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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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00z Euro is faster with the low and keeps it suppressed it's crossing FL at 156 it sheers out a little...temps aren't exactly great with freezing line around the NC/VA border and 850's further north. Good news is it still has the low though so we'll see where it goes from there at 162 it's turning the corner but just doesn't look like there is anything to keep cold air in place.

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2nd straight day that the GFS Super Ensemble Mean 500mb analogs are honking a strong -NAO look with ridging off the west coast and wave/negative anomaly in the southern plains, for Feb 17-21. Psalm's post from the HPC disco talked about this.

In looking at the listed 500mb analog dates on the GFS SuperEns composite, at least 5 of the 10 were closely tied to previous winter storm events in the southeast:

02/24/1952 (analog date) - 02/26/1952 (4.0 in snow at CLT)

02/15/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT)

02/05/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT)

02/10/1964 (analog date) - same as previous line

02/19/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet)

500hgtcompsup610.gif

And here's the Canadian Analog composite, also for Feb 17-21, which has an even stronger, west-based -NAO look.

And the analog date matches on the Canadian composite:

02/19/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT)

02/06/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT)

02/09/1980 (analog date) - 02/04-10/1980 (7.3 in snow over 7 day period at CLT)

02/20/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet)

500hghtcompcan610.gif

Question: How reliable are these when no operational models support this look? I keep thinking that if this look is to verify, we'll see the operationals come around, but they are not in this camp at all...unless I'm missing something.

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Question: How reliable are these when no operational models support this look? I keep thinking that if this look is to verify, we'll see the operationals come around, but they are not in this camp at all...unless I'm missing something.

They must be pretty reliable if Wes is using them for a lot of his long range forecasts. Since they are comprised of all the runs of the GFS Ensemble why would you need operational runs to back it up? Since it's basically saying the Ensembles are all in agreement on this, I would think I would prefer it over any operational run.

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^Yeah, they might be very reliable...I just don't have any experience with them. It seems like there should be some operational support. This gets pretty heavily into ensemble forecasting, but from what I understand (and that may not be worth much), the Operational is the most skilled member of it's ensemble group. That's why I'd like to see that support. We'll see what happens. :)

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Yep almost literally goes *POOF*.

Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof."

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Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof."

anyone saying " this is a no go " over 7 days out is not very intelligent.
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Last night when I was talking about someone should talk to Brad about his weather forecast. It was only saying this because the trend was warmer and warmer the last few runs. Also after talking to Jeff Crum a few days ago he even said this was a no go. And now in your own words "Poof."

Let me also add that things can change in a heartbeat. Not cliffdiving just yet not when its Sunday afternoon and this won't come until Tuesday morning or later.

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Gulf low looks good at 156 on the 12z euro. 850's are very close but 2m temps aren't so good. Still too far out to trust 2m temps imo.

IMHO this is a good look for us. Temps aren't bad @168 but of course the storm is OTS...but it was suppressed which is kind of what we want right now. Keep hope alive folks.

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