packbacker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Kind of hard seeing this coming much further west than the 12z Euro run, that was running up along the coast. There appears to be another system coming in the west which is going to push everything east, at least that's what I see happening, but I guess if we get a super phase it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 FWIW (almost nothing) 18z NAM at 84 hours looks like a spitting image of the 12z Euro with Baja closed low placement and other features. Yep that last panel looked good. Makes you wonder what craziness the DGEX is going to spit out this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Classic split stream system on the Euro. Get ready for runs and runs of waffling with the rain/snow line. Taking the storm track litrally and accounting for model biases and their usual lack of underestimating dynamical cooling, this is borderline for RDU with probably my house in NE Raleigh getting a rain/snow mix and western parts of the Triangle and the western piedmont/foothills/mountains doing well, like someone mentioned earlier a Dec 2009 type event, where I literally saw 30 minutes of snow mixed with rain and then rain and 33. Anyway, folks all options are on the table with this system and with the lack of strong CAD and it being mid February, it will be all dependent on the track and dynamics for who gets the snow. The GFS is a strung out mess, the Canadian is further south than the Euro. So hopefully we get a fun week of tracking. Is this the event that is being talked about? It looks like this was mostly a rain event for KCLT. Hickory had a mixed bad of precip, with a mostly SN event for the mountains. Setup looks similar to what the models are hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Is this the event that is being talked about? It looks like this was mostly a rain event for KCLT. Hickory had a mixed bad of precip, with a mostly SN event for the mountains. Setup looks similar to what the models are hinting at. Yeah, that's what I was thinking too, wonder how we can get the 5h maps of this, very curious to see what the west looked like and where exactly the 50-50 low, looks like there was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This system looks like a classic north ga screwjob (except maybe the mountains)..while carolinas, especially NC/the northwest half, get hit. Long ways out I know but it sure looks like one of those systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wxwatcher91 from NE thread has a great write up on all the players on the table, looks very complicated. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32665-219-east-coast-winter-storm-threat/page__view__findpost__p__1367521 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dual jet feature would favor strengthening low pressure and lift due to increased upper divergence from the coupling of left exit region of southern jet and right entrance region of mid-Atlantic jet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Spoke to Brad Panovich on twitter, and right now he says he thinks Charlotte could see 1-3 inches, but tough to tell right now. He talks about it in his blog. http://wxbrad.com/?p=2891 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 wxwatcher91 from NE thread has a great write up on all the players on the table, looks very complicated. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32665-219-east-coast-winter-storm-threat/page__view__findpost__p__1367521 Good find, I am just going to quote his post over here if that's ok... Even with so many pieces involved in the overall evolution of a potential storm next weekend, interesting that a somewhat consistent solution has held serve; Gulf low moving to somewhere off the SE Coast. The last 24 hours of model runs have certainly had a few interesting outcomes / trends. A number of factors here that need to be considered for this forecast problem. 1) The Friday trough ... amplitude, speed, etc. ... that is our "50/50" low 2) Shortwave diving through the Midwest around the same general vortex on Saturday morning 2/18 ... some model runs actually keyed in on this s/w to phase (or attempt phasing) with the southern energy 3) More s/w energy in Manitoba within the west side of the vortex that may or may not amplify into a lobe off the vortex. ... this is where the vortex gets stretched, which is a decent idea considering upper level flow on the south side of the vortex accelerates from ~40kt over the Midwest to 150kt+ blasting off the east coast. 4) The southern energy ...amplitude, speed, etc. ... pretty classic Gulf coast low in formation on all the model guidance. 5) Shortwave in the Central Plains Saturday morning ... this has generally been the "popular choice" for the models at this point for the key northern s/w. 6) Shortwave upstream of (5) in southern Canada ... I think a few runs this weekend wanted to key in on this one, but that idea has flown. Now the Euro wants to phase it into the western vortex energy (3)... 7) Another pesky s/w coming onshore in the west kicking things eastward, and preventing an amplified western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I must say the setup looks decent for someone to cash in outside the mountains. We have a long haul on this one but I like where things are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yep that last panel looked good. Makes you wonder what craziness the DGEX is going to spit out this evening. Literally, ~1' for areas in and around Danville - Richmond, SE VA gets crushed too 850 low track, N GA through the upstate to near RDU then east of ORF, good for NW NC, southern 1/3 of VA, great track for Richmond DGEX though, but obviously not an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well the 18z plays Dr. No on this round. It sheers our low out, there is some moisture that goes into the SE but it's too warm everywhere out to 126 at least anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Almost gets there but the moisture is long gone before the cold can settle going out toward Day 6. GFS remains adamant on not much of anything happening but perhaps it may be playing catch up. Just wishful thinking on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Literally, ~1' for areas in and around Danville - Richmond, SE VA gets crushed too DGEX though, but obviously not an outlier Wow...well I figured it would just cream someone . That snowfall map will be fun to look at. DT might have a heart attack lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well the 18z plays Dr. No on this round. It sheers our low out, there is some moisture that