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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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Lets not get too worried about temperatures right now. From the text printout above for RDU, the dewpoints are below 0C so the precip falling would have room to wetbulb. Also, the specifics of the airmass feed into the storm are still a long ways away. Lets be thankful there is something to even track. But with caution I will say that since this is a southern stream wave with Pacific origin, its not going to be consistently modeled right until the energy gets over land. I guess same can be said for the northern low that becomes the 50/50.

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While it's great that we are seeing a consensus of some fashion for a potential winter storm to affect the region on Sunday, on the Euro alone I'm a tad worried. Nice to see that it trends to a point where it actually gives a decent hit of snow for places outside the Apps for once but it has been wanting to bring this progressively further north on the recent runs. I'd like to see this not be so perfect already being six days out and instead gradually become better (not just for NC but for many other areas as well just out of generosity) as we get closer but nonetheless I would take this in a heartbeat and run with it for MBY.

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DT has sounded the ALARM:

Wxrisk.com

?*** ALERT *** ALERT ***ALERT .... this is No drill ... 12Z EURO BRING in MUCH strong SE US LOW HEAVY SNOW to all of central and eastern VA --over 6 inches and much of Northern NC ... this not a drill... WOOF WOOF BARK WOOF

Like· · Share · 537052 · 16 minutes a

A truly professional post. No wonder DT is so respected. MEOW MEOW PURR PURR

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Fun run of the Euro. The model shifted slightly further N with the actual SLP track, but it's a stronger system, so the 850s crach nicely as the low cranks along the coast. So, this is a nice miller A track to get the upper Southeast some snow.

There is only so far north this system can go, assuming the 500mb feature near the Canadian maritimes is modeled correctly. See below.

post-390-0-93907300-1329160592.png

Terrible timing for us in NC. Strong low sitting right on the NC/SC coastline at 150. 850's are close but look at those 2m temps considering this around 1pm or so.

Keep in mind that it is still Feb. Also, with this kind of storm system, I am not as worried about time of day as I am some other systems.

A whole lot can go wrong....need to keep the energy more consolidated, unlike the 12z GFS. And obviously, the type of precip any location sees is entirely track-dependent.

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Temps are going to be huge problem for anyone SE of 85/40, this kind of reminds me of the mid-Dec 2009 storm. RDU really struggles with borderline temps, usually we lose out, unless a 1028+ or stronger high over the lakes magically come in I wouldn't get our hopes up for RDU. It would suck for RDU but it would be good to see a big one hit a lot of people.

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If the Euro bias comes through on this one, I can see it phasing further to the west. A lot of times the Euro has a tendency to hold back energy in the southwest just a little bit too long. If that is what is going on here, it will be out in front of the northern stream piece and would look to phase quite a bit sooner. It will be interesting to see the outcome play out here, but all options are still on the table.

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Temps are going to be huge problem for anyone SE of 85/40, this kind of reminds me of the mid-Dec 2009 storm. RDU really struggles with borderline temps, usually we lose out, unless a 1028+ or stronger high over the lakes magically come in I wouldn't get our hopes up for RDU. It would suck for RDU but it would be good to see a big one hit a lot of people.

I would go even further than that and say anyone outside of the mountains in NC will have issues. Everywhere outside of the Mountains are well above freezing during the entire event. Only after the system is pulling away does the cold air get drawn in at the surface.

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RDU on the Euro

UN 06Z 19-FEB 5.8 1.0 1016 60 65 0.00 560 547

SUN 12Z 19-FEB 4.4 -0.7 1013 86 100 0.09 558 547

SUN 18Z 19-FEB 3.0 0.0 1008 97 98 0.36 552 546

MON 00Z 20-FEB 2.3 -1.4 1013 96 92 0.28 549 539

MON 06Z 20-FEB 1.6 -1.9 1018 96 4 0.00 555 541

MON 12Z 20-FEB -0.8 -1.1 1023 94 23 0.00 560 542

I would be interested to see the soundings for RDU because you are likely to see a warm nose punching in around 925mb given a track offshore around ILM. Verbatim this was a good run for areas just W&N of CLT, up into the Tidewater area. RDU would be mostly RN given a strong low so close to the coast, E NC is all RN, except for maybe the NE part. Not far north of the triangle would get walloped though, as Allan said earlier, one place could be mostly RN while 30 miles away they get a heavy wet SN.

Temps are going to be huge problem for anyone SE of 85/40, this kind of reminds me of the mid-Dec 2009 storm. RDU really struggles with borderline temps, usually we lose out, unless a 1028+ or stronger high over the lakes magically come in I wouldn't get our hopes up for RDU. It would suck for RDU but it would be good to see a big one hit a lot of people.

Temps are a function of track, RDU needs a track from the FL panhandle to about 100-150 miles off HAT based on climo. W NC would want a track through S GA to right along the NC Coast. Someone is going to win while others get screwed, very rare for most to cash in on the same system.

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My guess is -- that when all is said and done -- more folks on this thread will be complaining about the track being too far west/north than south/east.

Temps are a function of track, RDU needs a track from the FL panhandle to about 100-150 miles off HAT based on climo. W NC would want a track through S GA to right along the NC Coast. Someone is going to win while others get screwed, very rare for most to cash in on the same system.

