griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 0z euro looks good at 144. 1008 low crossing the Ga./Fla. border. 850's look good in NC. Of couse 2m temps are lacking but I don't know if I trust that this far out. Indeed. From a 500mb wave standpoint, it's not perfect, but it looks a lot better than our current system in Texas in that there's a bit of wave separation in the southern stream so we don't have a wave hot on its heels dampening our storm wave. Euro doesn't quite phase in northern stream vort energy, but the overall theme is there. Bigger concern to me is the cold air setup. We have nice northerly flow off of the departing storm over New England, and weak high pressure over the midwest, but no stout surface high ensuring a solid supply of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Referring to my post earlier, here is the next frame of the 0z CMC hr154: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The nowcast is ahead of schedule, though. Hey cg...I'm not sure which storm you're talking about? We're looking at the possible storm on Sunday (2/19). Are you talking about the Valentine's Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Indeed. From a 500mb wave standpoint, it's not perfect, but it looks a lot better than our current system in Texas in that there's a bit of wave separation in the southern stream so we don't have a wave hot on its heels dampening our storm wave. Euro doesn't quite phase in northern stream vort energy, but the overall theme is there. Bigger concern to me is the cold air setup. We have nice northerly flow off of the departing storm over New England, and weak high pressure over the midwest, but no stout surface high ensuring a solid supply of cold air. I agree griteater. I posted something above about this being a concern for me also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Don't know if it was mentioned earlier today, but the 12z JMA had a sfc low tracking from SE LA to off Chesapeake....based on that and the 850mb temps, it looked like a hit for the NC mtns. and E TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 2mAG temperatures gradually get colder (almost at freezing at the start) between 144-162 but the storm is departing while that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The upcoming pattern is actually a classic split flow pattern that would tend support a southern stream system with increased potential for snow. The -PNA is actually not that big of a deal as long as we also get a -NAO in tandem. We are seeing support from both the ECMWF and GFS of blocking developing southward of Greenland beyond 120 hours for a 3-4 day period which might provide enough time for a southern stream impulse to slide southward, providing interesting weather for the Southeast. Also at least for the next 5-7 days, the Pacific Jet will not re-establish itself thanks to this current MJO episode which still will be forcing increased ridging (although weaker than the past week or so) over the Eastern Pacific. If anything the last 2 weeks of February will likely be the best chance for any sort of wintery precipitation to be widespread across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hey cg...I'm not sure which storm you're talking about? We're looking at the possible storm on Sunday (2/19). Are you talking about the Valentine's Day storm? Yes, that's what I thought we were tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Thanks for your input in here phil...indeed, there is a weak west-based -NAO at 144 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just put up the morning discussion and video. Maybe our most interesting week of the winter.... Discussion and video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The MJO is rolling from Phase 8 to Phase 1 so it is in our favor at least for some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just put up the morning discussion and video. Maybe our most interesting week of the winter.... Discussion and video Nice update, as always. Appreciate the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nice update, as always. Appreciate the analysis. Sure thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I guess my problem here is it seems like the two features we need to be "rooting for" with regards to this system are working against each other. We need the 50-50 low to be weak/north enough to allow the low to strengthen and not be too suppressed. However, the 50-50 is also key to our cold air supply. The 0z Euro is STILL too suppressed with precip, but temps are ALREADY marginal. If the low trends north, won't temps trend warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 6z gfs was the perfect track for NC snowstorms. I really wish we had a little more cold air w/ this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I guess my problem here is it seems like the two features we need to be "rooting for" with regards to this system are working against each other. We need the 50-50 low to be weak/north enough to allow the low to strengthen and not be too suppressed. However, the 50-50 is also key to our cold air supply. The 0z Euro is STILL too suppressed with precip, but temps are ALREADY marginal. If the low trends north, won't temps trend warmer? Possibly. But if the system trends stronger, it would pull in more cold air toward the center. The Euro gets very diffuse up at 500mb as it moves into the SE. The phasing is better on the 0z Canadian....vorts phase as they approach the MS River. If the southern vort holds on stronger and longer, it would likely be a colder solution with more precip. It's almost always threading the needle around here.....you have to be pleased at this point just to have some real players on the field. Will it all work out? Odds are against it just in the overall sense. But to me, this is the first real potential many have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here are two 500mb maps to go along with what I said above... Canadian: European: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 6z gfs was the perfect track for NC snowstorms. I really wish we had a little more cold air w/ this system. you may want to look at Robert's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I guess my problem here is it seems like the two features we need to be "rooting for" with regards to this system are working against each other. We need the 50-50 low to be weak/north enough to allow the low to strengthen and not be too suppressed. However, the 50-50 is also key to our cold air supply. The 0z Euro is STILL too suppressed with precip, but temps are ALREADY marginal. If the low trends north, won't temps trend warmer? I guess what I'm hoping for is that in these systems the northern shield is always larger than modeled (usually anyways). So even if we don't get close to the perfect track and it's suppressed just a tad then if the usual trend stands that northern shield should expand enough to at least throw us a bone. I would think anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 6z gfs was the perfect track for NC snowstorms. I really wish we had a little more cold air w/ this system. I would not sweat temps too much at this range, as long as it is close we have a chance. If you remember the last event, Feb 10& 11th, it was modeled warmer at this range compared to what actually verified. I think is was not until about 120 hrs, day 5, that we started to see the cold air come into place. Sure that was -rn at best here, but just saying don't sweat the 850's quite yet, and let