here along the escarpment. All of our cold air just chills out in Maryland. How depressing. This run doesn't really have that much rain for NC folks...well at least out to 183. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With a track like that and cold air not far away... this storm could viably produce snowfall, especially in the mountains. With enough dynamics and a favorable track the cold air could be pulled down from above.. maybe just wishcasting but that track looks person, alas this is 7 days out Ya i agree anything coming from the gulf this time of the year is worth watching closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 As has been a trend all winter...very tight gradient between cold arctic air and warmer continental air. -21 850's along the US/Canada border and the 0 line along the Mason-Dixon Line...meanwhile I-40 is about 5-above 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Everyone do yourself a favor. Don't look at the GFS past 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 Let me say...I wanna show some love for the 59 users reading this thread. The Southeast crew has been loyal all winter long...as bad as it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I tried to read the discussions on the main board....I'm not smart enough . It was all prtetty much Greek to me for some reason. I'm sure you're smart enough. It's just a lot of information to soak in. I can follow most of it but I need a few lessons on the MJO tbh. Just read, read and read some more and try and research any things you don't understand. It takes a while, just start with one item at a time and build on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 A very nice -NAO seems to be building at hour 384 on the 0Z Goofy. Keeping hope alive for a rockin' late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ya this run was really not that bad. The end of the run looked good with the NAO trying to go negative. I do think we WILL see blocking over Greenland this month just as GaWX said keep hope alive. It is only the first of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ya this run was really not that bad. The end of the run looked good with the NAO trying to go negative. I do think we WILL see blocking over Greenland this month just as GaWX said keep hope alive. It is only the first of Feb. The third of Feb but I hear you. I do like your optimism, I wish I had some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The third of Feb but I hear you. I do like your optimism, I wish I had some. Ya don't get me wrong this pattern has sucked and waiting for the pattern to change is like pulling teeth. I just cannot see us torching from now till next fall. I think something will give. There are signs out there that the pattern will become more fovorable. One is that the AO finally flipped, the NAO will go negative at some point this winter. I think there are too many signs pointing to it. Ya also just trying to keep up the optimism . I no a lot of people are down about this winter but we are not out of it guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 A very nice -NAO seems to be building at hour 384 on the 0Z Goofy. Keeping hope alive for a rockin' late Feb. I've been jumped by a bad cough this week, and I've been eating quite a lot of ice cream for it's soothing qualities....and danged if I'm not getting really mello about all this weather stuff!! I can see the exquisite symmetry of the cold air deciding to wait up north until the gulf low gets out of the way, and the sly artistry of said cold air advancing only when nothing moist is around. And the final coup.... the snow appearing only out at the very edge of the lr...the spider singing to the silly flies, luring them so happily to the cliff. Dang, Larry, this ice cream zen really works!! Why worry? All will be revealed. Meanwhile, ice cream is always good when it's 70 outside!! Shoot, I might go buy some sand and make a beach in the yard I see now you weren't loosing your edge at all, but rather the ice cream allows you to see the inner workings of the weather, kind of like the code in the Matrix! It is coming...I can see that now!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Well according to our groundhog here, General Beauregard Lee, we get an early spring. But the National Climatic Data Center says the groundhogs are about 39% correct overall. Knowing that, I feel better about what is getting ready to happen. There's an analog no one thought to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I've been jumped by a bad cough this week, and I've been eating quite a lot of ice cream for it's soothing qualities....and danged if I'm not getting really mello about all this weather stuff!! I can see the exquisite symmetry of the cold air deciding to wait up north until the gulf low gets out of the way, and the sly artistry of said cold air advancing only when nothing moist is around. And the final coup.... the snow appearing only out at the very edge of the lr...the spider singing to the silly flies, luring them so happily to the cliff. Dang, Larry, this ice cream zen really works!! Why worry? All will be revealed. Meanwhile, ice cream is always good when it's 70 outside!! Shoot, I might go buy some sand and make a beach in the yard I see now you weren't loosing your edge at all, but rather the ice cream allows you to see the inner workings of the weather, kind of like the code in the Matrix! It is coming...I can see that now!! T Lol! By the way, the 6Z Goofy also looks good at 384. It still looks like a -NAO wants to develop then. Keeping hope alive for a rockin' late Feb. into March but accepting whatever happens as there's a good side to most everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 6z seemed more like prior model runs of the gfs. And its really close to having a big storm for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I've been having to deal with family isssues of late so I haven't been on much but everytime I sign on I'm hearing about problems with this thread. So here's the deal, from this point forward anyone who is being disruptive, a weenie, etc is going to start getting timeouts right off the bat. Yes this winter sucks but it's no excuse for being an ass so everyone is being put on notice right now..if you want to keep your posting priviledges, you better think before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am still holding to my prediction that RDU gets blanked in measurable snow this year (for the first time since the 80's I believe). The pattern will likely change just in time for some cold rains in Spring. If I am wrong it will likely be a vigorous ULL or a marginal slush event in March. I am considering a move to northern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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