RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z GFS keeps the energy too strung out. It is possible, but the GFS has a more coarse resolution than the ECMWF so it may just be resoloving it correctly. LEts see what the 12z GGEM/EUro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So at 102, you have a healthy shortwave entering Texas, lowering pressures in the northwest gulf. At the same time you have another fairly healthy shortwave just behind the southern action diving in from Montana, (the position behind the almost neutrally tilted trough in Texas looks good) At the same time you have a 50/50 low providing confluence (albeit not in an ideal spot), and the hints of a slightly negative NAO. What am i missing, other than surface maps that look like poo? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12Z GFS still not there, but there are so damn many shortwaves on the map, I don't know how it could possibly get the interaction right this far out. That's what I was thinking, lots of shortwaves to keep tabs on and interactions will be tough to nail down this far out. 12z GFS looked similar to the 0z Euro @ 138hrs, compared to last nights Canadian. The EC though held onto a sharper wave running along the northern gulf coast while this run of the global flattened it out like a pancake. Close to something big and close to nothing, hopefully we can consider this run an outlier amongst the other 12z guidance today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I am not buying the squashed piece o junk the 12z GFS is portraying. I suppose it could happen, but a higher likelyhood is that it's playing to it's progressive and suppressed nature here. The shortwave looked great at 102 in Texas, then poof........ I think we've set a record for the number of "poof's" this winter. There is a 500mb vort parcel that dives down into the southern stream in S California at 114, and you can see that dampen our storm wave....so that's one thing I'm looking for....we want to keep that southern stream free from upstream waves. I think temps are going to be a big concern though east of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z GFS keeps the energy too strung out. It is possible, but the GFS has a more coarse resolution than the ECMWF so it may just be resoloving it correctly. LEts see what the 12z GGEM/EUro show. Is the big issue that northern energy not diving down fast enough to link up to phase and that is causing the low to sheer out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z UKMET looks like a hit between 120 & 144, nice to have the second most accurate global model not loosing it, may even track along the GA-Carolina coast this run, unsure without the in between, but slp over southern AL/MS at 120, to a couple hundred miles east of Norfolk at 144. Through 126, Canadian has a sub 1010 just south of the mouth of the MS, nice trough coming out of the central Plains, may look similar to the 0z run based on a quick comparison between the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Theme this year has been to shear the s/w as it jets from southern plains. Pacific isn't that bad really and Atlantic is lining up for a 3-5 day period of slight -NAO. If we could sneak one through without getting sheared to death, we would be in business. Good 1000-500 thickness values hanging around AL/TN border so cold air is available for an slightly stronger system riding the gulf coastline for snow on the NW side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So at 102, you have a healthy shortwave entering Texas, lowering pressures in the northwest gulf. At the same time you have another fairly healthy shortwave just behind the southern action diving in from Montana, (the position behind the almost neutrally tilted trough in Texas looks good) At the same time you have a 50/50 low providing confluence (albeit not in an ideal spot), and the hints of a slightly negative NAO. What am i missing, other than surface maps that look like poo? haha I'd say ideally you'd like to have more northern and southern stream separation...get rid of that troughiness over the Great Lakes and replace it with confluent flow into a stronger 50/50 low east of Maine, with more ridging to the west/southwest of Greenland....that would give you a better cold air setup....but beggars can't be choosers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z UKMET looks like a hit between 120 & 144, nice to have the second most accurate global model not loosing it, may even track along the GA-Carolina coast this run, unsure without the in between, but slp over southern AL/MS at 120, to a couple hundred miles east of Norfolk at 144. That's a classic mid-south, northern AL,MS,GA and Carolinas snow track. Would be nice to have a moisture laden system. Many would be happy to take their chances with cold (enough) air with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'd say ideally you'd like to have more northern and southern stream separation...get rid of that troughiness over the Great Lakes and replace it with confluent flow into a stronger 50/50 low east of Maine, with more ridging to the west/southwest of Greenland....that would give you a better cold air setup....but beggars can't be choosers I guess. agree completely, but this is easily the best setup we have seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The UKMet reoriented... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z Canadian @ 144 looks eerily similar to the 00z run. 1005mb LP off the SC coast. 540 line really deep into louisiana. http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, the UKMet looks good with the southern wave. Looks to me like the surface low would be in S Bama at 120....again, I think that favors TN and NC mtns from a temp standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Temps are going to be an issue in NC outside the mts. Yeah, I know. Not supposed to worry about that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Don't think the Canadian is going to do it this run, looks a lot better than the GFS though. 