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Southeast February Mid/Long Range Discussion II


Marion_NC_WX

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The Euro develops a low at day 8 NNE of Maine which just deepens and grows until the end of the run, we still have a ridge out west at 240. Not sure it's a good wintery pattern but it's cold.

Ridge is fairly well beaten down by 240 and the axis is over the Rockies, that is not a cold look for anyone but New England...brief cold shot and out...the great replaying winter of 2012....

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The Euro develops a low at day 8 NNE of Maine which just deepens and grows until the end of the run, we still have a ridge out west at 240. Not sure it's a good wintery pattern but it's cold.

am i looking at an old map? I really don't see a ridge, it looks very zonal on the pacific side, even though the atlantic looks really good.

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Ridge is fairly well beaten down by 240 and the axis is over the Rockies, that is not a cold look for anyone but New England...brief cold shot and out...the great replaying winter of 2012....

The trough has also been moving further west with each run.

And the euro has been horribly inconsistant beyond 6 days for a while now. The consistency in the long range has been with the gfs. Both models keep moving the trough westward.

I'm cautiously optimistic at this point.

EDIT Not to mention the end of this run is advertising some greenland ridging. I know its dangerous to extrapolate, but it appears the pv will be rotating down into the center of the conus, a reinforcing cold shot if you will.

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This is just an uber-negative AO on both the Euro and GEFs 12z means ...just wow.

Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years. Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off...

It means that once we lose the influence of the Alaskan vortex (PNA ridge), we can start benefiting (if you like winter anyway) from the changing global state that is already in progress for numerous areas ...

Positive height anomalies over the pole...

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Anyone want to predict what this afternoon's Euro weeklies will show for the SE US for the next four weeks? The excitement is building!

Cold cold cold! Does it even matter at this point? We have the Euro weeklies but we need snow now...kind of like those J.G. Wentworth commercials. I want the lump sum now!

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Agreed...the blocking going on now and coming up is just as impressive as any of the low-solar periods in the last few years.

Once we lose the protective Alaskan shield, all bets are off...

Didn't Admiral Ackbar say something similar in Return of the Jedi... :huh: It turned out well for him.

A cold and wintry pattern for two, maybe 3 weeks if we're lucky and then relaxes some by week 4. :weenie::):snowman:

I would take one week at this point - just to be reminded what cold air feels like.

Until there's evidence that the hyperactive PJ has slowed it's under-cutting some, I'm not convinced any cold air would stay longer than a day or two. Just my opinion.

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Well that should bout do it. :axe: They have been spot on all winter, no need to think they will be wrong now!!! :cry:

Thanks for the info!!!

I dissagree because if they are showing a torch now, then they just did an about face as the last one showed cold for the East.

They must be flip flopping just like the rest of the regular mid and long range models.

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I dissagree because if they are showing a torch now, then they just did an about face as the last one showed cold for the East.

They must be flip flopping just like the rest of the regular mid and long range models.

No, you're forgetting the main rule here: if they show cold, they're wrong or an outlier and not to be trusted. If they show warm, then they're a lock. ;)

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Folks,

The Euro weeklies are mainly warm with a -PNAish look for weeks 2-4 fwiw. The pollen is probably going to be going crazy this month being that the pine is already being seen. I may have to pay another visit to the beach soon lol. Of course, they could be dead wrong as they are far from perfect.

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