burgertime Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yep. Definitely your traditional DGEX fantasy look. Now that is the DGEX we're used to! That should come with the world's biggest bolder of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 By the way GFS ENS Mean keeps the same basic idea with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Now that is the DGEX we're used to! That should come with the world's biggest bolder of salt. That can't be right! Not suppressed enough. There is nothing down here They need to come back with a better look for everyone! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yep. Definitely your traditional DGEX fantasy look. You can always count on the dgex snowfall maps to lift your spirits (8-10 inches for MBY). If this were to verify, it would certainly help to make-up for the crappy winter we have had to endure. Heck, I will be happy with half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 That can't be right! Not suppressed enough. There is nothing down here They need to come back with a better look for everyone! T If last year is any indication it will stay suppressed and blast you guys....if it in fact even happens. No hurt in hoping at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The 18z individual GFS members aren’t for the faint of heart. 4 or 5 of them show major hits for the interior southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 It's an ENS member on 18z but we can dream in NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 GEM ens @ 180 from the 12z run today, I like the fact most have a pretty strong lp in SE Canada. http://www.weatherof...ime=12&Type=pnm H5's support either a closed low or robust sw moving through N NE into SE Canada between 168 and 192, similar to the EC ens mean. That is important in that helps build ridging into the Labrador Straight as well as funneling cold into the Eastern US. Usually one of the ingredients for a big storm, and for us in the SE we want it displaced south somewhat, for a more suppressed track rather than one that clobbers the 95 corridor. The models are obviously picking up on the potential and given a few key ingredients, 50-50, ejecting cutoff out of the desert sw, maybe some northern stream coming into the mix later, easy to see why. This was the 12z euro @ 180hrs, 500mb vort. Southern stream energy in LA, ejected out of Baja as a closed low. Northern stream parcel over the OH Valley, phasing would be late, and I don't know if we want to see a phase at this range. Most important is that closed 500 mb near the Bay of Fundy, shift that north just a hair and the OTS track we saw on this run would have been a big time hit for parts of the SE. Inter-model agreement to a certain extent today, now we just have to wait 7 more days and see if it holds in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For us in middle to western third of the SE region, we need the potential slp to track inland through the SC Piedmont, over Charlotte, and inside of Hatteras. W/ the GOM warm, it should be open for business if a mechanism can turn this up the coast. Definitely has my attention at this point. The NAO is taking a dip during that time frame. Just have to wonder if the pattern in Europe translates to the Eastern US as it does many times - though not to that extreme most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Who knows if it's right, but this is a strong, west-based -NAO look on today's update.....5 day mean for the period Feb 16-20. 2nd straight day that the GFS Super Ensemble Mean 500mb analogs are honking a strong -NAO look with ridging off the west coast and wave/negative anomaly in the southern plains, for Feb 17-21. Psalm's post from the HPC disco talked about this. In looking at the listed 500mb analog dates on the GFS SuperEns composite, at least 5 of the 10 were closely tied to previous winter storm events in the southeast: 02/24/1952 (analog date) - 02/26/1952 (4.0 in snow at CLT) 02/15/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT) 02/05/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT) 02/10/1964 (analog date) - same as previous line 02/19/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet) And here's the Canadian Analog composite, also for Feb 17-21, which has an even stronger, west-based -NAO look. And the analog date matches on the Canadian composite: 02/19/1960 (analog date) - 02/13-14/1960 (3.3 in snow at CLT) 02/06/1964 (analog date) - 02/08/1964 (0.2 in snow at CLT) 02/09/1980 (analog date) - 02/04-10/1980 (7.3 in snow over 7 day period at CLT) 02/20/1987 (analog date) - 02/16/1987 (1.9 in sleet at CLT...believe RDU got like 6 inches of pure sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Comparing 0z GFS to 12z run, at 111 hours on the 5h maps, looks like all the main features are south and west of the 12z position -- the SW closed low as well as troughing over continental U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yes, closed low slower to eject out, it appears. EDIT: Actually retrogrades from between 123 and 129 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For us in middle to western third of the SE region, we need the potential slp to track inland through the SC Piedmont, over Charlotte, and inside of Hatteras. W/ the GOM warm, it should be open for business if a mechanism can turn this up the