burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gfs ens. Mean is on the warm side and doesn't appear to have the gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gfs ens. Mean is on the warm side and doesn't appear to have the gulf low. Someone should tell Brad Panovich to pull back on thinking there is going to be flurries in the Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Someone should tell Brad Panovich to pull back on thinking there is going to be flurries in the Charlotte area. Why? He is a professional and there is still plenty of support that in the 7 - 8 day time frame wintry shinnanigans can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 00z Euro is faster with the low and keeps it suppressed it's crossing FL at 156 it sheers out a little...temps aren't exactly great with freezing line around the NC/VA border and 850's further north. Good news is it still has the low though so we'll see where it goes from there at 162 it's turning the corner but just doesn't look like there is anything to keep cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 @168 it's OTS...part of the problem is there is a low in and around Indiana keeps temps too warm. Well hopefully the ENS will keep hope alive I'm off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Of course our system then decides to wind up some more at 192 and pull in cold air...when it's out there in the Atlantic. At least the Euro is staying on its southern system idea. We can worry about timing and temperature in the latter if it's still depicting it from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Fwiw 6z has cold air in place for NC and a very suppressed track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 2nd straight day that the GFS Super Ensemble Mean 500mb analogs are honking a strong -NAO look with ridging off the west coast and wave/negative anomaly in the southern plains, for Feb 17-21. Psalm's post from the HPC disco talked about this. In looking at the listed 500mb analog dates on the GFS SuperEns composite, at least 5 of the 10 were closely tied to previous winter storm events in the southeast: 02/24/1952 (analog date) - 02/26/1952 (4.0 in snow at CLT) 02/15/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT) 02/05/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT) 02/10/1964 (analog date) - same as previous line 02/19/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet) And here's the Canadian Analog composite, also for Feb 17-21, which has an even stronger, west-based -NAO look. And the analog date matches on the Canadian composite: 02/19/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT) 02/06/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT) 02/09/1980 (analog date) - 02/04-10/1980 (7.3 in snow over 7 day period at CLT) 02/20/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet) Question: How reliable are these when no operational models support this look? I keep thinking that if this look is to verify, we'll see the operationals come around, but they are not in this camp at all...unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Question: How reliable are these when no operational models support this look? I keep thinking that if this look is to verify, we'll see the operationals come around, but they are not in this camp at all...unless I'm missing something. They must be pretty reliable if Wes is using them for a lot of his long range forecasts. Since they are comprised of all the runs of the GFS Ensemble why would you need operational runs to back it up? Since it's basically saying the Ensembles are all in agreement on this, I would think I would prefer it over any operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yeah I think they would carry a lot more weight if the other op and ensemble models were on board with that look. It's at least something to look for, but the other model support is not there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Maybe I'm not doing the right search but there is surprisingly very little information about the Super Ensemble Mean (at least publicly) one thing I did see is that it did seem to catch on the big changes that ended up effecting Europe a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 ^Yeah, they might be very reliable...I just don't have any experience with them. It seems like there should be some operational support. This gets pretty heavily into ensemble forecasting, but from what I understand (and that may not be worth much), the Operational is the most skilled member of it's ensemble group. That's why I'd like to see that support. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Our low on the 12z looks much more robust compared to 6z...not sure how we're going to keep the cold locked in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Our low on the 12z looks much more robust compared to 6z...not sure how we're going to keep the cold locked in though. Looks like there's a 1024 high coming out of central Canada moving SE. Hopefully that'll be our cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looks like there's a 1024 high coming out of central Canada moving SE. Hopefully that'll be our cold air. It doesn't really lock any cold air in, and then @183 our low appears to be headed to Cuba and is loosing steam fast...might be what we want at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The low in the gulf just fizzles out and looks like all the energy is transfered to the system coming out of the 4 corners region. Typical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It doesn't really lock any cold air in, and then @183 our low appears to be headed to Cuba and is loosing steam fast...might be what we want at this point though. Yep, it doesn't continue it's way south....stops in south Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The low in the gulf just fizzles out and looks like all the energy is transfered to the system coming out of the 4 corners region. Typical! Yep almost literally goes *POOF*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 There’s stll a lot to be determined with this system. The 12z CMC doesn’t even have a closed low in the southwest at 84 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Sure looks like there will be a storm. Surprised given the possible west based -NAO that the GFS isn't showing an artic high in place during this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yep almost literally goes *POOF*. Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof." anyone saying " this is a no go " over 7 days out is not very intelligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof." Let me also add that things can change in a heartbeat. Not cliffdiving just yet not when its Sunday afternoon and this won't come until Tuesday morning or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 DT not buying the idea of the 12z GFS squashing the southern stream energy...he stated that the polar vortex is too strong on the run and is a bias of the GFS model, therefor the flow should be more relaxed to allow the southern stream to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gulf low looks good at 156 on the 12z euro. 850's are very close but 2m temps aren't so good. Still too far out to trust 2m temps imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well the Euro doesn't look bad. Low is a little suppressed or starts sheering out @162..appears enough cold air could be in place for atleast I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Gulf low looks good at 156 on the 12z euro. 850's are very close but 2m temps aren't so good. Still too far out to trust 2m temps imo. IMHO this is a good look for us. Temps aren't bad @168 but of course the storm is OTS...but it was suppressed which is kind of what we want right now. Keep hope alive folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 So close at 162 and 168 but slides a little too far east. Good sign though and looks to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Through 144 on the ECMWF, 1010mb slp south of LA, looks to be from the southern stream, also some energy coming in through the plains, this may be a good run... Unsure Souther slider , 168 well east of CHS, not real amplification, dampening wave with meager slp, at least it still has a system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looks similar to the GFS in relation to a robust shortwave that gets sheared out by incredible confluence in the northeast, just looking at a glance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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