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I would be interested to see the soundings for RDU because you are likely to see a warm nose punching in around 925mb given a track offshore around ILM. Verbatim this was a good run for areas just W&N of CLT, up into the Tidewater area. RDU would be mostly RN given a strong low so close to the coast, E NC is all RN, except for maybe the NE part. Not far north of the triangle would get walloped though, as Allan said earlier, one place could be mostly RN while 30 miles away they get a heavy wet SN.

Temps are a function of track, RDU needs a track from the FL panhandle to about 100-150 miles off HAT based on climo. W NC would want a track through S GA to right along the NC Coast. Someone is going to win while others get screwed, very rare for most to cash in on the same system.

Good post and I agree. It isn't often you see everyone in the SE get hit w/ the same storm. There's always a winner and a looser on storms in the SE.

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If the Euro bias comes through on this one, I can see it phasing further to the west. A lot of times the Euro has a tendency to hold back energy in the southwest just a little bit too long. If that is what is going on here, it will be out in front of the northern stream piece and would look to phase quite a bit sooner. It will be interesting to see the outcome play out here, but all options are still on the table.

i dont know how much more it can come NW.... theres so much confluence in the NE

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I can agree that it can only go so far north and west with the confluence shown, but if it phases sooner i can see a much more expansive northern and westward shield of precip.

youre speaking of the general theme of 09-10 when DC was never modeled to get precip but always managed to get hammered from the expansive precip blob

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Classic split stream system on the Euro. Get ready for runs and runs of waffling with the rain/snow line. Taking the storm track litrally and accounting for model biases and their usual lack of underestimating dynamical cooling, this is borderline for RDU with probably my house in NE Raleigh getting a rain/snow mix and western parts of the Triangle and the western piedmont/foothills/mountains doing well, like someone mentioned earlier a Dec 2009 type event, where I literally saw 30 minutes of snow mixed with rain and then rain and 33.

Anyway, folks all options are on the table with this system and with the lack of strong CAD and it being mid February, it will be all dependent on the track and dynamics for who gets the snow. The GFS is a strung out mess, the Canadian is further south than the Euro. So hopefully we get a fun week of tracking.

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HPC Disco...

FOR THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY ALONG THE WRN US-MEXICO BORDER THE

00Z GEFS MEAN DIFFERS THE GREATEST FROM OTHER SOLNS IN DEPICTING A

WEAKER AND SLOWER/NWD FEATURE AT LEAST ON DAY 3 THU. ONCE THIS

FEATURE OPENS AND CONTINUES EWD... ASSOC SFC LOW EVOLUTION FROM

THE GULF INTO THE ATLC STILL HAS A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY

BASED ON CURRENT ENSEMBLE SPREAD. VARYING DEGREES OF NRN STREAM

INVOLVEMENT IN GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONGER TRENDS OF THE

12Z ECMWF/UKMET IN THIS REGARD... ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE 12Z

GFS IS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IN SHOWING AT

LEAST EQUAL EMPHASIS ON A SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE WHEREAS EVEN

THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS MODESTLY STRONG/NWD THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THE

SRN STREAM WAVE BY LATE SAT. PREFER A CONSERVATIVE SOLN STRONGER

THAN THE GFS BUT WEAKER THAN THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF GIVEN RELATIVE

LACK OF ESTABLISHED CONTINUITY FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO THUS FAR.

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Here is a snippet re: this weekends LP system from the NWS-GSP afd:

THE FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN ON SAT WITH THE NEXT SW CONUS LOW

BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS NOW INLINE WITH THE

00Z ECWMF AS FAR AS DEVELOPING A GOM LOW AND BRINGING IN A GOOD

AMOUNT OF GOM/ATL MOISTURE FLUX. THE GFS IS STINGY ON ACTUAL QPF

HOWEVER AND ONLY ACCOUNTS FOR A RESPONSE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN

WHERE THE BEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINES WITH MECHANICAL LIFT.

THIS PRECIP WOULD RELATIVELY QUICK AND BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT IT

SHOULD BE ON THE LOW END RIGHT NOW AS FAR ANY ACCUMS. MAXES FOR SAT

WILL FALL AROUND A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE INCREASED

WIDESPREAD OPAQUE CLOUD COVER.

AFTER THAT...SUN THROUGH MON LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING

TEMPS IN A HIGH INSOLATION ENVIRONMENT. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE

AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LATEST ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF THE

INCOMING HIPRES SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE NEAR

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12z ECMWF ens mean has a ~1012mb low south of LA @ 126, good signal at this range. After that best guess is members diverge on track since it opens up off the Carolina coast. Mean takes it offshore around SVH/CHS at 144hrs, with lighter QPF amounts compared to what was shown along the gulf coast, again, probably indicative of spread amongst the members.

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wow -- Euro shows low bombing out at 144 over E central Ga.

All I know is I love it when the people doing PBP start their posts with "wow". The next 4 days watching models I feel is going to be like watching a putt slowly meander toward the hole, breaking, meandering....GET IN THE HOLE!! ARE YOU TOO GOOD FOR YOUR HOME!!!???? GO HOME!! :yikes:

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12z ECMWF ens mean has a ~1012mb low south of LA @ 126, good signal at this range. After that best guess is members diverge on track since it opens up off the Carolina coast. Mean takes it offshore around SVH/CHS at 144hrs, with lighter QPF amounts compared to what was shown along the gulf coast, again, probably indicative of spread amongst the members.

There is a good cluster east of the operational low at 150.

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