beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This feels like a lose-lose to me -- either the 50-50 is strong and shunts the system to our south and weakens it, or the 50-50 is weaker/more to the north and we have cold air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The models don't have this in focus yet. My guess is that cold air will be lacking, a system will develop, and go well west of what anyone is forecasting at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 i like the set up this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The models don't have this in focus yet. My guess is that cold air will be lacking, a system will develop, and go well west of what anyone is forecasting at the last minute. you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 a system will develop, and go well west Not with the amount of confluence showing up. The storm is a healthy one into Texas, so at the very least looks to be something fun to track. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think this is our biggest problem in the long range. If a healthy -PNA verifies we are fooked for winter in the SE. We are running out of time and this is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think this is our biggest problem in the long range. If a healthy -PNA verifies we are fooked for winter in the SE. We are running out of time and this is not good. Agreed, winter is over, the AO going positive too. This weekend has very little chance of producing, the LR runs are very bleak after this day 7. Bring on spring.....officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 you should preface with "you hope". Any scientific reasoning for this proposal? I doubt we see this cut up the apps. There may not even be a system. But the most west I could see this is a coastal runner with rain because the 5050 is modeled too strongly I mean well west of the Apps. Why would I hope for that? I have watched many systems from 5-6 days out go well west this winter. My scientific reasoning is just that - the pattern is repeating itself. Very few systems have gone OTS but Oklahoma has been pounded all winter. There have been a few runs to Kansas with this system so far. So, please stop w/ the scientific reasoning stuff - it's not my fault winter has been tough in terms of snow. Easy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Not with the amount of confluence showing up. The storm is a healthy one into Texas, so at the very least looks to be something fun to track. JMO We are talking about different systems I believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Am I misreading the 500mb maps or does 18z look close to setting up a triple phase @138? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Am I misreading the 500mb maps or does 18z look close to setting up a triple phase @138? LOL, yeah the are several pieces of energy but there isn't a clean phase, if the southern stream would remain strong it could be a weenie model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 @165 it's close to some coastal redevelopment...man if those pieces of energy could have linked up...it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This run continues to sheer out our low and keeps it suppressed. I'll keep watching until Thursday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 too far away to know what it will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I think this is our biggest problem in the long range. If a healthy -PNA verifies we are fooked for winter in the SE. We are running out of time and this is not good. How long has this been advertised? It could double dip and go + again right? Like it did in mid Jan...it's currently at the highest it's been all winter, what goes up must come down no? I'm not scared...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Wish I lived back in the coastal plain of nc for this weekend... Got a feeling that northern stream is gonna catch our gulf sw just in time for a hit there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 50's again for Charlotte this week Goodbye cold weather, hello flowers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 FWIW, Canadian shows a southern slider between 120 & 144. 1006-1004mb SLP in the GOM crossing northern FL. Maybe phased? Can't tell from black and white. http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 FWIW, Canadian shows a southern slider between 120 & 144. 1006-1004mb SLP in the GOM crossing northern FL. Maybe phased? Can't tell from black and white. http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif Not a slider... That's what you call a phased HECS to BECS bomb that's about to go off at 144..... Check out the comma head on that thing.... Alas, its the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not a slider... That's what you call a phased HECS to BECS bomb that's about to go off at 144..... Check out the comma head on that thing.... Alas, its the cmc Thought it looked like a major phase, but couldn't really tell. Pretty big comma head. Sure to send weather weenies on here into delirium since it's only 5-6 days away. H5 looks beautiful @ 144. Boom. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Thought it looked like a major phase, but couldn't really tell. Pretty big comma head. Sure to send weather weenies on here into delirium since it's only 5-6 days away. H5 looks beautiful @ 144. Boom. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg I thought it was pretty obvious it's a phase from energy left over from the cutoff and the northern stream starting over OK then around TN, either way next frame goes boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I thought it was pretty obvious it's a phase from energy left over from the cutoff and the northern stream starting over OK then around TN, either way next frame goes boom. I was checking out the canadian also. It's nice to finally have a model showing some good news. Now we need to get the euro and gfs on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 UKMet is a little slower than the CMC, but at 144, it has a 1005mb surface low in southern Louisiana, with the 500mb shortwave axis on the OK/AR border. It looks like it would bring the surface low across southern GA. Hard to tell on the cold air, but it looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 UKMet is a little slower than the CMC, but at 144, it has a 1005mb surface low in southern Louisiana, with the 500mb shortwave axis on the OK/AR border. It looks like it would bring the surface low across southern GA. Hard to tell on the cold air, but it looks decent. Good news: we've already passed the 48 hr rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 0z euro looks good at 144. 1008 low crossing the Ga./Fla. border. 850's look good in NC. Of couse 2m temps are lacking but I don't know if I trust that this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 0z euro looks good at 144. 1008 low crossing the Ga./Fla. border. 850's look good in NC. Of couse 2m temps are lacking but I don't know if I trust that this far out. How's it looking at the SC border? It's pretty tough to get by for whatever reason. I remember watching the radar a few years back and the snow literally stopped perfectly at the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I should also mention 850's look good in N. Ga. and the N. SC....At 150 we have a 1008 low off the SC coast. Good amt of precip in SC and SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 at 156 the low is heading NE and ots. Some leftover precip in from around RDU and eastern NC. A good run tonight from the euro. It brought the low a lot further north this run. I'm liking the trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I believe we're going to have to thread the needle w/ this storm. There's not a lot cold air around and the timing of this storm is important. If this were to come through during the daytime hours I think we would have a hard time getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I believe we're going to have to thread the needle w/ this storm. There's not a lot cold air around and the timing of this storm is important. It this were to come thru during the daytime hours I think we would have a hard time getting snow. The nowcast is ahead of schedule, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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