1005mb low centered around 31N 78W at 144hrs (about 200 miles east of CHS). More separation between the streams compared to 0z, no phasing, or it takes place too late, and trough is not nearly as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12z Canadian @ 144 looks eerily similar to the 00z run. 1005mb LP off the SC coast. 540 line really deep into louisiana. http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif Check again, the 5400m isohypse is running through central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Don't think the Canadian is going to do it this run, looks a lot better than the GFS though. 1005mb low centered around 31N 78W at 144hrs (about 200 miles east of CHS). More separation between the streams compared to 0z, no phasing, or it takes place too late, and trough is not nearly as sharp. Northern stream energy is extending from WI down into LA/OK, while the southern stream sw is already off the SE coast. 0z run had these beginning to phase over the MS River Valley. Agreed, and this just goes to show you why it's so hard to predict winter weather. We are talking about a general look that is good, but when you get down to specifics, the features can be several hundred miles different in just one run 12 hours apart. We may have to get this to under 3 days before we really have a good idea of all the players and a general idea of how they will interact with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Check again, the 5400m isohypse is running through central MI. You are correct. Looks as though Canadian might give Arkansas and TN some snow? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 That's a classic mid-south, northern AL,MS,GA and Carolinas snow track. Would be nice to have a moisture laden system. Many would be happy to take their chances with cold (enough) air with that track. The 12Z Ukmet is not even close to the classic northern GA snow track. It is going through central AL. The northernmost classic N GA storm track is at least 200 miles south of this along the northern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Love the model consensus of some kind of southern low and we saw last winter how the models end up trending stronger with the southern stream systems. BUT, temps are going to be a huge issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 12Z Ukmet is not even close to the classic northern GA snow track. It is going through central AL. The northernmost classic N GA storm track is at least 200 miles south of this along the northern Gulf. Without the in between maps, I was envisioning a southern MS/AL track through southern GA and SC. That is what I using for the basis of a good track for northern GA. For your area................ classic I agree................ it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I don't know if this was shred before, but this is from wxrisk.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The NAO is not so bad (compared to a few days back). On average it looks to only go slightly positive and then back down to neutral. Hopeing this will continue to trend even more downwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Without the in between maps, I was envisioning a southern MS/AL track through southern GA and SC. That is what I using for the basis of a good track for northern GA. For your area................ classic I agree................ it's not. The 120 hour UKMET map has it already as far north as central AL (near Montgomery to Birmingham). For my area, Savannah, that is well over 300 miles too far north when over AL. However, even for Atlanta, that is at the very least about 200 miles too far north vs. a climo good track. Even Mobile is usually too far north for Atlanta. The best bet is passing south of Mobile in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 120 hour UKMET map has it already as far north as central AL (near Montgomery to Birmingham). For my area, Savannah, that is well over 300 miles too far north when over AL. However, even for Atlanta, that is at the very least about 200 miles too far north vs. a climo good track. Even Mobile is usually too far north for Atlanta. The best bet is passing south of Mobile in the Gulf. I like the 12z Goofy with the low well down into Fla. Not bad for a week out! I'd still like to see some all comsuming cold coming in behind, though, so if something actually falls it will be around for a week, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 120 hour UKMET map has it already as far north as central AL (near Montgomery to Birmingham). For my area, Savannah, that is well over 300 miles too far north when over AL. However, even for Atlanta, that is at the very least about 200 miles too far north vs. a climo good track. Even Mobile is usually too far north for Atlanta. The best bet is passing south of Mobile in the Gulf. After further review it has the look of being too far north even for parts of the mid-south, save for parts of the northern midsouth. I was going off of someone's post from earlier that said the low was in southern MS/AL without looking at the sideways UK maps myself. I refused to twist my head to the side to look at the UK out of fear of something going terribly wrong. haha It will be interesting to see what the Euro does with this low. I have a hard time believing the Euro just disintigrates this low as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice closed low south of Arizona at 96 on the Euro. 850mb 0 deg line goes from NE TN through S TN, then across N AR border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hard to tell where the Euro is going. @120 the low is in south LA and colder air is going into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looking pretty supressed at 120. 0 deg line in similar locale, but now cutting east-west through the heart of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 @132 low looks to take a track across Jacksonville, FL ...but no real cold air is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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