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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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The models don't have this in focus yet. My guess is that cold air will be lacking, a system will develop, and go well west of what anyone is forecasting at the last minute.

you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly
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I think this is our biggest problem in the long range. If a healthy -PNA verifies we are fooked for winter in the SE. We are running out of time and this is not good.

Agreed, winter is over, the AO going positive too. This weekend has very little chance of producing, the LR runs are very bleak after this day 7. Bring on spring.....officially.

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you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly

I mean well west of the Apps. Why would I hope for that? I have watched many systems from 5-6 days out go well west this winter. My scientific reasoning is just that - the pattern is repeating itself. Very few systems have gone OTS but Oklahoma has been pounded all winter. There have been a few runs to Kansas with this system so far. So, please stop w/ the scientific reasoning stuff - it's not my fault winter has been tough in terms of snow. Easy....

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I think this is our biggest problem in the long range. If a healthy -PNA verifies we are fooked for winter in the SE. We are running out of time and this is not good.

How long has this been advertised? It could double dip and go + again right?

pna.sprd2.gif

Like it did in mid Jan...it's currently at the highest it's been all winter, what goes up must come down no? I'm not scared...yet.

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FWIW, Canadian shows a southern slider between 120 & 144. 1006-1004mb SLP in the GOM crossing northern FL.

Maybe phased? Can't tell from black and white.

http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif

Not a slider... That's what you call a phased HECS to BECS bomb that's about to go off at 144..... Check out the comma head on that thing.... Alas, its the cmc

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Not a slider... That's what you call a phased HECS to BECS bomb that's about to go off at 144..... Check out the comma head on that thing.... Alas, its the cmc

Thought it looked like a major phase, but couldn't really tell. Pretty big comma head. Sure to send weather weenies on here into delirium since it's only 5-6 days away. H5 looks beautiful @ 144. Boom.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

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Thought it looked like a major phase, but couldn't really tell. Pretty big comma head. Sure to send weather weenies on here into delirium since it's only 5-6 days away. H5 looks beautiful @ 144. Boom.

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg

I thought it was pretty obvious it's a phase from energy left over from the cutoff and the northern stream starting over OK then around TN, either way next frame goes boom.

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I thought it was pretty obvious it's a phase from energy left over from the cutoff and the northern stream starting over OK then around TN, either way next frame goes boom.

I was checking out the canadian also. It's nice to finally have a model showing some good news. Now we need to get the euro and gfs on board.

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UKMet is a little slower than the CMC, but at 144, it has a 1005mb surface low in southern Louisiana, with the 500mb shortwave axis on the OK/AR border. It looks like it would bring the surface low across southern GA. Hard to tell on the cold air, but it looks decent.

Good news: we've already passed the 48 hr rule.

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0z euro looks good at 144. 1008 low crossing the Ga./Fla. border. 850's look good in NC. Of couse 2m temps are lacking but I don't know if I trust that this far out.

How's it looking at the SC border? It's pretty tough to get by for whatever reason. I remember watching the radar a few years back and the snow literally stopped perfectly at the border.

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I believe we're going to have to thread the needle w/ this storm. There's not a lot cold air around and the timing of this storm is important. It this were to come thru during the daytime hours I think we would have a hard time getting snow.

The nowcast is ahead of schedule, though.

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