coast. Definitely has my attention at this point. The NAO is taking a dip during that time frame. Just have to wonder if the pattern in Europe translates to the Eastern US as it does many times - though not to that extreme most likely. Well I have to say the 94% of the people on this website are hoping for this to not cut inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Yes, closed low slower to eject out, it appears. Yep, through 132, still a couple hundred miles west of the Baja, 12z had it comin into extreme NW Mlexico at same time... Going to be some differences this run. More troughieness along the east coast, much deeper compared to 12z, that should be our 50-50 eventually, energy finally coming out at 144, 2 contour closed low near the central Baja, 12z was an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hmmm. Not sure our trough is going to survive in time for the storm .... Yep, through 132, still a couple hundred miles west of the Baja, 12z had it comin into extreme NW Mlexico at same time... Going to be some differences this run. More troughieness along the east coast, much deeper compared to 12z, that should be our 50-50 eventually, energy finally coming out at 144, 2 contour closed low near the central Baja, 12z was an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At 165 high pressure over Tallahassee -- that's no good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL -- our Gulf Low just took a detour through Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Our SE coastal went to the central Plains . Junk run, hopefully the ensembles tell a different story, prefer them at day 6 and 7 compared to the operatinals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 No cold air on this run much like the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL -- our Gulf Low just took a detour through Kansas. At-least our 50-50 got locked in for a couple days, still there at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 At 165 high pressure over Tallahassee -- that's no good.... Yeah, that's not good at all. It ends up sliding right off the coast and bringing us some warm to go w/ it. I want to know where our high to the north has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Pretty disconcerting to see the cold air go "poof" -- I've seen that movie before this winter. We need MULTIPLE runs showing suppression before I'll have any confidence enough cold air will be around to make this work. Our SE coastal went to the central Plains . Junk run, hopefully the ensembles tell a different story, prefer them at day 6 and 7 compared to the operatinals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 LOL -- our Gulf Low just took a detour through Kansas. Then magically it has it back in the gulf at 189. I don't know if the gfs know which wave to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For you golfers, following computer models this year is like the PBFU -- everytime there is a good model run, it's followed by a double bogey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 For you golfers, following computer models this year is like the PBFU -- everytime there is a good model run, it's followed by a double bogey. Lol..isn't that the truth. It'll be interesting to see what the euro does tonight. According to Allan the ensembles for the 12z looked bullish for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Well I have to say the 94% of the people on this website are hoping for this to not cut inland Lol - doesn't matter on the 0z unless you live in Topeka. FWIW many of the strongest snowstorms that affect the largest portion of the Eastern pop. US take a track inside Hatteras. The much overused '93 superstorm did such. It's a rare signature to spot on a weather model, but we, west of the Apps, secretly look for it at this time of year....Lousiana to south Georgia to Columbia to west of Hatteras w/ a high over Michigan. Many on the fall line watch for CAD. We watch for Nor'easters that cut ever so slightly inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Don't like the look of the Canadian, although with b/w hard for me to read. Appears to be a completely different solution. Doesn't appear to have all the energy held back in the SW, but on the other hand, no high pressure to lock in our cold air -- at 120 hours -- big low over Illinois! This run doesn't help us at all. I'll be shocked if the Euro doesn't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Unless the NAO is negative it will cut west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Canadian at 144 -- double barrel low over Lake Huron and Cape Cod. This run is so far from a winter storm for us, it's laughable. Good night all -- the 0z Euro is like "The Godfather" -- I know it by heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Canadian at 144 -- double barrel low over Lake Huron and Cape Cod. This run is so far from a winter storm for us, it's laughable. Good night all -- the 0z Euro is like "The Godfather" -- I know it by heart. LOL. The Euro has the same look, there is more energy out west which is the "potential" system at day 8-9 storm. We need the day 6 low over the NE to blow up to give us a 50/50 low which will help beat down the SE ridge for the next system. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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