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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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That's a nice sized cutoff over the southwest at day 6. Hard to imagine it being suppressed off the southeast coast like the euro is showing. Heading into the latter half of February, that seems incredibly unlikely. When you factor in the cutoff over the lakes/northeast developing ahead of it, this may be our only chance this winter for a big ticket item.

post-233-0-92002400-1328987275.gif

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Looks almost identical to the 12z European, @ 192hrs, 1004 mb low about 200-250 miles east of Jacksonville. OTS, but not far off from a big hit, would much rather see a slightly suppressed track at this range compared to one curving up the EC.

Agreed: If MBY misses I prefer it be due to OTS, atleast you guys would benefit. By the way the seasonal drought officially ended today. I saw about 6 or 7 flurries. Guess I'll qualify it and I still think a trace/dusting minimum atleast will show up before winter ends..

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From the HPC this afternoon....extended forecast disco.....hmmmmmm....very interesting :whistle::popcorn:

OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENS RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF CONTINUE TO

INDICATE KEEPING A POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTH OF GREENLAND LATE

PERIOD. COMPOSITE ANALOG RUNS OF ALL OF THESE CENTER THIS ANOMALY

FARTHER WEST AS A WEST BASED NEG NAO OVER DAVIS STRAIT OR

LABRADOR. IF THIS OCCURS THE STORM TRACK WOULD BE FORCED FARTHER

SOUTH WHICH INCLUDES THE ONE MID PERIOD AND ANY POSSIBLE EJECTION

OF ENERGY LATE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS

IDEA HAS POPPED UP RECENTLY BY SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS

INCLUDING ECMWF/CMC AND JMA AT VARIOUS TIMES. LONGER TERM D+11S

SHIFT THIS ANOMALY EASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE. BEST BET FOR NOW TO

FOLLOW AN INCREASED BLEND OF ENSEMBLES UNTIL GUIDANCE SETTLES DOWN.

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There is definitely nice potential day 7-9 on the euro/gfs. Strong looking overrunnign potential. Still think there is the chance for a weak event tuesday around the Carolinas/N GA. At this point the airmass may be too dry though. Hard to say.

Looks like a Southern Slider, might be time to start paying attention

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I think i need to join you guys in discussions again. I have about had it in the new york metro threads. There is no moderation, weenies post idiotic comments at will and are disrespectful to others.

Hey NCSU (I guess it's SBU now), I was wondering if you were still around. Good to hear from you again. Any info you give around here would be welcomed!

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Kffc has sleet/rain to rain down here Mon. night, Tues. morn. With 850's acceptable for the first 1/4 inch, at little colder push lasting longer, or earlier onset, it could get interesting, but still under a half inch qpf for the event when several days ago it was nearing an inch. I hope the storms out past the next one, manage to get a good tap, and run under and into some strong cold air with decent, not fading, precip. It doesn't do much good for stuff to fall if it isn't going to stick around. After this winter, so far, a good fall and a hard freeze after the event is what makes the world go round. None of this namby pamby melty stuff...gone before it has fallen good :) T

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I think i need to join you guys in discussions again. I have about had it in the new york metro threads. There is no moderation, weenies post idiotic comments at will and are disrespectful to others.

Welcome back! You know how I feel as you've always been on of my favorite red taggers. We don't mind you talking a little NE weather!

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I think i need to join you guys in discussions again. I have about had it in the new york metro threads. There is no moderation, weenies post idiotic comments at will and are disrespectful to others.

Welcome back.... "long time no see".. Most of us are still here but we're all down-and-out over this poor excuse for a winter. Bring us some mojo.......What's your thoughts on the LR pattern?

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That snowfall map should be fun to see. The 18z GFS looks a bit stronger with it's cutoff at 500mb out west but a littler further south. Should be an interesting run down the line.

Fire up the band, time to dust this crappy winter off and see if we can find a diamond at the tail end.

18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county186.gif

What a mess... :D

18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county192.gif

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Fire up the band, time to dust this crappy winter off and see if we can find a diamond at the tail end.

:guitar: Knocking on the backdoor with that one. Always get scared with those looks with the convection...has the classic slam I-85 look though for sure...then hopefully it can track just far enough south to really slam you guys.

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Storm still there on the 18z gfs but warm. We didn't have a high to the north. There was a high right around Va./NC but slid off the coast right before precip arrived. With it being so far out I'm just happy seeing a storm during that timeframe. I'll worry w/ the cold later.

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Storm still there on the 18z gfs but warm. We didn't have a high to the north. There was a high right around Va./NC but slid off the coast right before precip arrived. With it being so far out I'm just happy seeing a storm during that timeframe. I'll worry w/ the cold later.

Yea guess the cold never was there to be chased off. We'll get the flips and flops and as always this will come down to some timing and good luck.

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My thoughts are that its good theres a storm being modeled but i would exercise caution with getting excited. ALL models have struggled this winter and there are many factors that can always go wrong in the SE. Lets just keep watching it with caution, but im sure you all know this with how bad winter has been. Hey, it snowed here today, but barely was able to accumulate due to the majority of it being light and temperatures never really getting below 33. I have only seen about 5 or so inches this winter.

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If theres a PV or 50/50 across SE canada, like the Euro is trying to show, then i would doubt it tracks so far north. But we need to watch those features in future runs.

18z GFS has sensed our excitement and gone warm. That low is tracking inside of SC chasing all of our cold air away.

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If theres a PV or 50/50 across SE canada, like the Euro is trying to show, then i would doubt it tracks so far north. But we need to watch those features in future runs.

Agree, we are going to need a decent low situated in SE Canada, somewhere near the Gulf of St Lawrence to keep a potential gulf system suppressed. The SE usually needs a 50/50 displaced and locked in south of the classic Newfoundland position. This is the 12z EC ens mean @ 192, it appears we may have some N Atlantic blocking working into the Labrador Sea even though this run keeps the NAO index neutral'ish in the long range. You can also see a pretty good trough moving through SE Canada where we would want a slp situated, and with the ridging to the north and east of there, a low could get locked in for a day or two presenting a window.

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH192.gif

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