the boundary layer stuff get worked out inside of 72hrs. I will say that it is somewhat unusual to see the gfs/ecmwf/jma etc... all pickup a storm almost simultaneously. Granted, the waffling has started, but uncommon to see what took place Friday on the 12z runs. It is also somewhat rare to see most of the guidance steadfast in bringing out a gulf system from 6-7 days out. Usually we see glimpses of a storm from a couple models at intermittent runs, but consistency at this range is much harder to come by, and has far more potential imo than something that pops up inside day 5, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Possibly. But if the system trends stronger, it would pull in more cold air toward the center. The Euro gets very diffuse up at 500mb as it moves into the SE. The phasing is better on the 0z Canadian....vorts phase as they approach the MS River. If the southern vort holds on stronger and longer, it would likely be a colder solution with more precip. It's almost always threading the needle around here.....you have to be pleased at this point just to have some real players on the field. Will it all work out? Odds are against it just in the overall sense. But to me, this is the first real potential many have seen. Thanks for the input Matt! Always great having you around and also awesome video as always. I'll def. be watching the models now to see if the southern energy can amp up more once a phase occurs (if it does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Thanks, Matt -- I agree with you on threading the needle. The problem is, this is the kind of setup we might see 6 or 8 times in a typical winter and hope to get lucky once. That batting average won't do this winter! Possibly. But if the system trends stronger, it would pull in more cold air toward the center. The Euro gets very diffuse up at 500mb as it moves into the SE. The phasing is better on the 0z Canadian....vorts phase as they approach the MS River. If the southern vort holds on stronger and longer, it would likely be a colder solution with more precip. It's almost always threading the needle around here.....you have to be pleased at this point just to have some real players on the field. Will it all work out? Odds are against it just in the overall sense. But to me, this is the first real potential many have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wrote up a little discussion this morning for thos interested. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/light-snow-across-parts-of-the-southeast-tonight-bigger-deal-this-weekend This is not a bad synoptic setup for a southeast event, actually the best this winter which isnt saying much. But yes, low level cold air will be the big question. This event seems like a classic late February event, where there will be a narrow band of heavy wet snow on the northwest fringe of the system with someone gettng a cold rain at 33 and 20-30 miles northwest someone getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Thanks Matt and Allan for the info. I'm atleast happy there is something to track in this so called winter we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wrote up a little discussion this morning for thos interested. http://www.examiner....al-this-weekend This is not a bad synoptic setup for a southeast event, actually the best this winter which isnt saying much. But yes, low level cold air will be the big question. This event seems like a classic late February event, where there will be a narrow band of heavy wet snow on the northwest fringe of the system with someone gettng a cold rain at 33 and 20-30 miles northwest someone getting hammered. Great read as usual and always love how detailed your explanation is, such that even someone like me knows exactly what to be watching over the coming days. And this winter I'll take my chances with this set up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wrote up a little discussion this morning for thos interested. http://www.examiner....al-this-weekend This is not a bad synoptic setup for a southeast event, actually the best this winter which isnt saying much. But yes, low level cold air will be the big question. This event seems like a classic late February event, where there will be a narrow band of heavy wet snow on the northwest fringe of the system with someone gettng a cold rain at 33 and 20-30 miles northwest someone getting hammered. I think the setup for this weekend has a really good look. The Nogaps has a gulf low in addition to most of the other modeling. This far out, that's a really strong signal. As an aside............Thanks Allan for your contribution to the board. I know you have had a full plate and haven't been able to post here as much, but when you do, it's always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I would not sweat temps too much at this range, as long as it is close we have a chance. If you remember the last event, Feb 10& 11th, it was modeled warmer at this range compared to what actually verified. I think is was not until about 120 hrs, day 5, that we started to see the cold air come into place. Sure that was -rn at best here, but just saying don't sweat the 850's quite yet, and let the boundary layer stuff get worked out inside of 72hrs. I will say that it is somewhat unusual to see the gfs/ecmwf/jma etc... all pickup a storm almost simultaneously. Granted, the waffling has started, but uncommon to see what took place Friday on the 12z runs. It is also somewhat rare to see most of the guidance steadfast in bringing out a gulf system from 6-7 days out. Usually we see glimpses of a storm from a couple models at intermittent runs, but consistency at this range is much harder to come by, and has far more potential imo than something that pops up inside day 5, just saying... You're right about that, much like the gulf low advertised the other week on the GFS for every run (which fizzled out) now we have multiple models agreeing a good bit out. It will be fun just to see the waffling on it. I'm sure will get a run or two that just blows up and buries us in snow. Then go back to a suppressed look. In some ways the Christmas storm had good model agreement for the basics far out, the question was always on the timing of the phase IIRC which led to some pretty crazy model madness for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think the setup for this weekend has a really good look. The Nogaps has a gulf low in addition to most of the other modeling. This far out, that's a really strong signal. As an aside............Thanks Allan for your contribution to the board. I know you have had a full plate and haven't been able to post here as much, but when you do, it's always appreciated. Thanks! You guys are welcome, I wish I could post more, but life and work and the fact that this winter has been a big bore has kept me from posting too much. Rest assured though when there is significant weather (especially snow) , I will post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 12Z GFS still not there, but there are so damn many shortwaves on the map, I don't know how it could possibly get the interaction right this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I am not buying the squashed piece o junk the 12z GFS is portraying. I suppose it could happen, but a higher likelyhood is that it's playing to it's progressive and suppressed nature here. The shortwave looked great at 102 in Texas, then poof........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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