goes into the SE but it's too warm everywhere out to 126 at least anyways. often heard you can't trust the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 18z GFS and the Euro looks very similar at hour 78 (84 on Euro) 0z on Friday expect the cut off in the southwest is so much stronger on the Euro. At 0z Friday it's a triple contour cutoff on the Euro and a single on the GFS. Pretty big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 next weekend could be good for wnc and s. virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 And so it continues on the DGEX but has this somewhat further north than it did on its previous 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 One thing to point out, as we approach spring, the length of day is getting longer(+2.03 min each day as of today). Which means, the angle of the sun in relation to the ground is increasing. We have gained about a hour of daylight since the Winter Solstice. If snow happens during the day, ratios could be impacted by the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 often heard you can't trust the 18z Statistically, there is very little difference between any of the model runs. Of course, if one looks at models every six hours, he can certainly get a little information overload, though! Anyways, this looks like something interesting to track, for sure. I hope it comes far enough east to get Raleigh, but if not I will definitely be heading home this weekend if GSO looks like it's going to get hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I hope dc gets in on the action, but I'll head back to nc if that looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Generally a good sign when the euro picks up on it day 8-9 loses it and then it comes back day 5-6. Looking like this may be the one to watch. Am interested to watch tonight as this system comes in. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a nice dusting-inch in a few places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Quick glance, about half of the 18z mems are big hits for the 95 corridor, DC - BOS, even a couple mid-low 970's super bombs in there. Don't really see any that look good for the SE, mainly a VA north deal based on a simple consensus. Still several more days of back and forth, would not be surprised to see this trend towards a big hit for our friends up north if the phasing potential is realized. Also would not be surprised to see it slide OTS, not really impacting areas north of VA as a phase takes place too late or not at all. Temps are certainly dependent on track (and strength), I don't like that pesky area of low pressure showing up on some of the models near the great lakes. If that energy can somehow play out differently, I could see high pressure wedging into the great lakes/OH valley area from the northern plains, aided by the flow in SE Canada, that could possibly be a source of cold air that does not start showing up until 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Quick glance, about half of the 18z mems are big hits for the 95 corridor, DC - BOS, even a couple mid-low 970's super bombs in there. Don't really see any that look good for the SE, mainly a VA north deal based on a simple consensus. Still several more days of back and forth, would not be surprised to see this trend towards a big hit for our friends up north if the phasing potential is realized. Also would not be surprised to see it slide OTS, not really impacting areas north of VA as a phase takes place too late or not at all. Temps are certainly dependent on track (and strength), I don't like that pesky area of low pressure showing up on some of the models near the great lakes. If that energy can somehow play out differently, I could see high pressure wedging into the great lakes/OH valley area from the northern plains, aided by the flow in SE Canada, that could possibly be a source of cold air that does not start showing up until 3-4 days out. Yeah, just looking too, I imagine our NE friends are liking that. That energy over the lakes would be a deal killer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 often heard you can't trust the 18z Statistically, there is very little difference between any of the model runs. Of course, if one looks at models every six hours, he can certainly get a little information overload, though! Anyways, this looks like something interesting to track, for sure. I hope it comes far enough east to get Raleigh, but if not I will definitely be heading home this weekend if GSO looks like it's going to get hit. Load of info on this subject. tl:dr no difference in 18Z and 6z vs 0 and 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Load of info on this subject. tl:dr no difference in 18Z and 6z vs 0 and 12Z http://www.americanw...z-and-18z-runs/ Ha, that's the exact thread I was thinking of. I got my incorrect thinking set straight in it, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I hope dc gets in on the action, but I'll head back to nc if that looks better You probably should stay up in DC, Millz. It seems to be trending that way, as it just won't be as suppressed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 From all my years of experience posting on these boards and following the models, I can tell you that the one thing I hate is an RIC bullseye 6 days out. It has happened before and never works out. We're sort of outcasts here. Don't really fit in the MA thread nor this one. Here's hoping we all get in on the action though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 From all my years of experience posting on these boards and following the models, I can tell you that the one thing I hate is an RIC bullseye 6 days out. It has happened before and never works out. We're sort of outcasts here. Don't really fit in the MA thread nor this one. Here's hoping we all get in on the action though! No one ever wants to be bullseye outside of 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 From all my years of experience posting on these boards and following the models, I can tell you that the one thing I hate is an RIC bullseye 6 days out. It has happened before and never works out. We're sort of outcasts here. Don't really fit in the MA thread nor this one. Here's hoping we all get in on the action though! Your in a good as spot as any, if this phases and really hugs the coast NE you would think RIC would still do good, if it misses the phase and is OTS then nobody is going to get hit so what does it matter. If I could pick one spot to be in I would probably pick Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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